--- title: What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia description: Candace Rondeaux on who might come out ahead in the aftermath canonical: https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/ author: Candace Rondeaux article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-06-26T15:35:51.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:24:44.780Z article:section: Ideas og:title: What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia og:description: Candace Rondeaux on who might come out ahead in the aftermath og:url: https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf3744723e7e2e1a9/698a3e27b3fce337050ca966/wagner-group-russia-coup-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: wagner-group-russia-coup-01 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia twitter:description: Candace Rondeaux on who might come out ahead in the aftermath twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf3744723e7e2e1a9/698a3e27b3fce337050ca966/wagner-group-russia-coup-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 video:duration: 05:44 video:published: 2023-07-06 section: world topics: Russian politics, Wagner Group, armed rebellion, Vladimir Putin, Russian elites, military leadership, Ukraine war, power struggle, Kremlin control, media control genre: news analysis, video report tones: analytical, serious, cautious, urgent emotions: concern (high), uncertainty (high), suspicion (medium), vigilance (medium) sentiment: negative audience: news readers, policy followers, international affairs audiences, Russia watchers people: Simon Shuster, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Surovikin organizations: TIME, Wagner Group, Russian Armed Forces, Kremlin content_suitability: war [00:05-05:44]; violence [00:05-01:12]; politics [00:00-05:44]; crime [02:02-03:28]; war [02:02-03:00] transcript_source: publisher captions transcript_reviewed: not applicable ---  # What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=7bfd2ce7-12f4-44b0-86ac-fd27c962ff0b&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: TIME World Report: What's Next For Putin's Power [Watch (HLS stream): TIME World Report: What's Next For Putin's Power](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/Dlymjvhx.m3u8) (5:44)  _Published 2023-07-06. Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power._ Description, summary, key points, chapters, key quotes, questions and transcript, where present, were produced automatically from the video or its captions and were not reviewed. ## Summary Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster discusses the armed rebellion by the Wagner Group against the Russian military and what it means for Vladimir Putin's authority. He describes the rebel force's seizure of cities, the growing rift between Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the military leadership, and the arrest of a general linked to the rebellion. He concludes that Putin faces a delicate balancing act between punishing disloyal elites and avoiding renewed unity among them. ## Key points - Shuster calls the June 24 armed rebellion by one faction of the Russian Armed Forces the most dramatic event he has seen, with tanks taking several large Russian cities with little resistance. (00:05) - Shuster says the rebellion shook Putin's authority to the core and reflects a level of weakness and uncertainty in his grip on power he has not seen in 15 years of reporting on Russia. (00:28) - The Wagner Group is described as a private army and mercenary paramilitary force operating within the umbrella of the Russian Armed Forces but growing increasingly independent and autonomous. (00:57) - During the war in Ukraine, Wagner's commander complained that Russian military commanders were not providing enough weapons and ammunition and were ineffective and incompetent. (01:12) - Shuster says the Wagner commander's growing independence and confidence led him to declare the mutiny and go to war against the rest of the Armed Forces. (01:40) - A Russian general close to the rebel commander, identified as Surovikin, has been detained or arrested because of his connections to the rebel faction. (03:00) - Shuster says the rebel commander remains free and has apparently been given leave, so the rebel faction has not been dismantled and could serve as an alternative center of gravity against Putin. (03:32) - Shuster says Putin must balance punishing the rebellion and disloyal elites against cracking down so harshly that the elites unite again and attempt another move on Moscow. (04:53) ## Chapters - [00:00 to 01:12] The June 24 armed rebellion. Shuster describes the Wagner-led armed rebellion, its seizure of Russian cities, and its perceived effect on Putin's authority. - [01:12 to 02:02] Wagner's rise and rift with the military. Shuster explains Wagner's growing independence and its commander's complaints about Russian military leadership during the Ukraine war. - [02:02 to 03:28] Arrests and the search for traitors. Shuster outlines the arrest of a general linked to the rebellion and the effort to identify elites who aligned with it. - [03:28 to 04:26] Putin's vertical of power. Shuster discusses the rebel faction still being active and Putin's historic role as arbiter over the competing elite clans. - [04:26 to 05:44] Putin's delicate balancing act. Shuster predicts harsher controls over elites and explains the risk that harsh crackdowns could unite disloyal factions. ## Key quotes - [00:28] Simon Shuster: "it shook the authority of President Vladimir Putin to the core." - [01:12] Simon Shuster: "a private Army, a mercenary force of paramilitary force that operates within the blue kind of brought her umbrella of the Russian Armed Forces" - [03:32] Simon Shuster: "And again the