McCormick Flips Pennsylvania Senate Seat—But Casey Refuses to Concede 

Republican Dave McCormick defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania’s pivotal Senate race, the Associated Press projected Thursday evening, delivering the GOP yet another win after it regained control of the Senate.

McCormick’s projected victory marks a pivotal moment for the Republican Party, solidifying their gains in what was one of the nation’s most expensive Senate races and giving them a significant foothold in Pennsylvania, a state that has long been a key battleground in national elections.

But with an estimated 91,000 votes still being counted, Casey’s campaign said it would not concede yet. McCormick was leading by about 31,000 votes, or half a percentage point, when the AP called the race, citing that “there were not enough [outstanding votes] in areas supporting Casey for him to make up the difference.” 

"As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots," Maddy McDaniel, a spokesperson for Casey’s campaign, said in a statement. "This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard."

The tight margin of McCormick's lead means that a recount could be triggered under Pennsylvania law if it remains within 0.5% once all ballots are tallied. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court recently ruled that mail ballots must be dated to be counted, making it a point of contention in the race.

McCormick’s projected win would give the Republican Party its 53rd seat in the Senate after winning back the majority. It would also mark a reversal of the GOP’s losses in the state in the 2022 midterms when Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz for the Senate seat. Sen. Fetterman, in a post on social media, echoed Casey’s call for patience while outstanding ballots are being counted. "We still have tens of thousands of votes to be counted across the Commonwealth," Fetterman said. "The AP shouldn’t make a call in this race until every Pennsylvanian has their vote counted."

For Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2007 and whose family has deep political roots in the state, the loss would mark a significant turning point. His father, the late Governor Robert P. Casey, served two terms, and Bob Casey has long been seen as a stalwart of the state’s Democratic establishment. However, with his popularity waning in key regions and the state’s political landscape shifting under the influence of national issues like inflation and the economy, this defeat would signal a tough reckoning for Pennsylvania’s Democratic establishment.

The race itself became one of the most expensive Senate contests in the country, with McCormick—a former hedge fund CEO—spending millions of his own wealth to fuel his campaign. He also attracted substantial financial backing from his connections in the business world, including donations from prominent figures in finance. His aggressive campaign, which emphasized dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s handling of issues like inflation and foreign policy, appeared to resonate with voters in the state, especially those frustrated with Casey’s close alignment with the President Joe Biden.