--- title: Vladimir Putin Survived the Wagner Group Rebellion—For Now description: History shows that incumbents often survive rebellions, coups, and challenges to their leadership—but not always for long. canonical: https://time.com/6290338/putin-wagner-rebellion-history/ author: Philip Elliott article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-06-26T19:57:13.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:24:46.072Z article:section: Politics og:title: Vladimir Putin Survived the Wagner Group Rebellion—For Now og:description: History shows that incumbents often survive challenges to their leadership—but not always for long. og:url: https://time.com/6290338/putin-wagner-rebellion-history/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf2af1c5247ff0878/698a3e2ccabb1db65be5183c/vladimir-putin-coup.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: RUSSIA-POLITICS og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Vladimir Putin Survived the Wagner Group Rebellion—For Now twitter:description: History shows that incumbents often survive challenges to their leadership—but not always for long. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf2af1c5247ff0878/698a3e2ccabb1db65be5183c/vladimir-putin-coup.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Vladimir Putin Survived the Wagner Group Rebellion. History Shows That Doesn’t Mean He’s Safe > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME D.C. Brief: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition D.C. Brief is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential context on the people, politics, and issues driving Washington. D.C. Brief goes beyond the Washington headlines to explain the politics, personalities and power dynamics shaping what happens next. Senior correspondent Philip Elliott brings sharp context to the issues driving the capital, connecting the decisions made in Washington to the institutions, industries and people they affect. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=d61555a8-083f-4cc0-b9c0-5e2421274787&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: TIME World Report: What's Next For Putin's Power [Watch (HLS stream): TIME World Report: What's Next For Putin's Power](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/Dlymjvhx.m3u8) (5:44)  _Published 2023-07-06. Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power._  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Jun 26, 2023 7:57 PM UTC Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24\. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power.  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Jun 26, 2023 7:57 PM UTC _This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up_ [_here_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite) _to get stories like this sent to your inbox._ Surviving a rebellion is not the same as winning one, be it in Moscow, Washington, London, or even Londonderry, N.H. It’s a tough lesson from history that is worth considering days after Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have [weathered](https://www.npr.org/2023/06/24/1184161169/russia-wagner-putin-analysis-prigozhin) the most serious [test](https://time.com/6290143/belarus-lukashenko-russia-wagner-group/) of his leadership to date, repelling a [mutiny](https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/) that, at least for a few hours over the [weekend](https://time.com/6289983/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-rebellion/), seemed as perilous as any stretch of Putin’s two-plus decades ruling Russia. By Monday, the Wagner Group’s revolt seemed to have petered out, [sending](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-uprising-saturday-intl/index.html) its architect into exile and [giving](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1) diplomats and spies in the West a chance to catch up and remind themselves just how much they still don’t know about Moscow and its vassal allies. Put another way, and borrowing from former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: Western intelligence parties have a number of “known unknowns” about Putin, what comes [after](https://time.com/6284209/after-vladimir-putins-rule-in-russia/) him, and the future of a vast former empire that stretches over 11 [time zones](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna33896769). With [nukes](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-positions-nuclear-bombs-belarus-warning-west-2023-06-16/) and [oil](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/25/economy/russia-chaos-oil-global-economy/index.html) both in play, not to mention strategic [considerations](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/india-russia-ties-under-scrutiny-as-moscow-moves-closer-to-china.html) about Russia’s geopolitical power _vis a vis_ China and India, there was a whole lot of Monday-morning discussion of Washington’s blind spots when it comes to its rival after being given the first tangible [evidence](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-protest-repression-dissent/) that the [invasion](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-changed-lives-0fb016f9eb055b189b2b46e282867168) of Ukraine may not be as popular as once argued inside the Kremlin. But there’s also this corollary: a [damaged](https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-survives-permanent-damage-prigozhin-wagner-mercenary-moscow-coup-rebellion-mutiny-ukraine-russia-58209cd8?mod=hp%5Fopin%5Fpos%5F6#cxrecs%5Fs) leader