Here’s Why Germany Is Welcoming Migrants With Open Arms

3 minute read

A German official said Tuesday the country can sustain up to 500,000 or more new asylum-seekers or more every year, a comment that comes as hundreds of thousands of people from war-torn countries across the Middle East and Africa are making their way to Europe to chase the promise of a better life.

But what’s the economic effect of so many migrants streaming into Germany? The country expects to receive 800,000 refugees and migrants by the end of 2015. That could cost as much as 10 billion euros, according to local government estimates. Next year, German officials estimate that as many as 460,000 more people could be entitled to social benefits.

Some anti-immigration groups argue foreigners are a drain on a country’s economy, as they seek to avail themselves of government services before contributing to the state themselves. But Germany has a long history of outsiders representing a net positive for the country’s economy. The 6.6 million people living in Germany with foreign passports paid $4,127 more in taxes and social security on average than they took in social benefits in 2012–generating a surplus of 22 billion euros that year, according to one report. German officials are hopeful that, in the long run, this summer’s new flood of refugees could result in a similar economic gain.

See Images of the Mediterranean's Migrant Crisis

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A ship belonging to Italian authorities approaches one of three migrant rafts some 120 miles off the Italian coast, about 40 miles from Libya, on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
Italian authorities are seen during an operation some 120 miles off the Italian coast that rescued more than 100 migrants coming from Libya on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
A boat of migrants that set off from Libya, as seen from a ship belonging to Italian authorities, during a rescue operation on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
A member of Italy's Guardia di Finanza brings a migrant aboard after they were rescued from an inflatable boat, which originated in Libya and was found some 120 miles off the Italian coast in the Mediterranean, on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
Immigrants from Bangladesh on a ship belonging to Italy's financial police after being rescued some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
An officer with Italy's financial police speaks to colleagues on a radio from the command cabin during a migrant rescue operation—which also involved the Italian and Irish navies—some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
Smoke billows from a migrant boat, set ablaze by Italian authorities so other smugglers don't use it, after they rescued more than 100 people some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
Rescued immigrants are covered with thermal sheets in Lampedusa after being rescued some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
An African man disembarks a ship belonging to Italy's financial police after being rescued with about 100 other people in an operation some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli
migrants rescue mediterranean italy
An African boy stands covered with a thermal sheet in Lampedusa after being rescued some 120 miles off the Italian coast on June 6, 2015.Giulio Piscitelli

“We will profit from this, too, because we need immigration,” German Labor Minister Andrea Nahles said. “The people who come to us as refugees should be welcomed as neighbors and colleagues.”

Part of Germany’s rationale for allowing hundreds of thousands of migrants through the doors lies in demographics. Germany has one of the world’s most rapidly aging and shrinking populations. With one of the world’s lowest birthrates, the country relies on immigration to plug a growing workforce hole. According to one expert quoted in Deutsche Welle last year, the German economy needs to attract 1.5 million skilled migrants to stabilize the state pension system as more Germans retire. An influx of young migrants could improve the country’s dependency ratio, a measure of those over 65 compared to those of general working age between 15 and 64. According to current official estimates, every third German could be over 65 by 2060, leaving two workers to support each retiree.

Still, the jury is still hung on whether immigrants overall serve as drains or boosts to economies. According to one 2011 working paper from Harvard Business School, immigrants in Northern Europe have traditionally started off as a drain on state resources, though some of their wages tend to increase over time, allowing them to contribute back to the state.

Ultimately, whether or not this new wave of migrants helps or hinders Germany’s economy depends heavily on the skillsets they bring. Many of Germany’s current working foreigners — the ones that created the surplus mentioned above — are high-skilled workers from other European countries like Greece. In contrast, the migrants flooding into Germany right now may not be as well-trained. Though the research on the subject is thin, one estimate pegs more than half of refugees lack professional training. That means German policymakers will have to do a very good job of taking unskilled workers and incorporating them into the German labor force in a way that makes sense for long-term growth, whether that’s by incentivizing them to take low-skilled jobs or training them to do higher-level work.

