INTERNATIONAL: Security

Mr. Chamberlain, M. Briand and Herr Stresemann, respectively the Foreign Ministers of Britain, France and Germany, set out last week with a host of lesser diplomats for the little village of Locarno, Switzerland, to try to negotiate a security pact which has as its essence the definite guaranteeing of the peace of the Rhineland. Their chances of success and the form which the fruits of their negotiations would take were contrarily predicted as follows:

Optimists declared that as a minimum of accomplishment a pact would be signed between Britain, France, Belgium and Germany, which would achieve the following results: 1) Guarantee mutually the peace and status quo of the Rhine frontier; 2) Bring Germany at once into the League of Nations, with the rights and obligations of a member state; Force Germany to make arbitration treaties between herself and the Allied powers; as well as treaties mutually guaranteeing her western frontiers with Poland and Czecho-Slovakia, and providing for arbitration in that section also.

Pessimists declared that the conference may well prove a mere official pool of ideas, out of which a basis for the drafting of subsequent treaties at subsequent conferences may or may not arise. They made the following observations: 1) Germany, early last week, attempted to inject a denial of her War guilt and a request for the evacuation of Cologne by the Allies into her acceptance of the Allied invitation to Locarno. She was promptly squelched by diplomatic reprimands from Allies, and is coming to the conference anyway. But, Stresemann should insist on introducing either of these matters at the conference, matters might go to smash on that alone*2) Although Germany is apparently not heeding Russia’s menacing suggestions that she had best keep away from a Locarno pact (see RUSSIA) , she cannot but be . influenced by so powerful a neighbor and may be able to play off the Russian threat as a reason for acceding to some or all of the demands of the Allies; 3) Previous conferences have failed; those at Genoa, Cannes and The Hague broke up, and the Lausanne conference was carried through to the dissatisfaction of nearly all concerned.

*The Treaty of Versailles explicitly saddles Germany with the necessity of making restitution for the destruction i wrought during the War because she was guilty of starting it. The whole structure of reparations has been said to rest upon this point.