BRAZIL: The Big Race

Men and women all over Brazil observed a minute of solemn silence one day last week. It was the first anniversary of the dramatic morning on which President Getulio Vargas, confronted with a military demand for his resignation, put a pistol to his heart and committed suicide. With parades and mass meetings banned by the police, the day was quiet. The mourners who gathered around the flower-ringed bronze bust of Vargas in Rio’s Florian Square seemed subdued and voiceless.

Scary predictions that the anniversary would bring violence followed by a mili tary coup proved to be mere talk. Time and again since Vargas’ death, rumors of an impending takeover by the armed forces have buzzed about Rio. But Brazilian public opinion is so overwhelmingly anti-coup that it may well deter the restless generals and colonels from intervening in the presidential election scheduled for Oct. 3.

Builder, Manager, Fighter. With Vargas’ interim successor, President Joāo Café Filho, barred by the constitution from succeeding himself, the voters of Brazil have three main presidential candidates to choose from:

— Juscelino Kubitschek, 54, peppery ex-governor of inland Minas Gerais, candidate of the Social Democrats and the Vargas-created Labor Party. Worth many a vote to Kubitschek is his claim to be the political heir of Vargas, whose name is still magic among down-at-heel Brazilians. After first denouncing Kubitschek, Brazil’s outlawed but vote-swinging Communist Party recently made an opportunistic switch and endorsed him. But he can hardly be called a pink, much less a Red. In fact, he fits into no ideological pigeonhole, but campaigns as a man of action who promises to build, build, build. His slogan: “Power, Transportation and Food.”

— Adhemar (“Brazil Needs a Manager”) de Barros, 54, rich, flimflamboyant ex-governor of booming São Paulo, self-chosen candidate of his Social Progressive Party. Adhemar, as he is called all over the country, shows even less political philosophy than Kubitschek. Favored by his fellow big businessmen and detested by the intellectuals, Adhemar has nevertheless captivated many a working man by promising to make “Brazil, Inc.” prosperous. “I doubled my inheritance,” he says in a gross understatement, “and I can do the same for Brazil.”

— General Juarez (“Fight the Thieves and Hoodwinkers of the People”) Távora, 56, favorite of army officers and intellectuals. Table-thumping Távora has an odd assortment of parties behind him: the conservative National Democratic Union, the anticlerical Socialists and the staunchly Roman Catholic Christian Democrats.*

Doctors & Actors. Brainy General Távora would undoubtedly win the presidency if voters were counted only in the northeast, where he appeals both as a native son (born in the state of Ceará) and as a man of principle and piety (his cousin is the auxiliary bishop of Rio). Outside the northeast, Távora has apparently failed to capture much working-class support, despite 1) his promise to impose profit sharing on employers and 2) campaign help from one of Brazil’s most gifted demagogues, São Paulo Governor Janio Quadros, who took a leave of absence to stump for Távora.

Outdoing Távora in the run for the big labor vote are both Kubitschek and Adhemar. The two ex-governors have a lot in common. Both started as physicians; both are talented platform actors. Both can point to gubernatorial records as energetic builders. Adhemar is the more spellbinding orator, but he must carry the extra weight of being a man who got remarkably rich in office.

Generals & Colonels. Candidate Kubitschek got off to an early start. Months before his party nominated him, he fitted up a touring headquarters in a DC-3, set out on a 50,000-mile campaign trip. Backed by the two biggest of Brazil’s twelve registered parties, he has more organized vote-getting support than either Barros or Távora, plus the appeal of Getulio Vargas’ name.

The generals and colonels who risked conscience and career to topple the erratic Vargas regime choke at the thought that a man avowedly linked to Vargas & Co. might be the next President of Brazil. But the current guesstimates of Brazil’s professional politicos and analysts are that some 10 million Brazilians will go to the polls, and that the vote for top candidates might run: Kubitschek 3,600,000; Távora 3,100,000; Barros 2,800,000. The pros, in true forecasting tradition, hasten to point out that anything could happen in a race that close, with four weeks to go.

* Also in the race is a candidate who has no chance of winning but who could conceivably influence the outcome by bowing out and tossing his support to Távora. The sure loser, running under the banner of his own right-wing Party of Popular Representation: Plinio (“This is the Man”) Salgado, 54, founder of Brazil’s prewar fascist-type Greenshirts.