--- title: It's Time For Non-Trump Candidates to Find a New Playbook description: Most of the GOP field need to pick a strategy—focus on winning over Iowa conservatives or the nation—instead of trying to do both poorly. canonical: https://time.com/6305528/republican-presidential-candidates-iowa-donald-trump/ author: Philip Elliott article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-08-17T10:45:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:59.555Z article:section: Politics og:title: Non-Trump Candidates Need a New Playbook og:description: It's time for the GOP presidential candidates not named Trump need to pick a strategy—focus on winning over Iowa conservatives or the nation—instead of trying to do both poorly. og:url: https://time.com/6305528/republican-presidential-candidates-iowa-donald-trump/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0c65c18d4f9522fb/698a3f9916d88462b4c3c213/GettyImages-1601909743.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: 2024 Presidential Candidates Attend Iowa State Fair og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Non-Trump Candidates Need a New Playbook twitter:description: It's time for the GOP presidential candidates not named Trump need to pick a strategy—focus on winning over Iowa conservatives or the nation—instead of trying to do both poorly. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0c65c18d4f9522fb/698a3f9916d88462b4c3c213/GettyImages-1601909743.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # It’s Time For GOP 2024 Candidates Not Named Trump to Rethink What They're Doing > Sponsored content. 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Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. It reaches 85,000 subscribers with a 37.0% open rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: 2024 Presidential Candidates Campaign at the Iowa State Fair [Watch (HLS stream): 2024 Presidential Candidates Campaign at the Iowa State Fair](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/7DH5kdUH.m3u8) (3:16)  _Published 2023-08-14. A host of 2024 presidential candidates visited the Iowa State Fair to mingle with voters ahead of the state's first-in-the-nation nominating caucuses._  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Aug 17, 2023 10:45 AM UTC  Senator Tim Scott, a South Carolina Republican, tours the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 15, 2023. Senator Tim Scott, a South Carolina Republican, tours the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 15, 2023. Rachel Mummey—Bloomberg via Getty Images  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Aug 17, 2023 10:45 AM UTC _This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up_ [_here_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite) _to get stories like this sent to your inbox._ Every four years, ambitious consultants and hired guns sit down with aspiring presidents and sell them a lie. They deploy grandiose language and delusional sentiments like “Fundraising will be easy” and “No state is off the map” and “Heck, the race might actually be fun for the whole family.” It is, of course, hogwash. No political pro gets to Election Day credibly saying they ran the campaign they envisioned without adjustments. There is, quite simply, nothing that anyone can prepare candidates or their teams for the bananas nature of a national presidential campaign. Which is why most of the Republican presidential candidates are fast approaching a crossroads: Are they running to win Iowa or the nation? That may be an intentionally over-simplified choice and one that ignores the nuances of a race that has a quadruply [indicted](https://time.com/6304861/why-donald-trumps-indictment-georgia-carries-most-risk/) ex-President dominating the polling. But it cuts at the core decisions being batted around headquarters and conference calls. The candidates not named Trump basically can go all-in with early nominating states like Iowa—and, maybe, New Hampshire as a back-up plan—or make a play for a national audience in conservative media outlets. Both approaches have potential payouts. Most strategists see Iowa as the most vulnerable Trump stands to be. The thrice-married billionaire reality show isn’t a natural fit in the evangelical corners of the Iowa GOP that is still [chasing](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/14/politics/iowa-abortion-ban-reynolds-sign/index.html) a six-week ban on abortions. Trump’s porn-star [payouts](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trumps-alleged-hush-money-payments-path-criminal-charges-2023-04-04/) aren’t exactly a natural union for these voters. Plus, the last time Trump [faced](https://time.com/4201716/iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-ted-cruz/) a competitive caucus environment, he finished three points behind Ted Cruz. Any sign of vulnerability can open the flood gates. Perceived