rebel commander is still free, he's been given leave as far as we know." - [04:26] Simon Shuster: "Putin was always the kind of arbiter above them all." - [04:53] Simon Shuster: "He needs to put down the rebellion and control the treasonous factions within the Russian Elites" ## Questions this video answers - What was the June 24 armed rebellion in Russia? [00:05] - Why does the Wagner Group's independence matter for Putin's power? [00:57] - Why did the Wagner commander turn against the Russian military? [01:40] - What happened to the general connected to the rebel commander? [03:00] - How might Putin respond to the rebellion without weakening his position further? [04:53] ## Content suitability - war [00:05-05:44]: Discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war and armed conflict within Russia. - violence [00:05-01:12]: Armed rebellion with tanks seizing cities. - politics [00:00-05:44]: Coverage of Putin's power, elite purges, and state control. - crime [02:02-03:28]: Arrests of officials linked to the rebellion and accusations of treason. - war [02:02-03:00]: Reference to war crimes allegations against a detained general. by [Candace Rondeaux](https://time.com/author/candace-rondeaux/) ## Candace Rondeaux Jun 26, 2023 3:35 PM UTC Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24\. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster explains what this insurrection means for Putin's power. by [Candace Rondeaux](https://time.com/author/candace-rondeaux/) ## Candace Rondeaux Jun 26, 2023 3:35 PM UTC A few days out from the Wagner Group’s [mutiny](https://time.com/6289983/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-rebellion/) against the Kremlin it is hard to know who is the biggest loser. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin looks weaker by the hour as he struggles to manage the fallout. Wagner’s chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin is possibly somewhere in [Belarus](https://time.com/6289991/wagner-rebellion-russia-prigozhin-putin/) now, presumably under some form of lock and key. The mercenary commanders who joined him on his 24-hour march on Moscow are nowhere to be found. Losers aside, all this suggests that the likely biggest winner will be Ukraine. Still, much remains unexplained. Why did Putin let Prigozhin off the hook? What are the long-term implications? To answer these questions, we have to wind back the clock and examine the precipitating causes. There are a few ways to look at Prigozhin’s revolt. If you buy Prigozhin’s stated reasoning, the so-called “March for Justice,” was the only logical option after factions in Russia’s conventional forces first deprived Wagner of ammunition and then attacked Prigozhin’s paramilitary cadre as they exited Bakhmut. Putin’s version of the story is that it was a “stab in the back.” In [his emergency address](http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/71496) to the nation during the crisis, Putin termed it a divisive, “treasonous” distraction from the unity required to achieve victory in Ukraine that revived the fratricidal days of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Either way, it appears likely the incident is the first episode in a dramatic finale season long series about the end of Putin’s 24-year-long regime. Prigozhin said he [ordered](https://time.com/6289983/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-rebellion/) 25,000 fighters to drive from a Russian cantonment in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don north to Moscow to demand that Russia’s defense leaders explain why they had prosecuted the war so ineptly. The action came on the heels of Prigozhin’s months-long campaign aimed at ousting Russia’s minister of defense Sergey Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov. He blamed them for a failed strategy and for abysmally high Russian casualty rates, channeling frustrations heard all along the frontline and across Russia’s right-wing ultranationalist factions. Now it seems the fate of Shoigu and Gerasimov hangs in the balance, and while Prigozhin and Putin remain alive they will both presumably be looking over their shoulder.  Members of the Wagner Group prepare to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. Stringer/AFP/Getty Images Russian battlefield strategy, Prigozhin complained last spring, lacked the aggressive edge needed to win and dominate. So he and his Wagner Group troops dove in, launching human wave attacks spearheaded by thousands of ex-prisoners over the summer and fall in what he dubbed “[Operation Bakhmut Meat Grinder](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-throws-more-soldiers-bakhmut-donetsk-region-ukraine-war-ahead-vladimir-putin-victory-day-parade/).” When the stark realities of artillery heavy trench warfare began to sink in on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides over the winter Prigozhin then complained that he did not have enough ammunition to break through the line of contact. As early as April, he began signaling that he feared a stalemate or worse was imminent in Bakhmut. Next came a series of dramatic cry wolf threats from Prigozhin–including a gruesome scene where he shouted at Shoigu and Gerasimov [on camera](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-bALDPCp4w) as he stood in a field strewn with Wagner Group corpses. Prigozhin repeatedly said that he planned to pull Wagner forces out of the decimated city in eastern Donbas. He then announced a full withdrawal of his paramilitary contingent at the end of May. It was then that Shoigu, Prigozhin’s longtime administrative paymaster, saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. A stalemated Wagner Group signaled a vulnerable Prigozhin, and a potential path to finally bringing