McCormick Flips Pennsylvania Senate Seat—but Casey Refuses to Concede 

Republican Dave McCormick declared victory over incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania’s pivotal Senate race after the Associated Press called the close election Thursday evening, delivering the GOP yet another win after it regained control of the Senate.

McCormick’s projected victory marks a pivotal moment for the Republican Party, solidifying their gains in what was one of the nation’s most expensive Senate races and giving them a significant foothold in Pennsylvania, a state that has long been a key battleground in national elections.

But with an estimated 91,000 votes still being counted, Casey’s campaign said it would not concede yet, arguing that the margin remains too narrow to declare a winner. “The number of provisional ballots expected from areas that favor Senator Casey, like Philadelphia and its suburbs, is further proof that this race is too close to be called,” Casey spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said in a statement Friday.

At the time the AP made its call, McCormick was ahead by roughly 31,000 votes, or half a percentage point. The AP said it decided to call the race because “there were not enough [outstanding votes] in areas supporting Casey for him to make up the difference.” 

The tight margin of McCormick's lead means that a recount could be triggered under Pennsylvania law if it remains within 0.5% once all ballots are tallied. Both campaigns are closely monitoring the remaining ballots, particularly in blue urban centers like Philadelphia, where a significant portion of the uncounted votes are concentrated.

McCormick’s campaign is prepared to take the fight to the Supreme Court, filing a series of legal challenges late Thursday night aimed at how election officials in Philadelphia handle those outstanding ballots. His campaign argued that up to 20,000 provisional ballots could potentially be invalidated if they were submitted improperly—without secrecy envelopes, missing signatures, or other irregularities.

McCormick’s team has also requested that ballots from voters who had previously requested mail-in ballots be segregated for further review, even though the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that voters who made mistakes on their mail-in ballots are allowed to cast provisional ballots instead. McCormick’s attorneys, however, argue that the court’s decision is ripe for appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, requesting the disputed ballots be set aside until further legal clarity is provided.

“As the McCormick campaign admitted in their own lawsuit this morning, the counting of these ballots could have an ‘impact on the outcome of the election,’” McDaniel said. “With more than 100,000 ballots still left to count, we will continue to make sure Pennsylvanians’ voices are heard.”

The unfolding legal battle over provisional ballots is only the latest twist in a race that has been one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate contests in the country. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, poured millions of his own wealth into his campaign and attracted significant backing from national Republican donors. His message, which focused on dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s handling of issues like inflation and foreign policy, appeared to resonate with voters in key swing regions of Pennsylvania.

McCormick’s projected win would give the Republican Party its 53rd seat in the Senate after winning back the majority. It would also mark a reversal of the GOP’s losses in the state in the 2022 midterms when Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz for the Senate seat. Sen. Fetterman, in a post on social media, echoed Casey’s call for patience while outstanding ballots are being counted. "We still have tens of thousands of votes to be counted across the Commonwealth," Fetterman said. "The AP shouldn’t make a call in this race until every Pennsylvanian has their vote counted."

For Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2007 and whose family has deep political roots in the state, the loss would mark a significant turning point. His father, the late Governor Robert P. Casey, served two terms, and Bob Casey has long been seen as a stalwart of the state’s Democratic establishment. However, with his popularity waning in key regions and the state’s political landscape shifting under the influence of national issues like inflation and the economy, this defeat would signal a tough reckoning for Pennsylvania’s Democratic establishment.