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# How Long Does It Take to Get COVID-19? Here's What a New Study Says

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<!-- video src="https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/TWdGwYtD.m3u8" -->
## Video: Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Apologizes In Front of COVID-19 Inquiry Panel

[Watch (HLS stream): Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Apologizes In Front of COVID-19 Inquiry Panel](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/TWdGwYtD.m3u8) (4:43)

![Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson Apologizes In Front of COVID-19 Inquiry Panel](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/TWdGwYtD/poster.jpg?width=720)

_Published 2023-12-06. The U.K’s COVID-19 Inquiry into the government’s response to the pandemic picked up again on Wednesday morning. The hearings for the initial stage of the investigation were heard in London in June. Today, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who served as the nation’s leader from 2019 to 2022, was sworn in to give evidence in front of the panel. Shortly into his opening statement, he said that he was sorry for the suffering experienced by COVID victims and their families._


![Jamie Ducharme](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltee90d03f171c21c6/698a0b45db2987baea2650e7/200115_Time_Headshots_Day451258.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1:1)

by 

[Jamie Ducharme](https://time.com/author/jamie-ducharme/)


![Jamie Ducharme](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltee90d03f171c21c6/698a0b45db2987baea2650e7/200115_Time_Headshots_Day451258.jpg?branch=production&width=96&quality=75&auto=webp)

## Jamie Ducharme


Ducharme is a contributor to TIME.

Jan 17, 2024 4:08 PM UTC

![Passengers Wearing Face Masks In Amsterdam Schiphol Airport](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc35758b2e8a82239/698a43f5457a5245c2d6853f/masking-in-airport.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=3:2)

Passengers wearing face masks inside Amsterdam Schiphol Airport on Apr. 27, 2022.

Passengers wearing face masks inside Amsterdam Schiphol Airport on Apr. 27, 2022. Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto—Getty Images

![Jamie Ducharme](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltee90d03f171c21c6/698a0b45db2987baea2650e7/200115_Time_Headshots_Day451258.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1:1)

by 

[Jamie Ducharme](https://time.com/author/jamie-ducharme/)


![Jamie Ducharme](https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltee90d03f171c21c6/698a0b45db2987baea2650e7/200115_Time_Headshots_Day451258.jpg?branch=production&width=96&quality=75&auto=webp)

## Jamie Ducharme


Ducharme is a contributor to TIME.

Jan 17, 2024 4:08 PM UTC

With [COVID-19 spreading as widely as it is right now](https://time.com/6554340/covid-19-surge-2024/), you run the risk of meeting an infected person every time you go into a public place. But every trip to the pharmacy or meal in a restaurant doesn’t lead to a case of COVID-19\. So what makes some exposures more harmful than others?

The length of time you spend around a person with COVID-19 seems to heavily influence your likelihood of getting sick, according to [a recent _Nature_ study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06952-2) that has been peer-reviewed but not fully edited. Most [exposures that result in transmission](https://time.com/6553232/covid-19-incubation-period-exposure-symptoms/) last at least an hour, if not much longer, the researchers say.

[Previous studies](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.664297/full) have shown that people who spend long bouts of time with someone who has COVID-19 are at increased risk of getting infected, particularly if the encounter happens in a small, enclosed space. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also warns that [longer COVID-19 exposures are riskier than shorter ones](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/risks-exposure.html)—but the agency has typically said 15 minutes of exposure is the threshold after which there’s a meaningful chance of getting sick. The new study, however, suggests it usually takes even longer for the virus to spread.

The researchers analyzed data from a COVID-19 tracking app that millions of people in England and Wales used to report positive test results and get notifications if they came into contact with someone who tested positive. The authors used data from 7 million of those notifications, which all happened from April 2021 to February 2022, to assess which exposures led to additional infections.


### More From TIME

There are some limitations to this approach. Data collection ended shortly after the peak of the first Omicron wave, so none of the [newer variants](https://time.com/6548748/jn1-covid-variant/), which have continued to evolve for increased contagiousness, are reflected. It’s also possible that some people who got infected after an exposure either did not get tested or did not report their test results in the app, and are therefore not included in the data.

It’s an imperfect measure. Nonetheless, users reported 240,000 positive test results following the 7 million exposure notifications. In around 80% of these cases, the person who tested positive had previously been around someone with COVID-19 for an hour or longer, says co-author Christophe Fraser, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Oxford’s Pandemic Sciences Institute (PSI). Transmission was particularly likely within households, where people tend to spend long stretches of time together. These encounters were responsible for 41% of recorded transmissions, according to the study.