can survive this style of challenge. The power of incumbency is one that has few rivals. Being commander in chief of Russia’s military complex—and the world’s largest reserve of nuclear weapons—comes with an advantage. And the open secret is that it may not be in the West’s interest to have Putin ousted. A leadership vacuum in Russia could easily turn into a quagmire in the region, transitioning a [stable](https://time.com/6290068/china-russia-support-wagner-revolt/) and consistently vexing autocratic state into something approaching chaos. At the White House and State Department on Monday, spokesmen doubled-down on the standing assertion that the United States has no position in choosing Russia’s leaders. There’s a good reason for this vague diplospeak, and such a devil’s bargain is familiar to Russia wonks. As TIME’s W.J. Hennigan [writes](https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/), the threat of loose nukes is one that haunts Western policy hands to no end, “the stuff of nightmares.” At present there’s an accurate accounting of those nukes in an imperfect state, one that comes in between Venezuela and Republic of the Congo in [rankings](https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=asc&order=Total%20Score%20and%20Status) of civil and political freedoms. Autocracy, at least in this case, brings order. As Polish President Lech Walesa told George H.W. Bush during a 1991 period of uncertainty: “We are afraid of one thing in the Soviet Union—anarchy.” This isn’t the first time Washington has faced deep uncertainty in Moscow that could upend the global order. Mikhail Gorbachev [survived](https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/08/30/coup-attempt-mikhail-gorbachev/) his 1991 [coup](https://www.npr.org/2011/08/22/139843553/2-decades-ago-coup-attempt-helps-to-end-soviet-union) attempt that found him locked in his dacha, cut off from the outside world with encircled troops, and pressured to resign for health reasons. Gorbachev [prevailed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14560280) after a few tense days in August—yet, by December of that year, was giving a farewell address and watching as the Soviet Union dissolved. That’s the thing about the internal threats, be they military or political. The public can see weakness when seemingly invincible figures stumble. Once the aura is pierced, things can go south quickly. No matter the form of [government](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/08/tory-leadership-contest-thatcher-truss-sunak/671014/), wounded leaders often soon find themselves with a newly minted honorific: Ex-. A strong history rooted in democratic norms is no guarantee that a political rebellion can’t have similarly striking results. President Lyndon Johnson was the presumptive Democratic nominee for President in 1968 until anti-war Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota nearly [won](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/mccarthy-nearly-upsets-lbj-in-new-hampshire-primary-march-12-1968-220521) the New Hampshire primary and claimed 20 of its 24 delegates. A little less than three weeks later, LBJ was out of the race. It was similar when Ronald Reagan [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2016/03/13/470271684/1976-the-last-time-republicans-duked-it-out-to-the-last-heated-minute) incumbent President Gerald Ford in 1976 and Edward M. Kennedy [sought](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/686186156/how-ted-kennedys-80-challenge-to-president-carter-broke-the-democratic-party) to deny Jimmy Carter re-nomination in 1980\. Both men won re-nomination and then lost the general election in November of those years. In the U.K., Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher [faced](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/12/what-happened-in-previous-tory-leadership-challenges) her own Tory revolt in 1990, prevailed on the first round of voting, but a quick-moving Cabinet revolt forced the end of an 11-year run. For now, Putin survived the challenge. Even in its [weakened](https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe) and [distracted](https://www.newsweek.com/moscows-early-missteps-have-left-russian-army-weakened-now-1786502) form, the Russian military was never likely to allow a band of mercenaries to overthrow a government—unless those professional troops believed in the cause. For now, they are not joining the rebels. But that doesn’t mean they won’t hear the [echoes](https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,973738,00.html) of [1917](https://time.com/4798229/1917-russian-revolution-excerpt/)—or 1991—and suddenly remember how to march. After all, history is a tough mistress to defy. _Make sense of what matters in Washington._ [_Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite)_._ ## Transcript [00:05] On June 24th this year, we saw some of the most dramatic [00:09] events play out. [00:10] I think in puta, naira, Russia. [00:13] Where we had an armed rebellion of one faction of the Russian [00:17] Armed Forces, marching on Moscow, with tanks taking over a few [00:23] big Russian cities, and taking them very easily without much [00:28] resistance. And the importance of that is I think that it shook [00:32] the authority of President Vladimir Putin to the core. [00:35] I think it's it's it's a level of weakness and uncertainty [00:40] and in his grip on power that I haven't seen in 15 years of [00:43] reporting on