--- title: What Is El Niño and How It Affects Weather description: Extended warmth in the Pacific Ocean leads to higher global temperatures, and can impact weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. canonical: https://time.com/6286249/what-is-el-nino/ author: Anisha Kohli article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-06-09T21:28:51.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-19T07:24:22.804Z article:section: Science og:title: El Niño Has Begun. What to Know About the Weather Phenomenon og:description: Extended warmth in the Pacific Ocean leads to higher global temperatures, and can impact weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. og:url: https://time.com/6286249/what-is-el-nino/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac29d94d647aced0/698a3db9b21a9c75ec507524/el-nino-weather-climate-what-to-know.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: COSTA RICA-DROUGHT-LA SABANA-LAKE og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: El Niño Has Begun. What to Know About the Weather Phenomenon twitter:description: Extended warmth in the Pacific Ocean leads to higher global temperatures, and can impact weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac29d94d647aced0/698a3db9b21a9c75ec507524/el-nino-weather-climate-what-to-know.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # El Niño Has Begun. What to Know About the Weather Phenomenon > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. 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This on top of already rising average global temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to more intense rain and storms, and even hotter heat waves._  by [Anisha Kohli](https://time.com/author/anisha-kohli/)  ## Anisha Kohli Jun 9, 2023 9:28 PM UTC Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report recent ocean temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at just 0.1 degrees Celsius below the threshold needed to declare an El Niño. This on top of already rising average global temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to more intense rain and storms, and even hotter heat waves.  by [Anisha Kohli](https://time.com/author/anisha-kohli/)  ## Anisha Kohli Jun 9, 2023 9:28 PM UTC El Niño—the natural climate phenomenon of warm temperature in the Pacific Ocean—has officially begun, and it’s sure to affect weather patterns globally in conjunction with climate change. On Thursday morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) [announced](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis%5Fmonitoring/enso%5Fadvisory/ensodisc.shtml) that El Niño conditions were present and that its strength is expected to gradually increase throughout the year, into 2024\. Climate analysts track the Pacific Ocean’s temperatures meticulously and declare a period of El Niño once temperatures near the equator are at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit above historical averages for three consecutive months. Scientists have been anticipating El Niño for months, while also expressing [concern](https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181086972/el-nino-has-officially-begun-heres-what-that-means-for-the-u-s) over how it may exacerbate the effects of climate change. The extended period of warmth in the Pacific Ocean leads to higher global temperatures, and can [impact](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html) weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. “The ocean does a very good job of holding heat,” Alex DaFilva, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, says. “It can release some of that heat and cause global temperatures to be a little bit warmer. This year is probably going to be in the top five years for global temperatures, I think.”  Lon Tweeten for TIME; Getty Images ## **Why does El** **Niño** **occur?** In the Pacific Ocean under standard conditions, trade winds—wind patterns that blow horizontally along the equator—travel east to west bringing warm water from South America towards Asia. At regular speed, the trade winds cause ample wave movement, allowing the warm surface water and the deeper cold water to mix in the ocean. But when the trade winds slow down, wave movement drops and the stillness halts water from mixing as much. “It doesn’t take much as soon as those winds weaken,” DaFilva says. The ocean’s temperature quickly warms up, leading to an episode of El Niño. **Read more:** [_How El Niño May Test the Limits of Our Climate Knowledge_](https://time.com/6263513/el-nino-may-test-understanding-climate-change/) ## **How long is it expected to last?** El Niño usually occurs every two to seven years, more frequently than its opposing climate phenomenon, La Niña, but neither follows a schedule. El Niño typically lasts nine to 12 months, but can sometimes carry on for years. Experts predict that this year, El Niño is likely to continue through the summer, fall, and winter. “There are some computer models that are indicating that it might even go into later next year,” DaFilva says. The last period of El Niño spanned several months from late 2018 to mid-2019. ## **What El** **Niño** **means for extreme weather** For Canada and the northern U.S., El Niño usually brings warm, dry weather—a worry for Canada’s already abnormally hot spell this year and the ravaging [wildfire crisis](https://time.com/6285707/how-wildfire-smoke-travels/). The southern U.S. is prone to more storms during El Niño, posing a threat to exacerbate the [heavy rain](https://time.com/6272147/fort-lauderdale-flooding-florida-rain/) the region has been experiencing. Flash floods and overloaded infrastructure issues have plagued some southern states in recent months. One perk may be that during times of El Niño, the Atlantic