--- title: What It Will Take For Ukraine To Win the War description: It's still possible for Ukraine to win the war against Russia but it needs more and better military supplies from NATO and the U.S. to do so canonical: https://time.com/6162797/ukraine-win-war-against-russia/ author: TIME article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-03-30T15:40:06.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:34:15.575Z article:section: Ideas og:title: What It Will Take For Ukraine To Win the War og:description: It's still possible for Ukraine to win the war against Russia but it needs more and better military supplies from NATO and the U.S. to do so og:url: https://time.com/6162797/ukraine-win-war-against-russia/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd455fa1f2d13cce0/698a3079d075332e7ce6cb08/GettyImages-1239601967.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What It Will Take For Ukraine To Win the War twitter:description: It's still possible for Ukraine to win the war against Russia but it needs more and better military supplies from NATO and the U.S. to do so twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd455fa1f2d13cce0/698a3079d075332e7ce6cb08/GettyImages-1239601967.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # What It Will Take for Ukraine to Win the War > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=32967a44-6b13-4dc4-8584-1f281a71e09b&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Ukraine: A Glossary of Terms [Watch (HLS stream): Ukraine: A Glossary of Terms](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/OM8MLV7Y.m3u8) (5:41)  _Published 2022-03-15. When it comes to learning about the conflict in Ukraine, there are a lot of terms that get thrown around. Here are a few you should know._ by [Seth G. Jones](https://time.com/author/seth-g-jones/) ## Seth G. Jones Mar 30, 2022 3:40 PM UTC When it comes to learning about the conflict in Ukraine, there are a lot of terms that get thrown around. Here are a few you should know. by [Seth G. Jones](https://time.com/author/seth-g-jones/) ## Seth G. Jones Mar 30, 2022 3:40 PM UTC While Russian forces have faced stiff resistance in Ukraine, President [Vladimir Putin](https://time.com/6151377/putin-ukraine-attack-dictator/) is attempting to turn the tide of the war through a long and brutal military campaign. But if the United States and its Western partners can ramp up—and sustain—military assistance to Ukraine for the long term, Moscow may eventually lose the war—a virtually unthinkable outcome several weeks ago. Economic and diplomatic steps are important, but military aid is the linchpin. The Russian military is facing what Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong called a “people’s war.” As Mao wrote in his book _On Protracted War_, “the richest source of power to wage war lies in the masses of the people.” Mao argued that in a well-organized resistance effort, the invading force “will be surrounded by hundreds of millions of our people standing upright … and he will be burned to death.” While Mao was referring to China’s war against invading Japanese forces in the 1930s, he could easily have been describing Ukraine. Russian forces have faced stiff resistance from conventional Ukrainian forces and a population that has mobilized against an occupying army. According to U.S. and [NATO estimates](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/nato-estimates-russian-combat-deaths-top-7-000-in-ukraine), the Russian military has suffered between 10,000 and 15,000 fatalities and between 30,000 and 40,000 total casualties (which include wounded, captured, killed, and missing soldiers) from Ukrainian forces equipped with Stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-tank systems, [Bayraktar TB2 drones](https://time.com/6153197/ukraine-russia-turkish-drones-bayraktar/), and other lethal weapons and systems, many of them sent by the West. Yet Putin remains committed to waging a scorched-earth campaign in Ukraine. The Russian military has devastated several Ukrainian cities with artillery barrages, guided and unguided missiles launched from aircraft, long-range cruise missiles from naval vessels, and hypersonic missiles. Putin is attempting to turn the tide of the war in Moscow’s favor, as he did in Syria in 2015 and Chechnya in 1999—despite inauspicious starts. The Russian military ground out victories in both cases. Moscow benefited from successful interdiction efforts to curb the flow of weapons and material to rebel fighters, a cowed local population, and effective information operations that complemented a punishing military campaign. But Moscow lacks all of these conditions today in Ukraine. The Russian military has struggled to interdict the steady stream of weapons and material flowing into the country, failed to intimidate Ukrainians, and is losing the [information war](https://time.com/6155869/bellingcat-eliot-higgins-ukraine-open-source-intelligence/). Putin now has much to lose in Ukraine—including his legacy—if he fails to turn the tide of the war. So much is now at stake for Putin—with his military suffering staggering casualties, his economy in shambles, and his country increasingly isolated from the West—that he is likely to continue to escalate the war. But Moscow can lose the war if the U.S. and its Western partners are able to increase the number and type of weapons to Ukraine over a sustained period. Economic and diplomatic steps will only be effective if Ukraine can hold off the Russian military on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military’s stockpiles have repeatedly run low—and will continue to do so over the course of the war. “We didn’t have enough in the first place,” said Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K., in late March. “Running out of weaponry will be seen in the week to come.” **_Read More:_** [**_Ukrainians Blame Putin—And Russians—For the War_**](https://time.com/6160347/ukrainians-blame-russians-for-war/) Sustained [U.S. and Western support](https://time.com/6157257/nato-ukraine-military-aid/) is essential for Ukraine to prevent Russian forces from seizing and holding territory. Territorial control is key. Ukrainian forces have held off Russian advances around [Kyiv](https://time.com/6158001/ukraine-invasion-in-photos-kyiv-russia/), Kharkiv, and some other cities. But the Russians have seized limited territory in northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine, including around Kherson, Mariupol, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Western military aid is critical to help Ukraine push back Russian forces on the battlefield and increase Russian costs in blood and treasure. Examples of weapons and systems that Ukraine needs include anti-tank weapons systems, armed