Russia. [00:46] The mutineer. It's it's a it's a term used to hear associated [00:50] with pirates and Buccaneers but it's kind of a useful way to think [00:54] actually about the Wagner group and you've guinea pig ocean. [00:57] It's Commander, they are a private Army, [01:00] a mercenary force of paramilitary force that operates within [01:05] the blue kind of brought her umbrella of the Russian Armed Forces, [01:07] but very much Independence and then pretty autonomous [01:11] more and more. [01:12] So as the war in Ukraine has been folded over the last year [01:15] and a half or so you can guinea pig, [01:17] ocean has spent months during the war, in [01:19] Ukraine, complaining against the, the commanders of the Russian [01:24] military saying that they are not providing him with enough [01:26] weapons enough ammunition that they are ineffective incompetent [01:30] and trying to kind of Steel Authority from them. [01:35] They've got more and more independent, confident better armed [01:40] and I think that Independence is, what gave the commander? [01:43] You've been here for the Gordon, the confidence. [01:46] And that would spur to declare this Mutiny and go to war against [01:51] basically the rest of the Armed Forces. [01:53] Is very hard to say how this is going to play out from now [01:58] on there does seem to be at least the beginnings of a purge [02:02] going on within the Russian Elites in response to this. [02:04] I haven't been to Moscow since 2015 when they expelled me from [02:07] the country, certainly in the last few months, [02:11] it has been rare for Western journalists to go in there very [02:17] consistently. The the regime has gone after every layer of the [02:22] media. So now the level of of control that the regime has and [02:28] exerts over the media is so extreme that. [02:31] It's very hard to find independent sources of information. [02:34] We've seen already at least one Russian general, [02:38] who was close to there to the rebel faction arrested, [02:42] in General Store, avakin better known in the Russian media. [02:45] At least is General Armageddon for the absolutely rampant [02:50] and horrible war crimes that he's been accused of he was in charge [02:53] For a period of a few months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [02:58] Then was removed from that command generals, [03:00] Aurora Beacon is an ally of the rebel commander for Goshen. [03:05] They were quite close. [03:06] It seems that the General survey can has been detained or arrested [03:09] because of his connections to to this Rebel faction. [03:12] There's an effort now, to weed out or two to figure out within [03:16] the Russian Elites, who was aligned with, [03:19] with this Rebellion, who was potentially helping them, [03:22] or giving them information, or where that they were planning [03:24] this Mutiny. So that's going to play out certainly in the coming [03:27] days, if not weeks. [03:28] And again the rebel commander is still free, [03:32] he's been given leave as far as we know. [03:36] So there is still this kind of Rebel faction. [03:39] That is not being dismantled, they're still around and they [03:45] still can serve as a kind of Alternative Center of power alternative [03:50] center of gravity for any factions within Rush. [03:53] Within the Russian to leave within the Russian military [03:55] to gravitate towards in opposition to President Vladimir [03:59] Putin. I think one thing that's been very consistent and Putin, [04:03] the 23 years in power is the key was the man at the top of [04:07] the pyramid, at the top of what he called the vertical of [04:10] power, this kind of great Machinery of the states where [04:15] he was at the wheel and all of the other elements of this, [04:18] this machine all the different Clans and towers of the Kremlin. [04:22] They might fight with each other, but Putin was always the kind [04:24] of arbiter above them all. [04:26] Who could settle disputes and who could put people in their [04:31] place when they challenge the system. [04:32] But I think Putin himself is still trying to Parson understand [04:36] just How Deeply the foundations of his authority have been shaken [04:40] and I think an intuitive Lee has his approach to doing that [04:43] is to look for the traders, to try to find them. [04:45] But also mindful of the fact that if there are more traitors [04:49] than he thinks, they could still United band together against [04:53] If he cracks down too hard so it's quite a delicate Balancing [04:57] Act. If he has to strike, right? [04:58] He needs to put down the rebellion and control the treasonous [05:03] factions within the Russian Elites, but he can't do it so harshly [05:06] and end so openly that they have a mind to unite again and maybe [05:12] make another attempt to, to take Moscow. [05:14] But I think I would expect that the Putin will now impose [05:18] even harsher controls over the Elites in and try to weed out [05:24] a rest. If not kill enemies that he sees around him that he imagines [05:29] around him. That certainly has been that the historical [05:32] pattern that we've seen in inside the Kremlin and within the [05:36] Russian leadership for hundreds of years. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6290338/putin-wagner-rebellion-history/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6290338/putin-wagner-rebellion-history/"},"headline":"Vladimir Putin Survived the Wagner Group Rebellion. 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