--- title: Is U.S. COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Working? We're Not Sure description: The COVID-19 vaccines are effective on an individual level, but it's too early to tell if they're having a big-picture impact. canonical: https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/ author: Chris Wilson article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2021-04-08T12:00:14.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:11:06.393Z article:section: Health og:title: Is the U.S. COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Working? We're Not Sure Yet og:description: The vaccines are effective on an individual level, but it's too early to tell if they're having a big-picture impact og:url: https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt343ef0bdc3515dcc/698a188697cdffcf6f6bbd21/covid-19-vaccination.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: COVID-19 Vaccination og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Is the U.S. COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Working? We're Not Sure Yet twitter:description: The vaccines are effective on an individual level, but it's too early to tell if they're having a big-picture impact twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt343ef0bdc3515dcc/698a188697cdffcf6f6bbd21/covid-19-vaccination.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Is the U.S. COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Working? We're Not Sure Yet > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME Health Matters: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Health Matters is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. The latest health news and expert advice on living well. Health Matters makes the fast-moving world of health more useful, surprising and human, from the latest science and medical breakthroughs to practical ideas for living better. 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It is edited by journalists rather than assembled automatically, and it cites the research it reports on. #### Is Health Matters free? Yes. Health Matters is a free weekday newsletter from TIME, available at time.com/newsletters. #### Who reads TIME's Health Matters newsletter? Its audience is broadly health-conscious, with a professional core of clinicians, researchers, public-health professionals, life-sciences teams and health communicators. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-health-2026q3/newsletters?i=f6b3ab46-f891-4776-a5b2-db2a7dbd0220&cr=time-nl-health-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Tracking the Vaccine: From Freezer to Front Line [Watch (HLS stream): Tracking the Vaccine: From Freezer to Front Line](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/0dwzz5K2.m3u8) (4:28)  _Published 2021-01-20. TIME followed the vaccination process from a Walgreens freezer to a long-term care facility to see what the roll out can look like._  by [Chris Wilson](https://time.com/author/chris-wilson/)  ## Chris Wilson Apr 8, 2021 12:00 PM UTC  by [Chris Wilson](https://time.com/author/chris-wilson/)  ## Chris Wilson Apr 8, 2021 12:00 PM UTC After four months and 171 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines [administered](https://time.com/collection/coronavirus-vaccines-updates/) across the U.S., more than a few of us are eager to know: are the shots working? Thus far, available evidence can half-answer that question: The vaccines are working well for those who can get them. As soon as the rollout kicked off, a [variety of researchers](https://time.com/5950829/vaccines-covid-19-infection-real-world-study/) began conducting what might be considered an unofficial phase 4 clinical trial, monitoring early vaccine recipients among the general public. Several of their studies have found a significant reduction in both the rates of infection and severity of symptoms among vaccinated populations compared to similar demographics who are still awaiting a dose. On an individual level, the vaccines appear to be working as well in real life as they did in controlled trials. But there’s another part of that question: will mass vaccination hasten the end of the pandemic? On first pass, this might seem to be happening. As of April 7, [nearly 20% of Americans](https://time.com/collection/coronavirus-vaccines-updates/) have received a completed regimen of either the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, or the one-shot Janssen variety. Meanwhile, the daily number of deaths in the U.S. attributed to COVID-19, on a rolling seven-day average, is currently 611—a ghastly figure, but a tremendous drop from the all-time post-holiday peak of 3,428 on Jan. 11\. The last time the figure was this low was on Jul. 4, 2020, just before deaths climbed again in the wake of a [second wave](https://time.com/5852913/covid-second-wave/) over the summer, from which the country never fully recovered before the much more catastrophic [third wave](https://time.com/5893916/covid-19-coronavirus-third-wave/) spurred by the holidays. Unfortunately, the researchers I’ve consulted were unanimous in saying that it’s far too soon to attribute the decline in deaths to the vaccine rollout on even a tentative basis. In part, that’s because vaccination rates are still too low to show a connection. Meanwhile, changes in the death toll typically lag behind changes in cases by several weeks—and when it comes to measuring whether mass vaccination can slow or end the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s a decline in the death toll that matters most. “Mortality is probably the first place to look because death is a definitive event, unlike cases, even though we all know that COVID deaths are undercounted,” says Dr. Philip Landrigan, director of the Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good at Boston College, who previously worked in the Immunization Program at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The critical question is whether the U.S. COVID-19 mortality figures will continue declining as vaccination accelerates, or whether the current dip is merely a temporary nadir ahead of what may very well be a [coming fourth wave](https://time.com/5951490/covid-fourth-wave/), as improving weather and misguided complacency lures more of the population out of their proverbial bunkers. Even the most capable, data-rich