--- title: El Nino May Make Coffee and Chocolate More Expensive description: The return of El Niño and prospects of hotter, drier weather in producing countries is now threatening to exacerbate tight supply. canonical: https://time.com/6286286/el-nino-coffee-high-prices/ copyright: © 2026 TIME USA, LLC. All Rights Reserved. terms: https://legal.time.com/terms-of-service/ license_contact: syndication@time.com author: TIME article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-06-10T13:35:51.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:24:23.234Z article:section: Climate og:title: El Nino Could Make Coffee, Cookies, and Chocolate More Expensive og:description: The return of El Niño and prospects of hotter, drier weather in producing countries is now threatening to exacerbate tight supply. og:url: https://time.com/6286286/el-nino-coffee-high-prices/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcb8d0d9a66230fbc/698a3dae457a5269f8d67ac9/coffee-chocolate-sugar-snacks-high-prices-el-nino-weather-impact.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Coffee beans on plantation, Bali island, Munduk, Indonesia og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: El Nino Could Make Coffee, Cookies, and Chocolate More Expensive twitter:description: The return of El Niño and prospects of hotter, drier weather in producing countries is now threatening to exacerbate tight supply. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcb8d0d9a66230fbc/698a3dae457a5269f8d67ac9/coffee-chocolate-sugar-snacks-high-prices-el-nino-weather-impact.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # El Niño Could Make Coffee, Cookies, and Chocolate More Expensive > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-futureproof-2026q3/newsletters?i=319fb095-874f-43e8-81b0-a427f11865bb&cr=time-nl-futureproof-2026q3-v1) ## Video: El Niño Explained [Watch (HLS stream): El Niño Explained](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/N1L60EZD.m3u8) (4:38)  _Published 2023-06-05. Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report recent ocean temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at just 0.1 degrees Celsius below the threshold needed to declare an El Niño. This on top of already rising average global temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to more intense rain and storms, and even hotter heat waves._ by [Mumbi Gitau and Dayanne Sousa / Bloomberg](https://time.com/author/bloomberg/) ## Mumbi Gitau and Dayanne Sousa / Bloomberg Contributor Jun 10, 2023 1:35 PM UTC Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report recent ocean temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at just 0.1 degrees Celsius below the threshold needed to declare an El Niño. This on top of already rising average global temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to more intense rain and storms, and even hotter heat waves. by [Mumbi Gitau and Dayanne Sousa / Bloomberg](https://time.com/author/bloomberg/) ## Mumbi Gitau and Dayanne Sousa / Bloomberg Contributor Jun 10, 2023 1:35 PM UTC There’s an aisle of the grocery store where inflation is looking exceptionally sticky: indulgent treats. Think coffee, chocolates and your favorite snacks. Prices of soft commodities have soared this year because of supply constraints. The return of El Niño and prospects of [hotter, drier weather](https://time.com/section/climate/) in producing countries is now threatening to exacerbate tight supply. In the UK, retailers are locking instant coffee jars in security cases to prevent theft. In Japan, one beverage giant suspended the sale of Tropicana orange juice because of a shortage. And in Germany, chocolate and biscuit makers complain of soaring sugar and cocoa costs. It’s one corner of the commodities market, along with gold, bucking the deflationary trend even as the cost of [food staples](https://time.com/6283762/climate-change-tomatoes-ketchup-ai/) like bread and pasta eases. This week, robusta prices surged to the highest level since at least 2008, making it more expensive for buyers around the world to get a cheap brew. **Read more:** [_El Niño Has Begun. What to Know About the Weather Phenomenon_](https://time.com/6286249/what-is-el-nino/) Prices of soft commodities have been outperformers this year, surging about 24% while the broader agriculture index eased 3% weighed by falling wheat and corn prices. “Consumers will start to see the cost of bread and pasta falling as the prices of grains have come down, but the last thing to fall will be your sugar and coffee and sweets,” said Kona Haque, head of research at ED&F Man. Robusta bean production is expected to fall by 5% in Brazil, while in Indonesia, the world’s second-biggest robusta exporter, output is projected to drop by 20%. That combined with shrinking stockpiles in Vietnam, the largest-robusta producer, is likely to keep prices elevated. For already-suffering chocolate makers, the pain brought by an El Niño could also get worse. Production of cocoa beans in West Africa — the largest growing region — may fall in the next season by as much as 8% on adverse weather, according to Fuad Mohammed Abubakar, head of Ghana Cocoa Marketing Company. Cocoa prices already surged to the highest in seven years this season following a disappointing harvest in top exporter Ivory Coast that worsened the global deficit. But among breakfast items, orange juice has probably seen the highest price increase following a staggering supply shortage caused by disease and hurricane damage in US top producing