--- title: What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine description: With Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, the world is wondering what President Vladimir Putin will do next canonical: https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2021-11-22T18:10:30.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:03:44.309Z article:section: Ideas og:title: What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine og:description: With Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, the world is wondering what President Vladimir Putin will do next og:url: https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3e62a4e94ef2e51b/698a2006b21a9c3a7f5057af/Putin-Ukraine-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: Russia Putin og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine twitter:description: With Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, the world is wondering what President Vladimir Putin will do next twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3e62a4e94ef2e51b/698a2006b21a9c3a7f5057af/Putin-Ukraine-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine > Sponsored content. 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It explains how TIME's journalism is made, from the first pitch through the editorial decisions behind a finished story or cover. #### How can I read about how TIME chooses its covers? Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ## Video: The Azov Battalion: Inside Ukraine's White Supremacist Militia [Watch (HLS stream): The Azov Battalion: Inside Ukraine's White Supremacist Militia](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/38ICJlCE.m3u8) (8:12)  _Published 2021-01-07. TIME Correspondent, Simon Shuster, travels to Ukraine in the summer of 2019 to investigate white supremacists militias that were recruiting people to join their fight._  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 22, 2021 6:10 PM UTC  Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to the head of Russian Federal Taxation Service Daniil Yegorov during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Nov. 22, 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to the head of Russian Federal Taxation Service Daniil Yegorov during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Nov. 22, 2021. Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik-AP)  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Nov 22, 2021 6:10 PM UTC In recent weeks, Russia has [advanced](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-administration.html) more than 100,000 soldiers to its border with Ukraine. The Ukrainian government, fearing an attack, has called on Europe and the U.S. for help. A Kremlin spokesperson says Russia [poses no threat](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-kremlin-ukraine-nato-threats-521031) to anyone, but its 2014 invasion of Crimea and its ongoing material support for separatist rebels in Ukraine’s Donbas region (along with related denials of the same) have European and U.S. officials on alert. E.U. chief Ursula von der Leyen insists the E.U. and U.S. “fully support the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” and together they’re publicly discussing retaliatory steps, mainly sanctions, if Russia crosses the border. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a Russian incursion would be a [“serious mistake,”](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/us/politics/russia-blinken-ukraine.html) and the U.S. has reportedly shipped some 80 tons of ammunition to Ukraine to support Kyiv. What’s Vladimir Putin up to? In recent years, the Russian President has fully embraced Cold War–style, anti-Western words and actions, at least in part as a means of boosting his sagging approval ratings. A poll published in October by [Moscow’s Levada Center](https://www.levada.ru/en/) found that Russian trust in Putin had fallen to 53%, its lowest level since 2012\. History shows that picking fights with Ukraine can help with that. Russian troops, Putin claims, are responding to Western provocations in the Black Sea, where NATO has recently staged unannounced military exercises. Why should Russia, he asks, ignore the hostile presence of U.S. and European warships and fighter planes so near Russia’s coastline? It’s also possible that Putin is signaling to Ukraine’s President [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://time.com/5954068/zelensky-ukraine-russia-standoff/) not to try to boost his own slumping ratings by becoming more militarily aggressive with the Donbas rebels in coming months. Despite all this, a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains unlikely. Seven years ago, when Putin grabbed Crimea in retaliation for the political upheaval in Kyiv that forced Ukraine’s pro-Russia President to flee the country, his troops were entering the only part of Ukraine where a majority of citizens were ethnic Russians. That guaranteed a mostly friendly reception. At the time, the Kremlin also had the element of surprise. The subsequent Russian backing for Ukraine’s Donbas separatists likewise took place on mostly friendly territory. Today, Putin’s aggressions have permanently poisoned the attitudes of tens of millions of Ukrainians toward Moscow. --- ### More from TIME --- That’s why any Russian advance into new Ukrainian territory would prove extremely costly for Russia. Ukraine can’t defeat Russia on the ground, and NATO wouldn’t join the fighting, but heavy Russian casualties and the financial costs of holding hostile territory are too politically expensive for a Russian President who isn’t as popular as he used to be. In fact, another Levada poll has found that though Russians tend to blame the West for trouble in Ukraine, they don’t think a “full-scale war” with Ukraine would go well for Putin’s domestic standing. All that said, Ukraine is in no position to ignore the sudden expanded presence of Russian troops along its border, and U.S. and European officials know that any less than forceful statement of their support can make hostile Russian action more likely. The risk of war remains low, but no one will relax until those Russian soldiers step back. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/"},"headline":"What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine","datePublished":"2021-11-22T18:10:30.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T08:03:44.309Z","description":"With Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, the world is wondering what President Vladimir Putin will do next","url":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/","keywords":["Ukraine"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3e62a4e94ef2e51b/698a2006b21a9c3a7f5057af/Putin-Ukraine-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ian Bremmer","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3e62a4e94ef2e51b/698a2006b21a9c3a7f5057af/Putin-Ukraine-01.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Russia Putin","caption":"Russia Putin","creditText":"Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik-AP)","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/ukraine/","name":"Ukraine"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/","name":"What Vladimir Putin Is Up To in Ukraine"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"The Azov Battalion: Inside Ukraine's White Supremacist Militia","description":"TIME Correspondent, Simon Shuster, travels to Ukraine in the summer of 2019 to investigate white supremacists militias that were recruiting people to join their fight.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/38ICJlCE/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2021-01-07T22:40:43.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/38ICJlCE.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/","duration":"PT8M12S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/6122671/vladimir-putin-ukraine/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```