coast tends to grapple with fewer hurricanes. However, with climate disruption causing warmer oceans overall, some scientists encourage preparation for a [potentially strong](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook#:~:text=NOAA's%20outlook%20for%20the%202023,of%2039%20mph%20or%20higher%29.) hurricane season this summer anyways. The rise in severe weather events has been [linked](https://time.com/6225682/how-climate-change-impacts-weather-global-map/) to human activity disrupting the Earth’s climate and increasing the global temperature. The three hottest years on record so far have been 2016, 2019, and 2020, two of which saw periods of El Niño. “\[This\] could be the warmest year on record,” DaFilva says. “I’m not sure, it’s just gonna depend on how strong El Niño gets.” ## Transcript [00:00] As experts, warn the world could face record high temperatures [00:02] in 2023, you would like to hear a lot about a weather phenomenon, [00:06] call the chances of an El Nino or looking more likely. [00:11] Now within the next six months, the other concerned that we have [00:14] with El Nino is El Nino, create a hotter or writ large all the [00:20] tools that we use for prediction of all pointing to a fairly [00:23] rapid transition to El Nino conditions were looking at 80% probability, [00:28] of least a moderate El Nino, there is a probability of about [00:32] forty to fifty percent. [00:33] That it could be stronger than that, [00:35] the marketing of forecast. [00:36] But I would be surprised if we were not in El Nino, [00:39] conditions declared El Nino conditions very soon. [00:43] Current issue. 37 years El nino-southern, oscillation [00:47] is a natural climate patterns that occurs when surface waters [00:50] in the Eastern Pacific. [00:51] Ocean become a happen or where you want your normal weather [00:54] conditions, Trade, Winds along, the Equator warm water from [00:58] South America to Asia and cold water rises from the bottom [01:01] of the ocean. [01:02] Take place during El Nino. [01:04] Trade, winds are weak cause an abnormal. [01:07] The ocean heat evaporate into the atmosphere. [01:11] Free weather and warmer are the transfer. [01:14] Also causes the jet stream over the Eastern Pacific, [01:16] to dip, which can affect weather pattern. [01:18] So I'll go and we do have it in one. [01:21] Geographic region effects are often felt all over the world. [01:24] It starts in the Pacific Ocean is nobody concentrated [01:30] in the Western Pacific Coast of Australia. [01:32] In an El Nino, it moves East would bring you with it. [01:37] Shoot amounts of heat energy that slam into the coast of Peru [01:41] and Ecuador [01:43] At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [01:46] for recent, ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern [01:49] tropical Pacific Ocean. [01:51] I just 0.1 degrees Celsius below the threshold needed to be said that [01:57] car predictions indicate. [01:58] A range of possibilities at the end of the year. [02:00] The stronger, the El Nino. [02:02] The more likely it is that we will experience record surface [02:05] temperatures this on top of already rise in average global [02:08] temperatures due to global warming which could exacerbate [02:11] the impact of climate change, leaning toward intense, [02:14] rain and storms and even hotter heat waves devel. [02:19] Mineral is basically zero song from the great state of New Jersey [02:22] and the impact of El Nino and La. [02:25] Nina New Jersey is basically nothing. [02:27] Now if you live in the Gulf Coast of Florida and you're looking [02:29] at winter precipitation, then you're going to have an enhanced [02:32] probability of above-normal precipitation in winter in those [02:36] regions. So above-normal precipitation Southern third below, [02:41] normal precipitation, Northern third, Main impacts for the US [02:45] coming up in the short-term, right? [02:47] For the summer is on the hurricane C. [02:49] Enhance windshear associate with El, Nino leads to fewer hurricane. [02:53] That's the bottom line in the Atlantic. [02:55] Now in the Eastern Pacific, the opposite is true ride. [02:58] You get decrease windshear and therefore you tend to have more [03:02] hurricanes although in that part of the world are called tropical [03:05] Cyclones, right? So opposite in fact, between Eastern Pacific [03:08] and the Tropical Atlantic, typically a powerful Ally new event, [03:20] in recorded history, California, so record. [03:23] Rainfall, Indonesia experienced, one of the worst drafts on record [03:26] in 60% of the world. [03:28] Coral reef systems got the 2015 2016. [03:31] El Nino was a symbol of strength and Trigger disease, [03:35] outbreaks all over the world, in Southeast. [03:37] Asia, less than average rainfall caused mosquitoes to be driven [03:40] into populated areas containing Open Water. [03:43] This led to apteka Dengue Fever, a viral infection that spreads [03:47] for mosquitoes to people. [03:48] If you look at the events, they are different and in some cases, [03:54] substantially different. So one thing, I think it's very important [03:58] to recognize is that just because it an El Nino, [04:01] is declared, doesn't mean you should expect X is going to happen, [04:04] it's going to be a shift in probabilities and depending on [04:08] where you are. [04:08] May not be a big shift. [04:09] You really need to monitor the actual prediction and the closer [04:14] and time that you get to when the forecast is valid, [04:18] that would be the most accurate forecasts of people ask me. [04:21] What's the forecast going to be like in the winter? [04:23] I can say look this is what the model say now, [04:25] but I would Place most space on the forecast. 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