state Florida. That led futures to rally to a 56-year record, with little relief in sight. “We don’t expect major supply increases, while demand could slowdown especially in lower-income segments of the population that cannot afford such high prices,” said Marcos Fava Neves, a researcher at University of Sao Paulo. **Read more:** [_How El Niño May Test the Limits of Our Climate Knowledge_](https://time.com/6263513/el-nino-may-test-understanding-climate-change/) There are already signs the beverage industry is moving away from orange juice, with bottlers shifting to different fruits or blends. In Japan, it was Kirin Beverage Company Ltd, for example, that recently said it is temporarily suspending the sale of Tropicana orange juice, blaming the tight global supply. While supermarket prices may not fall much soon, sales of sweet treats are expected to remain resilient as they are considered small luxuries people are unwilling to give up compared to big ticket purchases like a holiday or a new car, according to ED&F Man’s Haque. “There is also the whole science about coffee, sugar and cocoa being fairly addictive,” she said, “based on that alone it means consumption will hold up well.” —With assistance from Shoko Oda. ## Transcript As experts, warn the world could face record high temperatures in 2023, you would like to hear a lot about a weather phenomenon, call the chances of an El Nino or looking more likely. Now within the next six months, the other concerned that we have with El Nino is El Nino, create a hotter or writ large all the tools that we use for prediction of all pointing to a fairly rapid transition to El Nino conditions were looking at 80% probability, of least a moderate El Nino, there is a probability of about forty to fifty percent. That it could be stronger than that, the marketing of forecast. But I would be surprised if we were not in El Nino, conditions declared El Nino conditions very soon. Current issue. 37 years El nino-southern, oscillation is a natural climate patterns that occurs when surface waters in the Eastern Pacific. Ocean become a happen or where you want your normal weather conditions, Trade, Winds along, the Equator warm water from South America to Asia and cold water rises from the bottom of the ocean. Take place during El Nino. Trade, winds are weak cause an abnormal. The ocean heat evaporate into the atmosphere. Free weather and warmer are the transfer. Also causes the jet stream over the Eastern Pacific, to dip, which can affect weather pattern. So I'll go and we do have it in one. Geographic region effects are often felt all over the world. It starts in the Pacific Ocean is nobody concentrated in the Western Pacific Coast of Australia. In an El Nino, it moves East would bring you with it. Shoot amounts of heat energy that slam into the coast of Peru and Ecuador At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for recent, ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. I just 0.1 degrees Celsius below the threshold needed to be said that car predictions indicate. A range of possibilities at the end of the year. The stronger, the El Nino. The more likely it is that we will experience record surface temperatures this on top of already rise in average global temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate the impact of climate change, leaning toward intense, rain and storms and even hotter heat waves devel. Mineral is basically zero song from the great state of New Jersey and the impact of El Nino and La. Nina New Jersey is basically nothing. Now if you live in the Gulf Coast of Florida and you're looking at winter precipitation, then you're going to have an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in winter in those regions. So above-normal precipitation Southern third below, normal precipitation, Northern third, Main impacts for the US coming up in the short-term, right? For the summer is on the hurricane C. Enhance windshear associate with El, Nino leads to fewer hurricane. That's the bottom line in the Atlantic. Now in the Eastern Pacific, the opposite is true ride. You get decrease windshear and therefore you tend to have more hurricanes although in that part of the world are called tropical Cyclones, right? So opposite in fact, between Eastern Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic, typically a powerful Ally new event, in recorded history, California, so record. Rainfall, Indonesia experienced, one of the worst drafts on record in 60% of the world. Coral reef systems got the 2015 2016. El Nino was a symbol of strength and Trigger disease, outbreaks all over the world, in Southeast. Asia, less than average rainfall caused mosquitoes to be driven into populated areas containing Open Water. This led to apteka Dengue Fever, a viral infection that spreads for mosquitoes to people. If you look at the events, they are different and in some cases, substantially different. So one thing, I think it's very important to recognize is that just because it an El Nino, is declared, doesn't mean you should expect X is going to happen, it's going to be a shift in probabilities and depending on where you are. May not be a big shift. You really need to monitor the actual prediction and the closer and time that you get to when the forecast is valid, that would be the most accurate forecasts of people ask me. What's the forecast going to be like in the winter? I can say look this is what the model say now, but I would Place most space on the forecast. 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