--- title: Why Ukraine's Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year description: Ian Bremmer on why Ukraine's stalemate with Russia is unlikely to break in the next year. canonical: https://time.com/6335084/ukraine-stalemate-ian-bremmer-essay/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-11-16T11:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:45.125Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Why Ukraine's Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year og:description: Ian Bremmer on why Ukraine's stalemate with Russia is unlikely to break in the next year. og:url: https://time.com/6335084/ukraine-stalemate-ian-bremmer-essay/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb87dcc794564c62d/698a425a09208f817241aece/GettyImages-1782807416.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Military mobility of Ukrainian soldiers in the direction of Lugansk og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why Ukraine's Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year twitter:description: Ian Bremmer on why Ukraine's stalemate with Russia is unlikely to break in the next year. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb87dcc794564c62d/698a425a09208f817241aece/GettyImages-1782807416.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Ukraine's Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year > Sponsored content. 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Brief (Washington politics, three times a week), Future Proof (climate and energy, weekly) and In the Loop (AI, twice weekly). All are free at time.com/newsletters and together reach more than 1.1 million engaged readers. #### Which TIME newsletter should I subscribe to? It depends on what you follow. For a daily briefing, The Brief. For health, Health Matters. For Washington politics, D.C. Brief. For AI and technology, In the Loop. For climate and energy as a business story, Future Proof. For culture recommendations, Worth Your Time. For how TIME's journalism gets made, Inside TIME. Readers can select any combination at time.com/newsletters. #### Are TIME's newsletters free? Yes. All seven TIME newsletters are free to join at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and provides full access to TIME's journalism at time.com/subscribe-agent. #### Who writes TIME's newsletters? TIME journalists write them. Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ## Video: How War Has Changed Zelensky and Netanyahu [Watch (HLS stream): How War Has Changed Zelensky and Netanyahu](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/fIMiiB8k.m3u8) (4:40)  _Published 2023-11-13. TIME Senior correspondent and Ukraine expert, Simon Shuster, sits down with TIME Editor-at-Large and Israel expert, Karl Vick to discuss the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, and how they have influenced their respective leaders._  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 16, 2023 11:00 AM UTC  A Lugansk oblast poster with a Ukrainian flag on a road is seen in Lugansk Oblast, Ukraine on November 14, 2023. A Lugansk oblast poster with a Ukrainian flag on a road is seen in Lugansk Oblast, Ukraine on November 14, 2023. Diego Herrera Carcedo-Anadolu/ Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 16, 2023 11:00 AM UTC Things are looking up for Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive has made little progress on the ground, heightening fears in the West that U.S. and European taxpayers are bankrolling an increasingly costly stalemate. Russian counterattacks have accomplished little, but the ability of well-entrenched Russian forces to absorb Ukrainian blows without buckling leaves the Kremlin in control of about 18 percent of Ukraine’s land. Russia has expanded its missile strikes to the highest levels this year and boosted in domestic production of missiles and ammunition. Significant material support from [North Korea](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-delegation-led-by-natural-resources-minister-arrives-pyongyang-kcna-2023-11-14/) and more drones from Iran are helping. Putin can also celebrate the fallout from Israel’s war with Hamas. The U.S. and Europe are mightily distracted by the carnage in Gaza, which is roiling their domestic politics. Western aid that might have gone to Ukraine is now sharing focus with support for Israel and humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians trapped in harm’s way. Making matters worse, Washington and European governments don’t see eye to eye on this battle as they do on Ukraine, and divisions among Western governments are adding to the stress. The war in Gaza also helps Russia argue that America is run by neocolonialist hypocrites who make righteous speeches about human rights in Ukraine while green-lighting Israel’s assault on Palestinians who can’t flee as Ukrainians have. Quietly, Western leaders are warning [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky](https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/) that time is not on his country’s side. Despite the fights in Washington over [Ukraine funding](https://time.com/6319570/ukraine-u-s-aid-republicans/), more U.S. aid is probably coming. President Biden should still be able to secure a decent fraction of the $60 billion in military support he has requested from Congress. But uncertainty about the future of U.S. support is taking hold. **_Read More:_** [**_Zelensky's Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight_**](https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/) Yet, Western efforts to push Zelensky to begin bargaining with Putin will are going nowhere for now. Ukraine’s president is in no position to offer up captured Ukrainian land that tens of thousands of his soldiers died