WEST GERMANY: E Pluribus Duo

Before the time of Otto von Bismarck, Germany was not much more than a geographical expression—a sprawling, warring collection of states, duchies and feudal enclaves where the Hessians. Thuringians and Bavarians fought among themselves but mostly against the Prussians. Under Bismarck the Prussians won, and the Iron Chancellor set up the German Reich that lasted until the defeat in World War I. Germany’s first real experiment with democracy was the Weimar Republic of the 1920s. But despite the efforts of men of vision like Friedrich Ebert and Gustav Stresemann. German democracy was splintered from the start by regionalism, factionalism, and, above all, by a rain-forest proliferation of political parties. Then came Hitler.

Last week, almost a quarter of a century since the German Reichstag and the Weimar Republic went up in flames together, Germany’s second experiment in democracy was in the full flower of a free election. Though incumbent Chancellor Konrad Adenauer still seemed a shoo-in in a generally stodgy campaign (TIME, Sept. 2), the most significant fact about it was that the country seems directly and unmistakably headed for a two-party system. The two parties: Adenauer’s Christian Democrats and the Socialists of Erich Ollenhauer.

Declining Fringes. In the first postwar German elections of 1949, a total of 58 parties competed, ranging in political complexion from Communist to extreme neo-Nazi nationalists. The Communists got only 5.7% of the vote. And though sensational journalists have tried to inflate every two-pfennig crackpot into a new Hitler. German voters have steadfastly rejected neo-Nazis. In 1953 the number of parties campaigning nationally was down to twelve. Last week, though there were 14 parties in the lists, the only ones still in the race—and far behind the two leaders—were the right-wing Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) of ailing, conservative Reinhold Maier, and the Deutsche Partei of Heinrich Hellwege, Minister President of Lower Saxony.

Maier, so ill these days that he has to hold his beer mug in both shaky hands, lost much of his following last year when the Free Democrats split and Maier’s wing left the Adenauer coalition. His campaign is tired and spiritless, and Adenauer campaign strategists doubt that Maier and his Free Democrats will even poll the necessary 5% of the total ballot to stay on the rolls. His chief issue is that an Adenauer victory would make twelve Adenauer years in power and pave the way for a one-party state; it is not necessarily a bad issue, but Maier does not look the part of an appealing alternate choice.

As for the Deutsche Partei (which supports the Adenauer foreign policy but differs domestically), its best hope is to provide Adenauer with enough additional votes to give him an absolute majority in the Bundestag, and thus to have some bargaining power as a coalition partner.

Satisfied Refugees. Far out on the fringes, and almost forgotten, is the once-powerful GB/BHE (Refugee Party), headed by Deputy Minister President of Lower Saxony Friedrich von Kessel. At one time it spoke militantly in the name of more than 11 million refugees and expellees who since the war have emigrated from the East. Though the refugees threatened to be a continuous source of irredentist disgruntlement, most have found jobs in prospering West Germany and have long since forgotten that they are refugees. Deep in refugee country last week, Campaigner Adenauer said: “We can have reunification on Communist terms, or we can have it in the way that seems wisest to me—through solid loyalty to NATO and the United States. There is no easy, quick way, and we will not experiment with reckless attempts to solve the problem.” His refugee audience cheered him.