Russia’s irregular paramilitary contingent under Moscow’s full control. In theory, that could have given Russia’s defense leaders the ace in the hole they needed to beat back Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Shoigu, however, badly miscalculated. Prigozhin refused to sign his forces over, and chaos soon ensued. Prigozhin’s political base had grown exponentially by that point, and, as my team of researchers at Arizona State University and New America have [documented](https://www.newamerica.org/future-frontlines/uncovering-the-wagner-group/), his powerful propaganda machine had succeeded in rallying millions to his cause online. Shoigu also apparently failed to account for the possibility that he lacked full control over Russia’s security forces. While the waves of military defections Prigozhin had undoubtedly been counting on this past weekend did not materialize Wagner fighters were still able to drive from the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don to the outskirts of Russia’s capital on Friday virtually unopposed. Prigozhin seemed to luck out again when agreed on Saturday to a deal brokered by Alexander Lukashenka, the president of Belarus, that called for Putin to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin. The eleventh-hour bargain also apparently resulted in safe passage and amnesty for Wagner fighters who stayed on the sidelines during the rebellion. In a final blow to Shoigu that he is unlikely to live down, crowds in Rostov-on-Don then cheered Prigozhin as he departed for Belarus. In that brief moment, it appeared that Prigozhin had won by losing. Shoigu and Putin, on the other hand, looked like two men poised to take a long walk off a short plank.  Head of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaving the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. Stringer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images It is doubtful either Putin or Prigozhin counted on this strange outcome. Now Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the world await answers about what comes next. It seems like a no-brainer that Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelensky will find a way to capitalize on all the instability. Indeed, he said as much in a [speech](https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023/06/25/the-longer-the-russian-aggression-lasts-the-more-degradation-it-causes-in-russia-itself-%E2%80%93-address-by-the-president-of-ukraine/) he gave in Kyiv shortly after the Wagner Group mutiny subsided. Zelensky pointedly mentioned that at that very moment, Ukrainian officials were discussing prospects for a peace deal with Russia in Copenhagen, Denmark with leaders from Türkiye, India, Japan, South Africa, and the European Union. The contours of Zelensky’s “Peace Formula,” as he calls it, are still taking shape, but there is no question that settling the status of Crimea and Russian occupied territories in Donbas as well as reparations and payments for reconstruction in Ukraine will be key to any deal. Now, however, it seems reasonable to ask whether Prigozhin’s reported banishment to Belarus will become part of the horse trading, too. With Putin looking more and more like a lame duck, and an instrument in the hands of squabbling factions of oligarchs and security heavies, Prigozhin could easily become a sacrificial pawn. He might be offered up for prosecution in an international tribunal in exchange for an off ramp from Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine. A tribunal may seem wishful thinking, and Prigozhin may have a hard time avoiding strong Kremlin tea as he peers out of open windows. But there is certainly enough concrete evidence of the Wagner Group’s involvement in crimes against humanity in Ukraine, and other hotspots in the Middle East and Africa. Zelensky and his allies in the West, meanwhile, are highly incentivized to ensure that irregular Russian forces are taken off the chess board for good. Either way, there’s no way forward but down for Prigozhin, Putin, and those who have backed them. That does not bode well for stability in Russia or the world. ## Transcript [00:05] On June 24th this year, we saw some of the most dramatic [00:09] events play out. [00:10] I think in puta, naira, Russia. [00:13] Where we had an armed rebellion of one faction of the Russian [00:17] Armed Forces, marching on Moscow, with tanks taking over a few [00:23] big Russian cities, and taking them very easily without much [00:28] resistance. And the importance of that is I think that it shook [00:32] the authority of President Vladimir Putin to the core. [00:35] I think it's it's it's a level of weakness and uncertainty [00:40] and in his grip on power that I haven't seen in 15 years of [00:43] reporting on Russia. [00:46] The mutineer. It's it's a it's a term used to hear associated [00:50] with pirates and Buccaneers but it's kind of a useful way to think [00:54] actually about the Wagner group and you've guinea pig ocean. [00:57] It's Commander, they are a private Army, [01:00] a mercenary force of paramilitary force that operates within [01:05] the blue kind of brought her umbrella of the Russian Armed Forces, [01:07] but very much Independence and then pretty autonomous [01:11] more and more. [01:12] So as the war in Ukraine has been folded over the last year [01:15] and a half or so you can guinea pig, [01:17] ocean has spent months during the war, in [01:19] Ukraine, complaining against the, the commanders of the Russian [01:24] military saying that they are not providing him with enough [01:26] weapons enough ammunition that they are ineffective incompetent [01:30] and trying to kind of Steel Authority from them. [01:35] They've got more and more independent, confident better armed [01:40] and I think