--- description: The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported Tuesday that China's population declined for the first time in decades. title: India Might Now Be the World's Most Populous Country image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt196a427dac83e2ad/698a397f86f68e100b6f2116/GettyImages-1242812182.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [World](/section/world/) ## World Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Asia](/tag/asia/) ## Asia Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # China’s Population Has Shrunk. India Might Now Be the World’s Most Populous Country ## Video: At Least 69 Killed in Plane Crash in Nepal. Here’s What We Know So Far [Watch (HLS stream): At Least 69 Killed in Plane Crash in Nepal. Here’s What We Know So Far](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/BU2u9mZa.m3u8) (1:22)  _Published 2023-01-17. A domestic flight traveling from the capital of Nepal, Kathmandu, crashed near Pokhara International Airport on Sunday morning, killing at least 68 people, according to officials._  by [Armani Syed](/author/armani-syed/)  ## Armani Syed Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Syed was a reporter for TIME, based in the London bureau. Jan 17, 2023 5:57 PM CUT  Crowd of people throng Dadar market to shop ahead of Ganapati festival in Mumbai on Aug. 28, 2022. Crowd of people throng Dadar market to shop ahead of Ganapati festival in Mumbai on Aug. 28, 2022.Ashish Vaishnav—SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images  by [Armani Syed](/author/armani-syed/)  ## Armani Syed Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Syed was a reporter for TIME, based in the London bureau. Jan 17, 2023 5:57 PM CUT For the first time in over six decades, China reported a population decline. The news has raised the possibility that India, which was [expected to surpass China](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62126413 "undefined") as the world’s most populous country later this year, has already done so. The National Bureau of Statistics of China [announced Tuesday](http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202301/t20230117%5F1892094.html "undefined") that the number of recorded deaths, 10.41 million, outweighed the number of births, 9.56 million, resulting in the population declining in 2022 by 850,000 to reach 1.41175 billion. The last time China reported a decline was when the Great Leap Forward—a failed economic plan led by [Mao Zedong’s](https://time.com/6222018/xi-jinping-maos-legacy-china/ "undefined") Chinese Communist Party—brought about famine that led to millions of deaths. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-since-1961-2023-01-17/ "undefined"), U.N. experts had predicted last year that India’s population would reach 1.412 billion. But there is uncertainty around how India carries out population data collection methods, which take place every decade, and the 2021 census was delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and prominent [critic of China’s birth policy](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/24/world/asia/china-yi-fuxian-boao-family-planning.html "undefined"), describes China’s population decline as “much bleaker than expected.” --- ### More from TIME --- “China’s population began to decline 9-10 years earlier than Chinese officials and U.N. projections, meaning that China’s real demographic crisis is beyond imagination and that all of China’s past economic, social, defense, and foreign policies were based on faulty demographic data,” he writes in a statement to TIME. Fuxian says that China’s declining population has been brought about by surging living costs that discourages further population growth, as well as the “later, longer, fewer” campaign and a decades-long [one-child policy](https://time.com/4092453/china-one-child-rule/#:~:text=It%20was%20the%20world's,the%20official%20Xinhua%20News%20Agency. "undefined"). **Read More:** [_Here’s How China’s One-Child Policy Started in the First Place_](https://time.com/4092689/china-one-child-policy-history/ "undefined") China ended its one-child policy in 2016 and removed all restrictions on family size in 2021 in a bid to promote population growth. The government has also rolled out incentives to encourage reproduction, such as tax deductions, longer maternity leave entitlement, and housing aid, with President Xi Jinping suggesting in October that further [beneficial policies](https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1011422/chinese-president-promises-new-policies-to-boost-birth-rate "undefined") would soon follow**.** But these measures have so far been unsuccessful. China’s birth rate fell from 7.52 births per 1,000 people in 2021 to 6.77 births, with China having [among the lowest birth rates in the world](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-discourage-abortions-boost-low-birth-rate-2022-08-16/#:~:text=China%27s%20fertility%20rate%20of%201.16,the%20lowest%20in%20the%20world. "undefined"). Professor Steve Tsang, Director of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies’ (SOAS) China Institute tells TIME, “the few incentives the Chinese state puts in place are unlikely to be sufficient to change the attitude of people. The demographic shift in China looks structural and it will take a lot more than some government incentives to reverse.” Like China, India also previously explored unsuccessful attempts to curb its population growth. But unlike China, India’s population is only expected to grow further, reaching 1.52 billion by 2036, according to a [July 2020 projection](https://thewire.in/government/india-population-growth-government-report-2036-projections-urban-migration "undefined") by the country’s National Commission on Population. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6247720/india-most-populous-country-china/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6247720/india-most-populous-country-china/"},"headline":"China’s Population Has Shrunk. 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