--- title: Climate Change: Summer Temperatures Hit New Records description: Summer temperatures in the second half of the century could exceed the hottest summers in history without curbing greenhouse gas emissions canonical: https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-06-13T22:09:27.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-22T22:34:30.943Z article:section: Science og:title: Future Summers Could Leave Heat Records in the Dust, Study Says og:description: Summers are going to get hotter og:url: https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfccdce2163e3ecf1/698897a12dce01ff159e972e/summer-weather-temperature.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: summer weather temperature og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Future Summers Could Leave Heat Records in the Dust, Study Says twitter:description: Summers are going to get hotter twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfccdce2163e3ecf1/698897a12dce01ff159e972e/summer-weather-temperature.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Future Summers Could Leave Heat Records in the Dust, Study Says > Sponsored content. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters.  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jun 13, 2016 10:09 PM UTC  A life guard watches swimmers on a hot afternoon at Coney Island on Aug. 31, 2010 in New York City. A life guard watches swimmers on a hot afternoon at Coney Island on Aug. 31, 2010 in New York City. Spencer Platt—Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jun 13, 2016 10:09 PM UTC Average summer temperatures in the second half of this century could regularly exceed the hottest summers in living history without efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, according to new [research](http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2). The study, published in the journal _Climatic Change_, finds an 80% chance that summers between 2061 and 2081 will be hotter than any in nearly the last 100 years if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced, which means average temperatures could rise as much as 5°C (9°F). The likelihood drops to 41% if temperature rise is kept to around 2.4°C (4.3°F). Average temperatures in individual months have already risen more than 1.2°C (2.2°F). “Extremely hot summers always pose a challenge to society,” said study author Flavio Lehner, a researcher at National Center for Atmospheric Research. “Such summers are a true test of our adaptability to rising temperatures.” **Read More:** [2016 Expected to Be the Warmest Year on Record](http://time.com/4154331/warmest-year-2016-climate-change-el-nino/) Even if the world can cut greenhouse gases, summers will be getting hotter—potentially much hotter. Chances of record hot summers with average temperatures 7 or 8°F higher dewould remain higher than 90% on the east coast of the United States, for instance, even with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, according to the research. Parts of Brazil, Central Europe and China would see dramatic drops in the likelihood of record high summers with a drop in emissions. Countries from around the globe committed to working to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100 above pre-industrial levels in Paris last year. But in the short time since the [Paris Agreement](http://time.com/4146764/paris-agreement-climate-cop-21/) temperatures have risen dangerously close to that threshold and many experts question whether the 2°C goal is attainable. February temperatures reached 1.2°C (2.2°F) higher than the average global temperature for that month during the 20th century—the [most above-average](http://time.com/4261719/february-heat-records-climate-change/) temperatures ever recorded. “If we continue to burn fossil fuels and increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we will assume that this level of warmth will be perpetual,” Michael Mann, professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University, said at the time. “This is a reminder that we need to need to decarbonize.” ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/"},"headline":"Future Summers Could Leave Heat Records in the Dust, Study Says","datePublished":"2016-06-13T22:09:27.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-22T22:34:30.943Z","description":"Summers are going to get hotter","url":"https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/","keywords":["climate change"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfccdce2163e3ecf1/698897a12dce01ff159e972e/summer-weather-temperature.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltfccdce2163e3ecf1/698897a12dce01ff159e972e/summer-weather-temperature.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"summer weather temperature","caption":"summer weather temperature","creditText":"Spencer Platt—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate-change/","name":"climate change"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4367093/summer-heat-climate-change/","name":"Future Summers Could Leave Heat Records in the Dust, Study Says"}}]}] ```