Japan: Dark Day for the Shadow Shogun

“Guilty, “say the judges, but Tanaka refuses to step down

The trial had plodded on for so long that when the verdict finally arrived last week, the Japanese paid almost as much attention to it as they would have to the real Judgment Day. But then, the seven-year court battle did star Kakuei Tanaka, the former Prime Minister who still reigns as the country’s shrewdest powerbroker. As the dark blue Chrysler sedan wheeled Tanaka from his palatine compound on the fringes of Tokyo to the courthouse downtown, a swarm of 17 helicopters loaded with TV cameras and newsmen followed along overhead. Arriving at the Tokyo District Court, Tanaka faced a jostling battalion of some 1,500 reporters, photographers and television crews. He was caught in a sudden shower of camera flashes and responded by giving his customary wave, bringing his right hand smartly up to his forehead, and marching inside. The streets of Tokyo and other major cities emptied as people hurried to their homes and offices to hear the decision on radio and TV.

During the two hours that presiding Judge Mitsunori Okada took to explain the ruling, a fidgety Tanaka gazed up at the ceiling, squinted down at his watch, folded and unfolded his ubiquitous paper fan. When Okada finally issued the verdict, Tanaka listened with his eyes closed. The three-judge panel found Tanaka guilty of having accepted $2 million in bribes from the Lockheed Corp. during the early 1970s in return for persuading Japan’s largest domestic airline, All Nippon Airways, to buy the company’s TriStar jets. He was sentenced to four years in prison and fined $2 million, the amount of the bribe.* At one particularly somber moment, Judge Okada looked directly at the former Prime Minister and sadly noted that his actions had brought “irreparable damage to the public trust in politics.”

Tanaka’s lawyers posted bail of $1.2 million and then, after nearly five hours before the judge, their illustrious client returned home. But Tanaka’s day in court was not over. His lawyers immediately filed an appeal to the Tokyo High Court; if he is found guilty there, Tanaka can still bring his case to the country’s Supreme Court. The entire appeals process could take ten years; meanwhile, Tanaka, 65, will remain free on bail.

Whether Tanaka will be forced to loosen his political hold on the country is another matter. Elected Prime Minister in 1972, he resigned two years later when a Japanese magazine reported that he had set up a web of fake firms to hide shady financial dealings. Two years later, an official probe led to the Lockheed bribery charges and Tanaka’s subsequent arrest. Throughout his travails, however, Tanaka always retained his seat in the Diet, which he first won in 1947. More important, he still controls the largest faction within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party; of the 422 L.D.P. members in the 763-seat Diet, 119 consider Tanaka their leader. He has played a pivotal role in choosing his three successors, including the current Prime Minister, Yasuhiro Nakasone. Tanaka’s influence remains so pervasive that his countrymen have dubbed him the Shadow Shogun.

The verdict pushed Tanaka out of the shadows and into the harsh limelight. Opposition leaders ranging from the moderate Komeito (Clean Government Party) to the Communists demanded that he resign his Diet seat. Masashi Ishibashi, the newly elected chairman of the Socialists, the largest opposition party, declared that if the former Prime Minister did not relinquish his seat, the opposition would jointly introduce a resolution calling for his ouster. Said Junya Yano, secretary-general of Komeito, with a good deal of hyperbole: “Never before has the life of democracy in Japan seemed so endangered.”

That partisan sentiment seems to reflect the public mood. In a poll conducted earlier this month by Yomiuri, Japan’s largest daily newspaper, 73% said that Tanaka should resign if found guilty. More serious for Tanaka, a majority of L.D.P. supporters (68%) gave the same answer. On the night of the verdict, some 170,000 demonstrators gathered at 300 rallies across the country to demand Tanaka’s resignation. In a rare show of unanimity, the country’s five biggest newspapers all published editorials calling on Tanaka to give up his seat.

Prime Minister Nakasone was understandably circumspect about the verdict. Since his faction is only the fourth largest in the L.D.P, Nakasone still depends on Tanaka’s good will. Other L.D.P. chieftains, however, voiced concern, raising the possibility that the coalition might unravel over Tanaka’s intractability. Observed former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, head of the L.D.P.’s third largest group: “The weight of the verdict meanings is heavy indeed.” Translation: Tanaka should go.

When the L.D.P. refused to allow a resolution to be introduced calling for Tanaka’s resignation, opposition members boycotted all Diet sessions. As a result, an administrative reform bill, which would slim down the bureaucracy and is the Diet’s key piece of legislation during the current session, was not attended to. Unless the stalemate is broken, Nakasone will have no choice but to dissolve the lower house of the Diet, perhaps as early as November, and call for new elections. That might not be bad for the Prime Minister: since May, his popularity has climbed from 38% to 45%. Nevertheless, L.D.P. leaders fear that if Tanaka does not give up his seat, the ruling coalition could lose some 20 seats, which would reduce its majority to ten seats.

No matter how much the political tumult grows in the next few weeks, Tanaka is determined not to retreat. His supporters correctly point out that legally he has the right to keep his Diet seat until all appeals are exhausted. Vowed the former Prime Minister: “I will carry out my duties as a member of parliament.” Tanaka’s constituents, whom he has coddled for decades with favors and gifts, continue to swear their undying allegiance to him. If Tanaka decides to run in new elections, he is virtually certain to win his lower-house seat for the 15th consecutive time. No matter what happens, he will still wield considerable power within the L.D.P The guilty verdict last week only highlighted that truth. When Tanaka arrived home after his long day in court, he received visitors: 80 members of his L.D.P. faction, cheering and applauding Tanaka-san.

* Four codefendants, including Tanaka’s former secretary, were also found guilty and sentenced to prison terms ranging from one to 21A years.