--- title: Global Warming Goals Are Slipping Out of Reach: UN Report description: A United Nations report shows our slim chances of preventing catastrophic global warming. canonical: https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/ author: Emily Barone article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-10-27T15:11:15.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-24T14:57:04.125Z article:section: Climate og:title: Global Warming Goals Are Slipping Out of Reach og:description: A UN report shows our slim chances of preventing catastrophic global warming. og:url: https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac1789b6a0092463/698a36c8096a94d97d6ad178/fossil_fuels_burn.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2121 og:image:height: 1193 og:image:alt: Plumes of smoke rise from chimneys at an industrial area in Greece. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Global Warming Goals Are Slipping Out of Reach twitter:description: A UN report shows our slim chances of preventing catastrophic global warming. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac1789b6a0092463/698a36c8096a94d97d6ad178/fossil_fuels_burn.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How Far Our Climate Goals Have Slipped Out of Reach, In a Single Chart > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Future Proof: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Future Proof is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Making sense of the climate and energy economy. Future Proof examines the forces transforming energy and climate, and what those changes mean for business, technology, policy and the global economy. Senior correspondent Justin Worland goes beyond traditional climate coverage to connect the energy transition to the bigger decisions reshaping companies, markets and society. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. by [Emily Barone](https://time.com/author/emily-barone/) ## Emily Barone Oct 27, 2022 3:11 PM UTC  Plumes of smoke rise from chimneys at an industrial area in Greece. Plumes of smoke rise from chimneys at an industrial area in Greece. Getty Images—Alexandros Maragos by [Emily Barone](https://time.com/author/emily-barone/) ## Emily Barone Oct 27, 2022 3:11 PM UTC The United Nations is sounding the alarm about the world’s inadequate effort to slow climate change. In a series of reports released this week, the international organization makes clear that emissions are not falling fast enough to stop global temperatures from rising 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. One of the [reports](https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now) released on Wednesday, which analyzes the most recent mitigation plans (called Nationally Determined Contributions, or “NDCs”) issued by the 193 countries under the Paris Climate Agreement, finds that we’re on track to increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels—a trajectory that would bump temperatures 2.5°C by 2100. Another [report](https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022) released on Thursday, which dives deeper into the gap between our emissions plans and our climate goals, illustrates our poor chances of getting the job done. If countries continue with their current policies, there’s a 20% chance of global warming exceeding 3°C. If they follow the climate action promises outlined in their NDCs, those odds drop to about 13%. To avoid tipping past the 1.5°C threshold, global emissions need to be cut by about half in the next eight years. The only scenario where there’s a chance of that happening, as the below chart shows, is if G20 and other high-emitting countries go beyond their NDCs and achieve net-zero targets, too. The UN notes, however, that this scenario is optimistic. While all parties to the Paris Agreement are obligated to have an NDC and to pursue the measures within it, each country decides for itself what its climate mitigation goals should look like—and those goals aren’t legally binding. Net-zero emissions targets are often even more toothless because only a handful of countries [have a meaningful road map](https://time.com/6113845/net-zero-climate-pledge-impact/) to achieve them. The lack of substantive action year after year means that the odds of being in the 1.5°C to 2°C range are shrinking as the odds of falling in the 2.5°C to 3°C range are growing. That kind of temperature difference may seem like a marginal shift on paper, but it’s a dramatic shift in reality. According to [Carbon Brief](https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/), which outlines how life would transform in different warming scenarios, average drought length stretches from two months at 1.5°C to four months at 2°C. The share of plants that would no longer have a suitable climate to grow doubles from 8% to 16%. And, by the end of the century, the number of people in coastal areas who are flooded jumps from 60 million people per year to 72 million per year. The sobering UN reports come one month before the parties meet in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to further climate talks. At last year’s conference in Glasgow, Scotland, attendees were blunt [about the slim chances](https://time.com/6117499/cop26-final-agreement/) of meeting the 1.5°C goal, which was originally set in 2015\. Now, the reality is even clearer—and the stakes are even higher to meaningfully address impending catastrophe. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/"},"headline":"How Far Our Climate Goals Have Slipped Out of Reach, In a Single Chart","datePublished":"2022-10-27T15:11:15.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-24T14:57:04.125Z","description":"A UN report shows our slim chances of preventing catastrophic global warming.","url":"https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/","keywords":["climate","climate change"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac1789b6a0092463/698a36c8096a94d97d6ad178/fossil_fuels_burn.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Emily Barone","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/emily-barone/"}],"articleSection":"Climate","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltac1789b6a0092463/698a36c8096a94d97d6ad178/fossil_fuels_burn.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Plumes of smoke rise from chimneys at an industrial area in Greece.","caption":"Smoke emerging from chimneys","creditText":"Getty Images—Alexandros Maragos","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/climate/","name":"Climate"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate/","name":"climate"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6225631/climate-goals-un-report-global-warming/","name":"How Far Our Climate Goals Have Slipped Out of Reach, In a Single Chart"}}]}] ```