--- title: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Win Senate in 2014 Midterm Elections description: FiveThirtyEight makes one of its first major political predictions since its relaunch: Republicans will take back the senate in the 2014 midterm elections canonical: https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/ author: Eliana Dockterman article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-03-23T20:03:52.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-21T06:55:01.614Z article:section: Politics og:title: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Win Senate in 2014 Midterm Elections og:description: FiveThirtyEight makes one of its first major political predictions since its relaunch: Republicans will take back the senate in the 2014 midterm elections og:url: https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29e6fd268bc0b853/698686da55a8597248a7fdec/nate-silver.jpg?branch=production&width=1920&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: Edinburgh International Book Festival og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Win Senate in 2014 Midterm Elections twitter:description: FiveThirtyEight makes one of its first major political predictions since its relaunch: Republicans will take back the senate in the 2014 midterm elections twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29e6fd268bc0b853/698686da55a8597248a7fdec/nate-silver.jpg?branch=production&width=1920&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Nate Silver: GOP Ahead In Race For Senate  by [Eliana Dockterman](https://time.com/author/eliana-dockterman/)  ## Eliana Dockterman Correspondent Mar 23, 2014 8:03 PM UTC  <> on August 12, 2013 in Edinburgh, Scotland. <> on August 12, 2013 in Edinburgh, Scotland.Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert—Getty Images  by [Eliana Dockterman](https://time.com/author/eliana-dockterman/)  ## Eliana Dockterman Correspondent Mar 23, 2014 8:03 PM UTC Famed statistician and political prognosticator Nate Silver is predicting that the [Republicans are the slight favorites to take control of the senate](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/) in the 2014 midterm elections. Silver’s data-based journalism site FiveThirtyEight [relaunched last week](http://time.com/13804/hey-sports-fans-its-time-for-math-class/) with new backing from ESPN and made its first prediction about this year’s midterm elections since last July. Silver says current polling suggests the GOP will win at least six seats in the Senate, enough to give them an overall majority. Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the 2012 presidential election battle between President Barack Obama and Republican contender Mitt Romney. That same year, Silver correctly predicted 31 of 33 U.S. senate races. He announced in 2013 that FiveThirtyEight would move from The New York _Times_ to become a standalone site under the auspices of ESPN. According to FiveThirtyEight, here’s what would need to happen for the Republicans to take advantage of the drop in Obama’s approval ratings and win the senate: --- > “” --- However, Silver says that it “wouldn’t take much” for the Democrats to recalibrate in the coming months and pull ahead. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/"},"headline":"Nate Silver: GOP Ahead In Race For Senate","datePublished":"2014-03-23T20:03:52.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-21T06:55:01.614Z","description":"Silver's data-driven journalism website FiveThirtyEight made one of its first major political predictions since its relaunch: Republicans will take back the Senate in the midterm elections behind held later this year","url":"https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/","keywords":["2014 midterm elections","Barack Obama","GOP"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29e6fd268bc0b853/698686da55a8597248a7fdec/nate-silver.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Eliana Dockterman","jobTitle":"Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/eliana-dockterman/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29e6fd268bc0b853/698686da55a8597248a7fdec/nate-silver.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Edinburgh International Book Festival","caption":"Edinburgh International Book Festival","creditText":"Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/2014-midterm-elections/","name":"2014 midterm elections"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/34911/nate-silver-predicts-republicans-will-win-senate-in-midterms/","name":"Nate Silver: GOP Ahead In Race For Senate"}}]}] ```