to defend. That’s especially true at a time when other voices are finding favor with the Ukrainian public—see recent [public comments](https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript?utm%5Fmedium=cpc.adword.pd&utm%5Fsource=google&ppccampaignID=17210591673&ppcadID=&utm%5Fcampaign=a.22brand%5Fpmax&utm%5Fcontent=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gad%5Fsource=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA9dGqBhAqEiwAmRpTC%5F2JfDRtVxUgK8veSAB-KQd4Cd22EEd5MIW3Yd3Ax-9VTpfDjJzLqRoCEEQQAvD%5FBwE&gclsrc=aw.ds) from Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander—and as he faces growing pressure to drop his objections to holding a wartime election in 2024\. ### More From TIME What could the West offer Zelensky in exchange for his willingness to begin haggling with Putin? On the economic side, the West could promise to finance full reconstruction of the country—including via the seizure of [Russia’s frozen assets](https://time.com/6317191/russia-frozen-assets-rebuild-ukraine/). The European Union could promise (eventual) membership. On the security side, NATO could offer full membership, with the protection guarantees that come with it. But members on both sides of the Atlantic will balk at moving large numbers of troops and weapons into Ukraine and at committing to war with Russia if missile strikes continue across the country. The U.S. can send Ukraine more advanced weapons systems in 2024, and NATO leaders can use the 75th anniversary summit next July to make some commitment on Ukraine’s future membership. But what happens if Donald Trump then wins the White House? What would that mean for NATO commitments—or for the future of NATO itself? No one can answer these questions with confidence. Knowing all this, Putin has no interest in offering any credible concession that Zelensky believes he could afford to accept. It’s too easy for Russia’s president to call up more recruits in numbers Ukraine can’t match, even if only to throw them on the fire. He can also wait and see what happens to Western support over the next year and what American voters decide next November. Aware of all this, Zelensky has no incentive to offer anything he knows Putin will only see as a sign of weakness. For all these reasons, the stalemate in Ukraine will likely extend for (at least) another year. ## Transcript Did Addison has he I mean? That part of his personality is is really I went they disappeared but become much less prominent over the course of the invasion. He's taken on the role of wartime leader. He's also tired. I think I see that his aides talk about that pretty openly they tell him boss. You got to get some rest you refuses. So he doesn't make a lot of time for four jokes and chit chat anymore. He did in the beginning in the beginning his administration that was a fun group of people to hang around. There's a lot of you know, kind of ironic jokes about the weird trappings of power that suddenly they they were surrounded by because they came from the world of comedy and entertainment into the presidential Palace very weird transition. It's nonstop. This guy just doesn't rest and you know, it has been You know definitely not the most important victim of this war. But but one of them his wife said when zelensky turned 45 years old, she said you don't smile as much anymore and she wished him for his birthday in a more reasons to smile so long when the answer to a question. But yeah, he's he's changed. He's changed a lot in their second answer with that with a question for you about BB prime minister Netanyahu. Absolutely dominant force in Israeli politics. Just observing it from from a distance what are attitudes toward him and how are the evolving? You know, what do people see him as as as as a strong enough leader to lead lead Israel through the next Crisis now, I think he's blamed for this security. He made Israelis feel safe. When used to use him Austin, you know, I'm the guy who will stand up to him. So I'll be tomorrow in earlier campaigns for a hard to come back from yeah, and he I think it's understood that Empower Tomas found it convenient to have a mouse in the Gaza Strip and rival party is secular party the thought the party running the Westbank so he can play and that party wanted was willing to negotiate cooperated with Israel and Security in exchange for negotiations toward the state of their own which Netanyahu never wanted to have or give until he said anybody who wants to know wants to stop a two-state solution should be helping us apart unless he did, you know of allowing her to send in billions of dollars of aid from which every purpose for military purposes of the governance in Gaza and meanwhile, It was someone's a party of one even though he headed to The Coop party because he was he's facing these corruption charges if he's literally on trial couldn't win a majority in the senate elections. They were having an in the way he the only way he got elected governing Coalition. This time was by bringing in these Fringe actors on far-right parties and politicians who have never been allowed in government and he gave them power and and they started this this effort to like the sidelines the Supreme Court and and bringing they call them reforms many people in Israel feared. We would perpetuate basic. We need to keep them in power forever and basically divided Israeli Society. So profoundly that there were protests weekly protests of them tens of thousands of people for months and and Israeli reservist military reservist. Who said we won't serve People have to know that we won't show up. This division was was considered one of the things that weekend Readiness and and be nice taking the the head for that bull show. 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