drones, surface-to-air missile systems, and anti-ship missiles. Ukraine could also use additional S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems to target Russian aircraft, which could be provided by Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Greece. The U.S. and NATO should also provide fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, and other higher-end platforms if Russia continues to escalate the war. Ukraine is an ideal country to support a sustained campaign against Russian forces. Ukraine shares a 716-mile border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, where the West can continue to pour in weapons and other material. Russia lacks the ground forces to effectively interdict this pipeline, and Moscow’s pinprick missile strikes in western Ukraine have failed to stop the flow. Yet the worst is probably yet to come. The U.S. needs to prepare for Russian escalation, including more strikes against supply lines in western Ukraine, greater targeting of civilian populations, the use of chemical weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, and possible attacks against countries like Poland that are critical to the arms pipeline. But the U.S. and its partners can’t be intimidated by any of Putin’s actions and slow down the flow of weapons and material. To complement these military efforts, the U.S. needs to increase [economic sanctions](https://time.com/6155581/russia-sanctions-global-economic-impact/) against Russia and continue to politically isolate Moscow. In addition, the U.S. and its Western partners should increase efforts to break through the [digital Iron Curtain](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/behind-russias-digital-iron-curtain-tech-workarounds-thrive-2022-03-23/) so that Russia’s population knows the extent of the military, economic, and political damage caused by Putin. All of these steps are important. But preventing the Russian military from seizing and holding territory on the battlefield is the cornerstone. If Moscow loses the war, it will emerge politically, economically, and militarily weaker in ways that shift the global balance of power in favor of the U.S. and its democratic allies. That would be an important victory for freedom and human rights. ## Transcript President Zelensky once again calling on NATO for a no-fly zone... totality of our economic sanctions... that you hear about the humanitarian corridor... When it comes to the conflict in Ukraine, there are a lot of terms that are being thrown around. Here are a few that you should know. Oligarchs are Russian businessmen, who amass wealth very quickly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Most of them, through friendships and corruption, basically. They control different parts of the Russian infrastructure. So the Biden administration has developed a task force to go after property, such as yachts, and summer homes and things of this nature. And the hope is that this small group, relatively small group of men can apply some pressure to Vladimir Putin to make him stand down this war. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was started after World War Two. Its whole purpose was to stand against the Soviet Union. Nations like France, Britain, United States, they stood up this alliance, which it has a defining principle that, you know, attack against one is attack against all. One of the things that that Putin brings up when he has his list of complaints against the West, is the fact that, you know, Ukraine was being considered as becoming a member of the the NATO alliance. They're not, of course, and they haven't been brought in, but just the threat of that was enough for Putin to, you know, launch this assault into Ukraine. His big fear is that, you know, the alliance would pre-position military forces and capabilities along his border that would threaten the existence of Russia. Sanctions are measures like, hey, let's let's cut Russia off from the global banking system. That's one set of sanctions. Let's all agree not to buy Russian oil. It's a set of agreements between countries on one side of a conflict to kind of politically and economically ostracize a country that is a bad actor. Russia wants to decapitate the Government of Ukraine, they want to overthrow that government and install their own. And the way that they're applying that pressure is by going after major population centers. They've already launched over 600 missiles into major cities creating a humanitarian crisis. And seeing this, Ukraine has tried to cut a deal with Russia to be able to open up a number of corridors in which civilians are allowed to leave combat zones. Russia has already been seen to have violated this and to have targeted these areas. When we think of a nuclear weapon, we think of obliterating an entire city. Tactical nuclear weapons are designed to be more contained to a limited geography, to a smaller area of space. No army, no nation has ever used a tactical nuke in combat before. You know, the United States has said its nuclear umbrella extends to the NATO allies. Of course, Ukraine is not a NATO ally. But just a use of a nuclear weapon would demand that the United States would have to respond in some meaningful way. The United States has had air superiority over every war since World War Two. So the idea with a no-fly zone is that the United States does not allow another military to operate over a specific area. And if any aircraft breached that airspace, the United States or its allies would shoot down the enemy aircraft. This is off limits for the Biden administration because it puts American pilots in direct combat with Russian pilots, the risk of escalation and going into worldwide conflict grows exponentially greater. The United States has done no fly zones before, most recently in Libya, and also in Iraq. But the Air Force has they faced there were largely run down and much smaller numbers. So SWIFT is a messaging system that allows banks to communicate with each other about transactions that are being made. And by cutting Russia off from SWIFT, it means that people and organizations and banks inside Russia can no longer communicate with the outside banking world and complete transactions that are very important to to doing business in the country and doing business internationally. The Bayraktar drones are smaller drone systems that have their Turkish-made. And they've been used to devastating effect on Russian military. The Russian military has been stalled and they've encountered stiff resistance in almost every place that they've gone, you know, they're running out of fuel and food and the logistics problems that they've had, have basically made them sitting ducks they're stalled out. 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