weakness after the New Hampshire primary in 1968 [ushered](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/mccarthy-nearly-upsets-lbj-in-new-hampshire-primary-march-12-1968-220521) Lyndon Johnson out of the race. History shows that the smart campaigns are always thinking about both the short term and the long term. The breakout darlings are seldom suited to take advantage of it. Mike Huckabee in 2008 won the Iowa caucuses, placed third in New Hampshire and in Michigan, and almost won South Carolina on a shoestring budget, but was so [broke](https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/us/politics/23huckabee.html) by the time he got to Florida three weeks later he had to ditch traveling reporters because their van was a luxury. Four years later, the GOP field turned into a rotating cast of nuisances for Mitt Romney: Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all had [moments](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican%5Fpresidential%5Fnomination-1452.html#polls) to polling ahead of him. Even the victors in that primary had headaches. John McCain was so [broke](https://www.seacoastonline.com/story/news/local/portsmouth-herald/2007/03/27/open-honest-vulnerable/52942883007/) in 2007 he had to [rely](https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/06/us/politics/06mccain.html) on the charity of his pals to ferry him around New Hampshire and used the cheapest veterans’ halls he could to beg for a second chance. Four years later, in the final weeks of 2012’s sequel, Romney [dispatched](https://www.cnbc.com/id/100052111) his running mate, Paul Ryan, to South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia to pick up checks as big as $25,000, instead of campaigning in swing states. And who can forget Jeb Bush’s [$130 million](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-campaign.html) nothingburger in 2016? There’s a reason the unofficial motto of many a campaign manager comes from _The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy_: “Don’t panic.” Most campaigns start with dreams of expansion but ultimately ambitions and optimism are never bigger than on the first day of a run. The most common shade thrown at a rival campaign is something along the lines of _the campaign will never have a better day than its launch._ Not even the most considered runs avoid getting sidetracked by external factors. Jim Comey’s October Surprise [rocked](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/comey-s-october-surprise-shook-america-four-years-ago-today-ncna1245018) Hillary Clinton’s headquarters. (Of course, Trump’s own _Access Hollywood_ bombshell weeks earlier [prompted](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/7/13868966/trump-time-person-of-the-year) TIME to melt Trump’s image for a second time on a 2016 cover.) The polling around the current GOP field suggests most of the candidates need to pick a strategy—Iowa or the nation—instead of trying to do both poorly. Iowa remains a relatively cheap playground to run for the White House. Spending big there does not guarantee success. Tim Pawlenty in 2012 [dumped](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/pawlenty-all-in-to-win-ames/2011/03/29/gIQA5wTafI%5Fblog.html) hundreds of thousands of dollars for an early and symbolic test vote only to drop out of the race the next day. (It turns out, his Dairy Queen blizzards couldn’t [compete](https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2011/08/the-great-ames-boondoggle-038112?showall) with Michele Bachmann’s petting zoo. Yes, this is how we pick Presidents.) Santorum and Pete Buttigieg alike carried the state on pure elbow grease. Denting Trump could prove an efficient dollar-for-dollar way to prove potential, if not for 2024 then in 2028\. That, however, is a long game. And, at least in the era of Trump, that approach isn’t all that popular. The incentives are all wrong for such a strategic investment. With Trump [hinting](https://apnews.com/article/debate-republican-president-trump-pence-haley-desantis-d3192137ee265d8455ff8af64a5f88ef) he will skip next week’s first debate, there are rapidly shrinking opportunities for his rivals to dethone—if not derail—him. But the folks in rival HQs need to understand that what plays well in New York doesn’t always play nicely in Newton, Iowa. And, unlike the rebroadcast markets of _The Apprentice_, there is no afterlife of syndication for Trump’s impersonators. All of which explains why it may be time for Trump’s rivals to rethink their footing. Trump has enjoyed double-digit polling [leads](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024%5Frepublican%5Fpresidential%5Fnomination-7548.html#polls) since March, and his support has only hardened since. Whatever his rivals have been trying? It isn’t working. _Make sense of what matters in Washington._ [_Sign up for the D.C. 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