that Independence is, what gave the commander? [01:43] You've been here for the Gordon, the confidence. [01:46] And that would spur to declare this Mutiny and go to war against [01:51] basically the rest of the Armed Forces. [01:53] Is very hard to say how this is going to play out from now [01:58] on there does seem to be at least the beginnings of a purge [02:02] going on within the Russian Elites in response to this. [02:04] I haven't been to Moscow since 2015 when they expelled me from [02:07] the country, certainly in the last few months, [02:11] it has been rare for Western journalists to go in there very [02:17] consistently. The the regime has gone after every layer of the [02:22] media. So now the level of of control that the regime has and [02:28] exerts over the media is so extreme that. [02:31] It's very hard to find independent sources of information. [02:34] We've seen already at least one Russian general, [02:38] who was close to there to the rebel faction arrested, [02:42] in General Store, avakin better known in the Russian media. [02:45] At least is General Armageddon for the absolutely rampant [02:50] and horrible war crimes that he's been accused of he was in charge [02:53] For a period of a few months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [02:58] Then was removed from that command generals, [03:00] Aurora Beacon is an ally of the rebel commander for Goshen. [03:05] They were quite close. [03:06] It seems that the General survey can has been detained or arrested [03:09] because of his connections to to this Rebel faction. [03:12] There's an effort now, to weed out or two to figure out within [03:16] the Russian Elites, who was aligned with, [03:19] with this Rebellion, who was potentially helping them, [03:22] or giving them information, or where that they were planning [03:24] this Mutiny. So that's going to play out certainly in the coming [03:27] days, if not weeks. [03:28] And again the rebel commander is still free, [03:32] he's been given leave as far as we know. [03:36] So there is still this kind of Rebel faction. [03:39] That is not being dismantled, they're still around and they [03:45] still can serve as a kind of Alternative Center of power alternative [03:50] center of gravity for any factions within Rush. [03:53] Within the Russian to leave within the Russian military [03:55] to gravitate towards in opposition to President Vladimir [03:59] Putin. I think one thing that's been very consistent and Putin, [04:03] the 23 years in power is the key was the man at the top of [04:07] the pyramid, at the top of what he called the vertical of [04:10] power, this kind of great Machinery of the states where [04:15] he was at the wheel and all of the other elements of this, [04:18] this machine all the different Clans and towers of the Kremlin. [04:22] They might fight with each other, but Putin was always the kind [04:24] of arbiter above them all. [04:26] Who could settle disputes and who could put people in their [04:31] place when they challenge the system. [04:32] But I think Putin himself is still trying to Parson understand [04:36] just How Deeply the foundations of his authority have been shaken [04:40] and I think an intuitive Lee has his approach to doing that [04:43] is to look for the traders, to try to find them. [04:45] But also mindful of the fact that if there are more traitors [04:49] than he thinks, they could still United band together against [04:53] If he cracks down too hard so it's quite a delicate Balancing [04:57] Act. If he has to strike, right? [04:58] He needs to put down the rebellion and control the treasonous [05:03] factions within the Russian Elites, but he can't do it so harshly [05:06] and end so openly that they have a mind to unite again and maybe [05:12] make another attempt to, to take Moscow. [05:14] But I think I would expect that the Putin will now impose [05:18] even harsher controls over the Elites in and try to weed out [05:24] a rest. If not kill enemies that he sees around him that he imagines [05:29] around him. That certainly has been that the historical [05:32] pattern that we've seen in inside the Kremlin and within the [05:36] Russian leadership for hundreds of years. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/"},"headline":"What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia","datePublished":"2023-06-26T15:35:51.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-19T07:24:44.780Z","description":"Candace Rondeaux on who might come out ahead in the aftermath","url":"https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/","keywords":["russia","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf3744723e7e2e1a9/698a3e27b3fce337050ca966/wagner-group-russia-coup-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Candace Rondeaux","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/candace-rondeaux/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf3744723e7e2e1a9/698a3e27b3fce337050ca966/wagner-group-russia-coup-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"wagner-group-russia-coup-01","caption":"A member of the Wagner group stands guard outside the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don","creditText":"Stringer/AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/tag/russia/","name":"russia"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6290163/wagner-mutiny-russia/","name":"What Led to Wagner's Mutiny in Russia"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"TIME World Report: What's Next For Putin's Power","description":"Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his authority in decades when the mutinous Wagner Group seized major cities in an armed rebellion against the Russian military on June 24. 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