How Hurricane Helene Could Impact the 2024 Election in North Carolina

Hurricane Helene’s aftermath could disrupt voting in the 2024 election for North Carolina residents, leaving election officials scrambling to contain the fallout in a crucial swing state.

Experts worry that the storm could reduce voter turnout, disrupt ballot delivery, or hamper accurate polling in a state with slim margins. 

“It’s going to be more difficult for people to vote,” says Jason M. Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. “And, quite frankly, given the challenges these people are facing, voting is probably going to be much farther down on the list of priorities than it otherwise would be.”

State officials passed emergency measures on Monday to make it easier for disaster victims to cast their ballots in the battleground state. The bipartisan North Carolina State Board of Elections unanimously approved changes in 13 counties where infrastructure, access to polling places, and postal services are likely to continue to be disrupted through the election, the board’s Executive Director Karen Brinson Bell said in a press conference. Some of the changes include allowing county boards of elections to change early voting and Election Day voting locations with a bipartisan majority vote, recruiting more poll workers, and allowing voters to drop off their completed absentee ballots at any county board of elections office by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

“This disaster is not just affecting how we conduct elections; it’s affecting day-to-day life, and many of these communities will be without power, without water, without internet, without cell service, potentially for weeks,” Bell said. “Our job is to figure out, as long as there are citizens in those communities, how do we provide them with voting opportunities so that they can exercise their right to vote?”

The state’s voter registration deadline is still Oct. 11 and early voting will still start on Oct. 17, as planned. All 100 of the state’s county boards of elections are now open to the public, Bell said. 

Read More: Your Questions About Early Voting, Answered

Helene made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Sept. 26. While it was downgraded as it moved through the U.S., it ripped through the Southeast, causing devastation in western North Carolina. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s designated disaster area in North Carolina includes more than 20 counties in the western part of the state. About half of the roughly 227 people who died because of the storm were in North Carolina, according to The Associated Press. 

Roberts says the measures that the North Carolina State Board of Elections passed will help combat some of the challenges posed by the natural disaster. But he says that those changes still may not be enough, expressing concern that the barriers caused by Helene could reduce voter turnout in a state that has had some tight races in recent elections. A new poll released by High Point University on Thursday found that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump were tied, with both receiving 48% of the vote from likely North Carolina voters.

The storm may have destroyed some polling places, or the locations may be inaccessible because of damaged infrastructure. Other sites may not be available for voting anymore because they may need to be used for emergency response purposes. There were 40 early voting sites scheduled to be set up in the 13 counties that will be affected by the emergency measures approved by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, according to board spokesperson Patrick Gannon. But it’s not yet clear how many of those locations will still be available as voting sites, Bell said. Some citizens may have lost identification documents in the storm, which could add further difficulties to voting, and the state board of elections website has updated information about what to do in that case.

Even residents who planned on voting before Election Day may struggle to cast ballots. The storm disrupted the U.S. Postal Service’s operations in parts of North Carolina, which could prevent people from receiving their mail-in ballots, according to Roberts. And because many people—voters and poll workers alike—have been displaced by the storm, some may not prioritize participating in the election.

While depressed voter turnout could have a major effect on a presidential race that is essentially tied, the storm may also have made it more difficult to get polling data in the first place. The lack of electricity, cell service, and internet access in some regions could affect pollsters’ ability to get accurate data. Martin Kifer, director of High Point University’s Survey Research Center, says that pollsters will have to pay close attention to make sure that the data being collected is a representative sample.

At the press conference Monday, Bell urged people to turn to reliable sources for information as they figure out a voting plan for November. “I want to make sure that these people are safe from the storm,” she said, “and able to carry out their right to vote through this.”