Election ’84: Every Region, Every Age Group, Almost Every Voting Bloc

How a coast-to-coast victory was forged

It was not exactly a total shutout. Walter Mondale did exhibit pockets of strength in the older, industrial cities, and he won among blacks, Jews and people earning less than $10,000 a year. But the true importance of the 1984 election was not simply Ronald Reagan’s overwhelming electoral total. It was the profound demographic shifts that helped account for his landslide. An analysis of the President’s virtually unprecedented avalanche of support shows that he swept not only every region of the country but every age group and almost every demographic voting bloc. Reagan captured most new voters as well as those for whom voting Democratic had been a lifelong tradition. He won most cities and towns, almost every suburb, and swamped his opponent in rural areas. Indeed, he won where few Republicans have ever won before.

The Northeast and industrial Midwest were supposed to form the geographic base for the liberal Democratic ticket. But exit polls there signaled a pattern that would be repeated across the country: Mondale could not win the voting groups he had to carry to defeat Reagan.

In New Jersey, blue-collar voters went for Reagan 57% to 43%, according to NBC’S exit polls. In Pennsylvania, Reagan beat Mondale among voters ages 18 to 24 by 55% to 45%. Reagan won New York’s Italian vote by a stunning 63% to 37%, despite the presence of an Italian American from New York, Geraldine Ferraro, on the Democratic ticket. Even 28% of New York’s self-described liberals voted for Reagan.

In the Midwest, hit hardest by the 1981-82 recession, many traditional Democrats went for Reagan, convinced that his programs deserved credit for the economic recovery. “I’ve always voted Democratic, but this time I’m a Reagan man,” said Ron Firmite, a butcher from Sawyer, Mich. “Everybody in my family is working now, and so is everybody I know who wants to work. That’s a big change from a few years ago.” In Illinois, the warring Democratic factions of Chicago Mayor Harold Washington and Cook County Party Boss Edward Vrdolyak reached a fragile truce but were still unable to deliver the way the late Mayor Richard Daley once did.

In the South, Mondale was counting on a huge black vote to make Dixie Democratic once again. Inspired in large part by Jesse Jackson’s oratory (“Hands that picked cotton can now pick Presidents”), new black voters did register Democratic in record numbers. But the Republicans had added as many other new voters to their rolls and, in some states, more. In Florida, the Republicans outregistered the Democrats 450,000 to 225,000.

The real story of the South was white flight from the Democratic Party. Southern whites voted for Reagan by 71% to 29%. Many Southerners continued to vote Democratic for state and local candidates, but they saw Mondale as a buttoned-up Northerner who had sold out to Big Labor. Lamented Georgia Democratic State Chairman Bert Lance: “The Democrats have been on the wrong side of all the issues.”

In addition, Ferraro appears to have turned off both male and female Southerners, many of whom are not ready for a woman Veep, much less a fast-talking one from Queens. “She made the South ours,” declared Reagan’s political director Edward Rollins. Said Florence Robinson of Memphis: “I’m a liberated woman, but I don’t think a woman should be running things in Washington.”

No Democrat has ever won the White House without winning Texas, and Mondale lost it by 28 points. He made an early push in the Lone-Star State, staging an impressive registration drive that claimed half a million new voters. But the Republicans countered, adding 400,000 to their rolls. Reagan made significant inroads into the Hispanic vote, winning 36%.

Once again, the West was a monolith for the Republicans. To Westerners, Reagan rides tall in the saddle. Mondale, on the other hand, “is the perfect reflection of the left wing of the Democratic Party,” says Arizona’s Democratic Governor Bruce Babbitt. Mondale thought he had an outside chance of picking off the President’s home state, California, by forging a coalition of women, Hispanics, blacks and supporters of a nuclear freeze. He hoped that Reagan’s embrace of Moral Majority Leader Jerry Falwell would not sit well in a state known for its liberal lifestyle. The Democrats signed up 660,000 new voters and spent $4 million on a media blitz. But Reagan won by 16 percentage points. Mondale did not fare as well among California Hispanics as he had hoped; according to an ABC exit poll, he beat Reagan by only 62% to 34%. Even 13% of California’s blacks chose Reagan.

In 1980, NBC exit polls showed that Reagan did worse among voters ages 18 to 24 than he did with any other age group, splitting them evenly with Carter at 44%. On Tuesday young voters went 60% to 40% for Reagan. What changed their minds? A University of Alabama student leader may have answered at a Reagan rally last month when he declared, “Mr. President, we feel with you in office that when we graduate, we can get a job.”

Voters between the ages of 25 and 34 also went heavily for Reagan, 56% to 44%. The much courted yuppie vote was solidly Republican too. As many self-described young professionals chose Reagan (67% to 32%) as did self-described born-again Christians (69% to 31%). Like their younger siblings, those ages 25 to 34 are less likely to be bound by party identification. Indeed, the election showed that those born during and after the baby boom are very much up for grabs in every election.

Richard Wirthlin, the President’s pollster, says that it is wrong to ascribe Reagan’s support among younger voters solely to economic self-interest. According to Wirthlin, surveys show that foreign policy was an even more important issue to them. Although they expressed their concerns about the arms race, Reagan came out ahead in their minds as the candidate who could better deal with the Soviet Union.