biostatisticians say many more Americans will need to be vaccinated before we can measure the impact of mass inoculation. As an [article in the journal _Nature_](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00140-w) recently put it, “teasing apart the population-level effects of vaccines on a drop in COVID-19 cases from the impacts of other public-health interventions, such as social distancing and lockdowns, will be tricky.” Landrigan and other experts I consulted—while armed with a sheaf of scatterplots I made comparing each state’s vaccination rate to various COVID-19 metrics, looking for at least a crude correlation—said the same thing. However, my largely fruitless examination of the state-by-state figures did turn up a few points of interest. Nearly every state is currently reporting mortality figures resembling the interregnum last summer or last October, between peaks that began in June and again in the fall. The exceptions are mainly a handful of states that have recently added previously overlooked COVID-19 deaths to their totals, which often creates an artificial spike in the data. There’s also significant variation in the percent of the population that is fully vaccinated across the union, from a low of 14.1% in Georgia to a high of 26.4% in New Mexico. If this disparity persists, it may offer some clue as to the vaccines’ population-wide efficacy—assuming the trajectory of the mortality rate across the states aligns with their vaccination rates several months from now. But that organic experiment is likely to offer only a hint at best, given that populations, public health policies and other variables differ tremendously from one state to the next. What will be considerably more telling, I suspect, is which direction the mortality rate bends in the three-way tug-of-war between the vaccination rollout, the mutation of the virus, and people (sometimes prematurely) reengaging with the outside world. Untangling those strands is further complicated by the fact that any effort by governors and other leaders to reduce COVID-19 mortality is like steering a giant boat: The results of turning the wheel are not immediate, and sometimes you get [stuck in the Suez](https://time.com/5950791/suez-canal-ship-blockage-trade/). In the interim, researchers will continue to study both smaller populations with much higher vaccination rates, like nursing homes, as well as countries like Israel, which was at least initially successful in a widespread vaccination rollout, though the [pace has since tempered](https://time.com/5947967/israel-covid-vaccine-rollout/). It’s very easy to forget that we’ve been here before, nearly a year ago. With spring in full bloom and Memorial Day tantalizingly close, states at this time last year were drawing up schemes for [reopening beaches](https://time.com/5844720/social-distancing-simulation-coronavirus/) and restaurants to at least a fraction of the original capacity. The result was catastrophic, with cases and deaths ballooning through mid-July. The need to accelerate the vaccination program before the lure of summer intercedes has never been more exigent—nor has the imperative to remain cautious and patient, even when the end appears to be in sight. After more than a year of hermitage, everyone is restless. And there’s no vaccine for that. ## Transcript But I am very excited that you finally come up with a vaccine. I feel the weight of it that this is going to do some good for us. And you know that I'm ready for it to start happening. You know, waiting to be in line to get my shot to. Just all the way to the Yankees or. Don't sign for Colbert. So they don't say. I actually. The biggest challenge has been temperature requirements, because that has to be kept at ultracold temperature of negative seven degrees Celsius. Or if we are transporting in a refrigeration, we have a lot more monitoring for that because it's only good for so many hours if the temperature excursion happens. And then there is a lot of responsibility in terms of liability. This vaccine has been very popular, so we have security protocols. We are putting SEALs when they're transporting. We have cameras installed specifically for this over and. Yeah. And be sorry. All right. Keep your arm relaxed. Oh, just the needle all done. You're not even bleeding. So my grandmother actually just passed away, I mean, less than two months ago from it. So to be out here protecting other people's grandparents is really touching me personally. Like, I really appreciate the opportunity and just so happy to be a part of it. The staff members here, we have about 240 that we're doing. We can get through usually with this many immunizations, 40 or 50 an hour at this facility specifically, we have over 100 residents that are all room to room based. So that takes a little more time. And then have you ever had a reaction after receiving a vaccine in the past? I can see how grateful they are. And I'm just grateful and honored to be able to give them the vaccine for me to be able to do it directly. You know, the last patient I just did, she's like, I'm waiting for the vaccine. And I was like, I'm here with the vaccine. And she's like, You're here with the vaccine. So I'm part of the bigger movement of vaccinating basically America. And that's it. Well, that's the easiest one I ever had. I'm glad with hay fever, I was you know, they can't come and visit me and I can't go visit them. But it's. Oh, gosh, it makes me mad anyway. It really is hard. And it's been harder for a lot of other people who have lost folks. And so I haven't had that problem, but it's awful. So I will mask myself any time to prevent that from happening. When I was a kid, everybody knew people who had somebody in their family that had polio. Any vaccine that prevents unnecessary pain and suffering is a good thing to have. All right. I'm just going to sanitize your arm real quick. I am happy that my son sometimes he talks to me on Facebook on face time. This time. And my daughter calls me every night. I know I can touch them and see them, but I just think the time will come. I hope. I hope I'm still alive. And make sure you're safe. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5953007/covid-19-mass-vaccination/"},"headline":"Is the U.S. COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Working? 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