“That doesn’t mean some people haven’t been infected during short exposures,” Fraser says, but these incidents were relatively rare in the study group.

Co-author Luca Ferretti, a fellow at PSI who researches the behavior of viruses, says the study suggests you have about a 2% chance of getting infected if you spend an hour with someone who has COVID-19, with the risk continuing to accumulate the longer you spend together.

That’s a much more optimistic conclusion than other scientists have reached. In [one modeling study](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2110117118#abstract) published in 2021, researchers calculated that, in a worst-case scenario, chances of infection could rise as high as 90% during just a few minutes of conversation with a sick, unmasked person. (If [either or both people wore a mask](https://time.com/6168672/how-wearing-mask-protects-you/), the researchers found, that number fell significantly.) [Another modeling study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47829-8), this one published in 2023, found that someone could inhale an infectious amount of virus after six to 37 minutes in a room with someone who has COVID-19.


What happens in the real world, however, is sometimes different from the theoretical conditions used in studies. The authors of the new _Nature_ study found that “fleeting” exposures of 30 minutes or less caused only 10% of documented illnesses in the study group.

Of course, even 10% of recorded transmission equals thousands of illnesses—so, clearly, people do get sick after even brief brushes with the virus. If you’re seated on the subway next to someone who is sick with COVID-19 and actively coughing, your proximity may be more important than the length of your trip. And having lots of short exposures in a row can amount to a significant risk. Data show, for example, that [bus drivers are at increased risk of COVID-19](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9484285/). They probably don’t spend a ton of time with any one passenger, Fraser says, “but if they’re meeting hundreds of passengers per day, it adds up.”

Still, Fraser says people tend to overestimate the “stranger danger” of getting COVID-19 from a random encounter, when in fact transmission often happens in places where they spend a lot of time, like their home or workplace.


Given the study’s findings, Ferretti recommends being extra careful if you know you’ll be spending a lot of time with someone who could be infected. If you’re staying overnight at a relative’s house, for example, you may both want to test beforehand.

And, he says, it’s better to take precautions late than never at all, since it can take a long time to get infected. Lots of people assume that if they’ve already been exposed to someone who has COVID-19, it’s too late to do anything. But the research suggests it could take hours or even days for someone to pass on the illness. So even if, say, you slept next to your spouse the night before they tested positive, it’s still worth masking or [isolating](https://time.com/6322665/covid-19-isolation-policy-2023/) moving forward.


## Transcript

I thought I understand the feelings of these victims and their families and I am deeply sorry for the pain of the loss and the suffering of those victims and their families and grateful. I am to the hundreds of thousands of healthcare workers and many other public servants. Mm. people who walks of life to protect our country drive to Draper pandemic. I do hope that this inquiry will help to get the answers to the very difficult questions that we can do next time. He's alright we are asking for the avoidance of doubt and make it happen. So you can I haven't removed any walks apps from my but I'll give you everything good.

I think you need we may have made mistakes. I think it. I didn't want to try to anticipate the discussion, which I'm sure we will get into about the timings of NPR's lockdowns. It inevitably we got something's wrong. I think we were doing our best to the other time when you give him the information how to find the whole time. I think we we did our level best. Well, that seems we should have done differently. Unquestionably but you know, I would I would struggle to to itemize to move before you not in in in in in in a hard Rocky take personal responsibility fee. Do you take responsibility for whatever my lady makes of the speed of the government's response in January February March of 2020 and the way in which the various moving parts of the government's the advisory committee is the Department's the agencies and so on responded.

Do you take responsibility for the lockdown decisions whichever way they went and the timeliness of them? The manner in which patients were discharged from hospital into the castle actor. the explosion of the virus within the Residential Care Center the general speed at which the restrictions were released. the attack to help Heights game and then lastly in 2020 the decision not to introduce the circuit breaker in September or October what to introduce a test System earlier when the prevalence of the virus was lower for good or ill yesterday the rate of excess deaths in this country as I say, I think this is the statistics battery and I think that the every country struggled with a new plan and I think the the UK from the evidence that I have seen was well done the European table in the oldest even further down the road table if I have to answer why I think we faced particular Penguins, I would say it was Irrespective of of government action are we have a Coke and a we are in Europe that they don't help.

You, see extremely well aware of the arguments that the long-term decisions and sells cheap Nativity in individually contributed to the number of excess. What do you say to that I say that I don't know but I'm aware of the documents made. What would I would say respectfully to people is that? they were very very difficult decisions and the issue of the timeliness of a blank times was clearly one that we considered. Very hard at the time.

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