--- title: Wagner's Revolt in Russia Stirred Fears of a Nuclear Crisis description: It's the stuff of nightmares for an American president: the loss of a single Russian nuclear warhead into the hands of a bad actor. canonical: https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/ author: W.J. Hennigan article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-06-26T15:17:25.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:24:44.365Z article:section: Politics og:title: Wagner's Revolt in Russia Stirred Fears of a Nuclear Crisis og:description: It's the stuff of nightmares for an American president: the loss of a Russian warhead into the hands of a bad actor og:url: https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltddf691fb70bf1435/698a3e2847ca38b7ad3bae4a/russia.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 6000 og:image:height: 3375 og:image:alt: Russia Political Infighting og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Wagner's Revolt in Russia Stirred Fears of a Nuclear Crisis twitter:description: It's the stuff of nightmares for an American president: the loss of a Russian warhead into the hands of a bad actor twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltddf691fb70bf1435/698a3e2847ca38b7ad3bae4a/russia.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Wagner's Revolt in Russia Stirred Fears of a Nuclear Crisis > Sponsored content. 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Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power._  by [W.J. Hennigan](https://time.com/author/w-j-hennigan/)  ## W.J. Hennigan Jun 26, 2023 3:17 PM UTC Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24\. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power.  by [W.J. Hennigan](https://time.com/author/w-j-hennigan/)  ## W.J. Hennigan Jun 26, 2023 3:17 PM UTC A defiant mercenary commander’s fleeting march on Moscow over the weekend sparked concerns among Western intelligence analysts about the stability of Russia’s military command and the security of the nation’s vast nuclear arsenal. U.S. officials say they haven’t seen any difference in the disposition of Russian nuclear forces since Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, led his private army toward the nation’s capital. Wagner forces seized a key military facility in southern Russia on Friday and pushed northward through Russia’s central Voronezh region, where Russia maintains a nuclear-weapon storage facility under the command of the 12th Chief Directorate of the Ministry of Defense (MOD). The dramatic putsch ended Saturday when Prigozhin reached a deal with the Kremlin and halted the convoy about 120 miles south of Moscow. Though the immediate crisis was averted, U.S. intelligence remains vigilant, looking for signs of vulnerability to the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. The officials say the U.S. military has no reason to adjust conventional or nuclear-force postures and emphasized the Biden Administration continues to maintain long-standing, established hotlines and channels with Russia on nuclear issues. But the officials say Russia has a special responsibility to keep command, control, and custody of its nuclear forces and to ensure that no actions are taken that imperil strategic stability. “Of course, when we’re dealing with a major power, and especially a major power that has nuclear weapons, that’s something that’s of concern,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken [told CBS on Sunday](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-full-transcript-06-25-2023/). “We haven’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture. There hasn’t been any change in ours, but it’s something we’re going to watch very, very carefully.” **Read more:** [_Fearing 3-Way Arms Race, U.S. Seeks Nuclear Talks With Russia and China._](https://time.com/6284556/nuclear-weapons-talks-us-russia-china/) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told [the state-owned RT television network](https://russian.rt.com/world/news/1166902-lavrov-ssha-signaly-myatezh) Monday that Lynne Tracy, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry during the revolt to ensure the security of Russian nuclear weapons and the safety of U.S. diplomats working inside the country. Military and nuclear-security experts believe there was little risk Prigozhin or his forces would attempt to obtain the weapons at the Voronezh-45 base or any other installation throughout the country. But the short-lived uprising against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government nonetheless highlights concerns in Washington about the safety and security of Russia’s nuclear weapons. It’s the stuff of nightmares for an American president: the loss of a single Russian nuclear warhead into the hands of a terrorist group, rogue nation, or other bad actor. Securing Soviet “loose nukes” has been a top priority for Republican and Democrat Administrations alike since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991\. The U.S. [spent billions of dollars](https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-the-nunn-lugar-cooperative-threat-reduction-program-2/) aimed