Photographers Aim to Put a Face on Europe's Migrant Crisis

Ras Ajdir, Tunisia. 03/2011 - Border between Lybia and Tunisia. Refugee from Lybia in the camp. Community from bangadesh protesting for the conditions.
Refugees from Libya rest in Ras Ajdir, a coastal town on the border between Libya and Tunisia in March, 2011. Davide Monteleone—VII
Refugees run to reach their transport to continue their journey in Libya, near the border with Egypt, May 18, 2014.
Refugees run to reach their transport to continue their journey in Libya, near the border with Egypt, May 18, 2014.Giulio Piscitelli—Contrasto/Redux
Zarzis, Tunisia - 03/2011. Migrants getting ready to board the boat to reach Italy from the coast of Tunisia.
Migrants get ready to board the boat to reach Italy from the coast of Zarzis, Tunisia, March 13, 2011. Davide Monteleone—VII
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A row of corpses line Al-Baida Beach in Bir Ali, Yemen, May 2, 2007. A total of 34 bodies were found. Just one week after an almost identical tragedy saw 30 dead on a nearby beach, Somali smugglers continued to drop their human cargo out at sea rather than coming close to shore and risking detection. Alixandra Fazzina—NOOR
Kingsley, carnet de route d'un immigrant clandestin.
A group of men look out to the city of Melilla, Spain from a garbage dump in Morocco in Nov. 2004. It is a short distance from North Africa to mainland Spain. Olivier Jobard—MYOP
Kingsley, carnet de route d'un immigrant clandestin.
A smuggler's boat bringing illegal immigrants from North Africa to the Canary Islands capsized near the coast in Nov. 2004. Few could swim and two men drowned. Olivier Jobard—MYOP
Kingsley, carnet de route d'un immigrant clandestin.
After a shipwreck off the coast of Morocco in Nov. 2004, only four of 34 men still had their shoes. The others lost everything, including their clothes, and had to make sandals out of makeshift items such as plastic bottles. Olivier Joabrd—MYOP
Italian navy rescues asylum seekers traveling by boat off the coast of Africa on the Mediterranean, June 7, 2014.
Italian navy rescues asylum seekers traveling by boat off the coast of Africa on the Mediterranean, June 7, 2014.Massimo Sestini—Polaris
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Two Afghan boys throw stones into the sea, while waiting for the evening to arrive, when they can sneak into the port and board a ship bound for Italy illegally in Patras, Italy, March 8, 2012. Patras is one of the main escape points from Greece, due to the numerous cargo ships that dock in the port and are bound for Italy. Alessandro Penso—Magnum Foundation
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Mohamed from Morocco and his friends hide behind the rocks at the port, waiting for the right moment to illegally board a ship to Italy from Corinth, Greece, Feb. 21, 2012. In Greece, more than 99.5 percent of requests for political asylum are rejected, so these young people are forced to hide from the authorities.Alessandro Penso—Magnum Foundation
Sub-Saharan migrants scale a metallic fence that divides Morocco and the Spanish enclave of Melilla on May 28, 2014.
Sub-Saharan migrants scale a metallic fence that divides Morocco and the Spanish enclave of Melilla, May 28, 2014. Santi Palacios—AP
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Roughly 250 refugees from Egypt and Syria, among other countries, are checked by Doctors Without Borders as they disembark from an Italian ship, after being intercepted and rescued at sea en route to Italy from Egypt to the port in Pozzallo, Sicily, Italy, in Sept. 2014.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage
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A family of Syrian refugees holds its identification. Nearly 300 Syrians landed in the port of Catania, Dec. 6, 2014.Alessio Mamo—Redux
Afghan refugees, Kabir and Zaher, sit by a fire in Subotica, Serbia on Nov. 10, 2012. Zaher, who lost his left leg below the knees, made it to Serbia on crutches. Zaher says he is 16 and Kabir 15. The two were traveling together from Greece. The men they lived outdoors in Subotica, waiting for smugglers to give the green light to continue their journey.
Afghan refugees, Kabir and Zaher, sit by a fire in Subotica, Serbia, Nov. 10, 2012. Zaher, who lost his left leg below the knees, made it to Serbia on crutches. Zaher says he is 16 and Kabir 15. The two were traveling together from Greece. The men lived outdoors in Subotica, waiting for smugglers to give the green light to continue their journey. Daniel Etter—Redux
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Refugees from Syria inside the Harmanli camp in Bulgaria, Nov. 19, 2013. The biggest of Bulgaria’s “emergency centers” for refugees is in the town of Harmanli, about 18 miles (30 km) away from the Turkish border, where around 1,000 asylum-seekers are being detained on a former military base.Alessandro Penso—Magnum Foundation
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A young girl from Syria cooks inside the Harmanli camp in Bulgaria, Nov. 19, 2013. People living in tents have no access to sanitation facilities. Although there are four toilets in a building at the entrance of the center, they are frequently blocked and hardly adequate for hundreds of people. The tents are not heated and the residents sleep either on thin mattresses or on old foldable beds.Alessandro Penso—Magnum Foundation
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Nezarisa Sakhi, a 31-year-old Iraqi, in Banya refugee center in Bulgaria on May 16, 2014. Sakhi was attacked on the evening of Sept. 16, 2013 by nine Bulgarians, one of whom Nezarisa says had a knife. He was beaten and pushed off a bridge, breaking his leg. Alessandro Penso—Magnum Foundation
Nawras Soukhta, a 15-year-old from Damascus, sits in the train traveling from Stockholm to Malmö, Sweden, a few hours after his plane lands in Sweden. After 11 days sailing to Italy from Turkey, and another week traveling through Italy, the train ride to Malmö is the final leg of a three-week journey he has made in the hopes of applying for asylum in Sweden.
Nawras Soukhta, a 15-year-old from Damascus, sits in the train traveling from Stockholm to Malmö, Sweden, a few hours after his plane lands in Sweden on Oct. 22, 2014. After 11 days sailing to Italy from Turkey, and another week traveling through Italy, the train ride to Malmö is the final leg of a three-week journey he has made in the hopes of applying for asylum in Sweden. Mackenzie Knowles-Coursin
Mansour, an immigrant from Mali waits a friend in downtown Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria on Dec. 7, 2014. He is in a shelter in south-western part of the city.
Mansour, an immigrant from Mali waits a friend in downtown Sofia, Bulgaria, Dec. 7, 2014. He is in a shelter in south-western part of the city. Giulio Piscitelli—Contrasto/Redux
A pair of trousers lie on the seabed near the shipwreck of the 66-foot-long fishing boat that sank off the coast of the Italian island of Lampedusa lies at a depth of 164 ft. on the seabed, on Sept. 22, 2014. The tragedy that happened a year ago on Oct. 3, 2013 killed 366 migrants from North Africa.
A pair of trousers lie on the seabed near the shipwreck of the 66-foot-long fishing boat that sank off the coast of the Italian island of Lampedusa lies at a depth of 164 ft. on the seabed, Sept. 22, 2014. The tragedy that happened a year ago on Oct. 3, 2013 killed 366 migrants from North Africa. Francesco Zizola—NOOR

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