Mondale courted senior citizens by warning that Reagan would cut their Social Security and Medicare benefits. But on Tuesday the over-65s went for Reagan 61% to 39%. The fact that Reagan, 73, is the oldest man ever elected President did not seem to bother voters. Just 10% cited his age as a significant issue, fewer than in 1980.

Only blacks voted overwhelmingly for Mondale, choosing him by 91% to 9%. To some black political strategists, that is ominous news. They fear the Democratic Party will move sharply to the right in order to recover all the other voting groups that have forsaken it. Says Ronald Walters, a Howard University political scientist who was Jesse Jackson’s deputy campaign manager: “There will not be many people left who are willing to listen to the concerns of the Rainbow Coalition.”

Another traditionally Democratic constituency, Jewish voters, opted for Mondale by 65% to 35%, and Hispanics sided with him by 69% to 31%. Mondale also picked up three-quarters of those who had voted for Independent John Anderson in 1980. Union members, who once marched as a Democratic phalanx, split almost evenly. Reagan’s 47% support among union households represented a 5-point improvement over his 1980 total.

The gender gap? Women chose Reagan over Mondale by 55% to 45%, while men went for the President by 64% to 36%. From the beginning, Mondale’s weakest support was among white males. “The problem was leadership,” says Edward Reilly, a Boston-based pollster who did extensive surveys for Mondale. “Mondale became the candidate who kowtowed to special interests. Men thought he was saying to them, ‘I’m going to take something away from you, white males, and give it to someone else.’ ”

Geraldine Ferraro appears to have hurt Mondale at the polls more than she helped him, even with women. Overall, 16% of those polled by NBC said they were more likely to vote Democratic because of her, while 26% said they were less likely; the rest said she made no difference. Among women, 24% said her presence on the ticket made them less likely to vote Democratic, 19% more likely. Roman Catholics chose Reagan by 56% to 44%; in 1980, Reagan took the Catholic vote by only 47% to 43%. Republican strategists believe Ferraro, a Catholic, lost votes by tangling with the Catholic bishops over abortion.

The more voters earned, the more likely they were to vote for Reagan, according to ABC’s exit polls. Only among the very poor did Mondale win big. Those earning less than $5,000 a year chose the Democrat by 69% to 31%, while those in the $5,000-to-$10,000 range supported Mondale 53% to 46%. Voters earning between $10,000 and $20,000 went for Reagan by 52% to 48%, and those who made more than $50,000 annually gave him a lopsided 68% to 32%.

Americans have always voted their pocketbooks, and this election was no exception. A full 49% said they were better off today than they were four years ago; not surprisingly, 84% of those voters went for Reagan. Only 20% said they were worse off, and 85% of them voted for Mondale. “People see things around them are better, and they give Reagan credit for it,” says Pollster Wirthlin.

One of Mondale’s first moves was to level with voters and tell them that if elected, he would raise taxes to cut the deficit. His candor cost him. About a quarter of voters cited the potential of a tax increase as their reason for voting against Mondale. Interestingly, 55% said that the next President will probably have to raise taxes, but 43% of them voted for Reagan anyway, even though he has pledged not to seek a tax hike. The only issue that seems to have cut against Reagan was military spending. One in five voters cited it as the main factor influencing their votes, and 61% of those voted for Mondale.

Leadership was the determining issue for 28% of voters, and 83% of them chose Reagan. Asked what they disliked most about Mondale, more Reagan voters (40%) cited his being a “weak leader” than any other factor. Asked what they liked about Mondale, voters more often cited “fairness” (48%) than any other quality.

The Democrats had counted on a massive turnout to propel Mondale into the White House. Early signs indicated that the turnout actually dropped slightly, continuing a 24-year trend. And despite the well-publicized registration efforts of Democrats, new voters went overwhelmingly for Reagan by 61% to 39%.

The scope of Reagan’s support among all groups and regions is profoundly disquieting to Democrats. It could in fact be the death knell for the Democratic majority forged during the New Deal. But does it herald a new era of Republican dominance? Even though 38% of the electorate still call themselves Democrats, the exit polls did show an increase in the percentage of voters identifying themselves as Republicans, from 27% in 1980 to 32% in this election. Perhaps more important, more of those under 24 now use the Republican than the Democratic label.

Many voters were clearly casting their ballots for Ronald Reagan the man, not for the Republican Party. Said Vincent Rakowitz, 65, a retired brewery worker from San Antonio: “He really isn’t like a Republican. He’s more like an American, which is what we really need.” The real message of Tuesday’s vote—particularly from young voters who hold the key to future elections—may be that no political party can count on any group’s automatic allegiance any more. A candidate with national appeal can win an election without catering to the interests of individual voting blocs. “Reagan does not have to target a set of issues for blue-collar workers, a program for Hispanics or women,” says Pollster Wirthlin. “He appeals to all Americans.” —By Evan Thomas. Reported by Joseph N. Boyce/Atlanta and John E. Yang/ Washington, with other bureaus