at establishing methods to prevent the loss, theft, or sale of the Soviet arsenal of 27,000 weapons, along with its bomb-grade plutonium and uranium. Russia’s nuclear-storage system is anchored by [12 central storage sites](https://russianforces.org/maps/Russia-12thGUMO.html), such as Voronezh-45, and about 35 base-level storage facilities, says Pavel Podvig, a nuclear security and arms-control expert who leads the Russian Nuclear Forces Project. [Under Russian doctrine, he says](https://russianforces.org/blog/2022/10/non-strategic%5Fweapons%5Fstorage%5F.shtml), weapons are stored separately from the planes, missiles, and systems that deliver them. “The storage sites are reasonably well-guarded, and I don’t see why Wagner would divert resources to get something they cannot use and that can get them in serious trouble,” Podvig says. **Read More:** [_Putin Suspended the Last Remaining Nuclear Pact With the U.S. Here’s What Happens Now._](https://time.com/6257209/putin-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty/) Long-term nuclear weapon storage sites are located inside areas that can be described as a military base within another military base. The areas are constantly surveilled and surrounded with barbed wire fences and guard posts. The warheads are inside concrete and steel bunkers. Affixed to the weapons are electronic safeguards, known as permissive action links, which are code-accessed and designed to rendered the weapons unusable if an unauthorized person attempts to arm them. The seizure of a nuclear weapons site would escalate a dramatic domestic dispute into a full-blown global crisis. But Olga Oliker, the International Crisis Group’s director for Europe and Central Asia, says there aren’t many scenarios in which a paramilitary force like Wagner would be able to operationalize the nuclear weapons or find a strategic use for them. “The first is really set up to be quite difficult. The second is just hard to imagine,” she says. “Russian weapons and facilities are under solid control and there’s no evidence that Wagner or anyone else is looking to capture them. Not only would they be tremendously difficult to gain use of, there’s no real logic for doing so. What would they do with them?” **Read More:** [_Inside the Race to Arm Ukraine._](https://time.com/6274688/arming-ukraine-counteroffensive/) Forces with the 12th Chief Directorate of the MOD, which are charged with protecting, maintaining and—if called upon—delivering Russia’s nuclear weapons aren’t likely to open its door to Wagner, says Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher who studies weapons of mass destruction at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. “The forces of 12th MOD main directorate have reasons to protect them really well,” he says. But Baklitskiy admits that if Wagner kept up its push to Moscow, and had the fighting somehow escalated into “a full scale civil war, we would be in an uncharted territory.” U.S. intelligence had picked up signs that the rift between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu could break open in a sudden and dramatic way, officials said, but they had not anticipated how little resistance Russian forces would put up in the face of Wagner’s advance. The mercenaries’ military vehicles pushed eastward from Ukraine to the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where they briefly occupied the military headquarters, then went north. They were about two hours from Moscow when the announcement came that a deal had been struck. _TIME receives support for nuclear security coverage from the_ [_Outrider Foundation_](https://outrider.org/)_. TIME is solely responsible for all content._ ## Transcript [00:05] On June 24th this year, we saw some of the most dramatic [00:09] events play out. [00:10] I think in puta, naira, Russia. [00:13] Where we had an armed rebellion of one faction of the Russian [00:17] Armed Forces, marching on Moscow, with tanks taking over a few [00:23] big Russian cities, and taking them very easily without much [00:28] resistance. And the importance of that is I think that it shook [00:32] the authority of President Vladimir Putin to the core. [00:35] I think it's it's it's a level of weakness and uncertainty [00:40] and in his grip on power that I haven't seen in 15 years of [00:43] reporting on Russia. [00:46] The mutineer. It's it's a it's a term used to hear associated [00:50] with pirates and Buccaneers but it's kind of a useful way to think [00:54] actually about the Wagner group and you've guinea pig ocean. [00:57] It's Commander, they are a private Army, [01:00] a mercenary force of paramilitary force that operates within [01:05] the blue kind of brought her umbrella of the Russian Armed Forces, [01:07] but very much Independence and then pretty autonomous [01:11] more and more. [01:12] So as the war in Ukraine has been folded over the last year [01:15] and a half or so you can guinea pig, [01:17] ocean has spent months during the war, in [01:19] Ukraine, complaining against the, the commanders of the Russian [01:24] military saying that they are not providing him with enough [01:26] weapons enough ammunition that they are ineffective incompetent [01:30] and trying to kind of Steel Authority from them. [01:35] They've got more and more independent, confident better armed [01:40] and I think that Independence is, what gave the commander? [01:43] You've been here for the Gordon, the confidence. [01:46] And that would spur to declare this Mutiny and go to war against [01:51] basically the rest of the Armed Forces. [01:53] Is very hard to say how this is going to play out from now [01:58] on there does seem to be at least the beginnings of a purge [02:02] going on within the Russian Elites in response to this. [02:04] I haven't been to Moscow since 2015 when they expelled me from [02:07] the country, certainly in the last few months, [02:11] it has been rare for Western journalists to go in there very [02:17] consistently. The the regime has gone after every layer of the [02:22] media. So now the level of of control that the regime has and [02:28] exerts over the media is so extreme that. [02:31] It's very hard to find independent sources of information. [02:34] We've seen already at least one Russian general, [02:38] who was close to there to the rebel faction arrested, [02:42] in General Store, avakin better known in the Russian media. [02:45] At least is General Armageddon for the absolutely rampant [02:50] and horrible war crimes that he's been accused of he was in charge [02:53] For a period of a few months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [02:58] Then was removed from that command generals, [03:00] Aurora Beacon is an ally of the rebel commander for Goshen. [03:05] They were quite close. [03:06] It seems that the General survey can has been detained or arrested [03:09] because of his connections to to this Rebel faction. [03:12] There's an effort now, to weed out or two to figure out within [03:16] the Russian Elites, who was aligned with, [03:19] with this Rebellion, who was potentially helping them, [03:22] or giving them information, or where that they were planning [03:24] this Mutiny. So that's going to play out certainly in the coming [03:27] days, if not weeks. [03:28] And again the rebel commander is still free, [03:32] he's been given leave as far as we know. [03:36] So there is still this kind of Rebel faction. [03:39] That is not being dismantled, they're still around and they [03:45] still can serve as a kind of Alternative Center of power alternative [03:50] center of gravity for any factions within Rush. [03:53] Within the Russian to leave within the Russian military [03:55] to gravitate towards in opposition to President Vladimir [03:59] Putin. I think one thing that's been very consistent and Putin, [04:03] the 23 years in power is the key was the man at the top of [04:07] the pyramid, at the top of what he called the vertical of [04:10] power, this kind of great Machinery of the states where [04:15] he was at the wheel and all of the other elements of this, [04:18] this machine all the different Clans and towers of the Kremlin. [04:22] They might fight with each other, but Putin was always the kind [04:24] of arbiter above them all. [04:26] Who could settle disputes and who could put people in their [04:31] place when they challenge the system. [04:32] But I think Putin himself is still trying to Parson understand [04:36] just How Deeply the foundations of his authority have been shaken [04:40] and I think an intuitive Lee has his approach to doing that [04:43] is to look for the traders, to try to find them. [04:45] But also mindful of the fact that if there are more traitors [04:49] than he thinks, they could still United band together against [04:53] If he cracks down too hard so it's quite a delicate Balancing [04:57] Act. If he has to strike, right? [04:58] He needs to put down the rebellion and control the treasonous [05:03] factions within the Russian Elites, but he can't do it so harshly [05:06] and end so openly that they have a mind to unite again and maybe [05:12] make another attempt to, to take Moscow. [05:14] But I think I would expect that the Putin will now impose [05:18] even harsher controls over the Elites in and try to weed out [05:24] a rest. If not kill enemies that he sees around him that he imagines [05:29] around him. That certainly has been that the historical [05:32] pattern that we've seen in inside the Kremlin and within the [05:36] Russian leadership for hundreds of years. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/"},"headline":"Wagner's Revolt in Russia Stirred Fears of a Nuclear Crisis","datePublished":"2023-06-26T15:17:25.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-19T07:24:44.365Z","description":"It's the stuff of nightmares for an American president: the loss of a Russian nuclear warhead into the hands of a bad actor.","url":"https://time.com/6290060/wagner-russia-prigozhin-nuclear-crisis-fears/","keywords":["National Security","Explainer","uspoliticspolicy"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltddf691fb70bf1435/698a3e2847ca38b7ad3bae4a/russia.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"W.J. 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