THE CAMPAIGN: Battle for the Senate

The political campaign which had the professionals talking was the battle for control of the Senate. A shift of only four seats would hand the upper chamber back to the Democrats. And it was just possible—such was the distribution of the 32 seats at stake*—that the shift might take place.

Moody Mystic. An example of the bad news filtering into Republican headquarters came from Minnesota, where Minneapolis Tribune polls showed moody Senator Joe Ball lagging 12 points behind his Democratic opponent, Minneapolis’ glib, gregarious Mayor Hubert Humphrey Jr. Plugging away like a tired messiah, obviously uncomfortable at grass-roots campaigning, gangling Joe Ball was fighting for his political life.

The reasons were not hard to find. In the years when Humphrey was building a reputation as a crack executive, a friend of labor, a staunch anti-Communist liberal, Joe Ball had seemed perversely determined to undercut his own earlier supporters. He had lost whatever labor backing he had once had by heading the get-tough-with-labor wing in the Taft-Hartley debates. He had baffled the farmers by plying them with abstruse economic theories. He had alienated many a Republican regular by jumping party lines to vote for Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.

Only a Landslide. In traditionally Republican Iowa, the story was much the same. Aging, ailing Senator George Wilson, handicapped by a mouth operation which had cost him his lower teeth, was losing ground fast to the Democrats’ ex-Senator Guy Gillette. In a year when Iowans had already shown their dissatisfaction with the ins by dumping Republican Governor Robert Blue (TIME, June 21), it looked as though Guy Gillette, who has’ always had a big following in both parties, could be stopped only by a thundering Dewey landslide.

Other states where Republicans might lose:

OKLAHOMA. Despite the best-organized, best-financed campaign in years, Congressman Ross Rizley was conceded little chance to defeat the Democrats’ wealthy ex-Governor Bob Kerr for the seat vacated by ancient Senator Ed Moore. Backed by labor and a strong Democratic tradition, Bob Kerr cried: “Rizley is a reactionary, standpat, Roosevelt-hating, Ed Moore and Bob Taft Republican.”

WEST VIRGINIA. Republican Chapman Revercomb had surprised even himself in 1942 by edging out demagogic, 73-year-old Matt Neely, West Virginia’s one-man office-holding machine (five times Congressman, thrice Senator, once governor). This time there was less likely to be a surprise. Tub-thumping Matt Neely reminded his good friends the miners of Revercomb’s Taft-Hartley vote, reminded Jews and Catholics that Revercomb had refused Tom Dewey’s personal plea to broaden provisions of the D.P. bill.

WYOMING. The edge last week lay with Democratic Governor Lester Hunt. A friendly, fast-traveling campaigner, he was winning friends among the coal miners and oil workers by plumping for repeal of the Taft-Hartley law, winning friends among the sheepmen and cattlemen by promising more reclamation projects. It was the toughest kind of competition for dignified, stiff-necked Senator Edward Robertson, who had never starred at the backslapping, baby-kissing game.

KENTUCKY. The Republicans’ able Senator John Sherman Cooper got a big break when Democrats picked, as his opponent, the blue grass country’s enormous (300 Ibs.), convivial Representative Virgil Chapman, great friend of the tobacco growers and no friend of labor. But Cooper had to buck Kentucky’s normal inclination to go Democratic.

Though they had to concede the possibility of losing all these contests, Republicans could see few chances of taking over any Democratic seats. Their best hope was in Montana, where millionaire New Dealer Jim Murray had won by a skimpy 1,212-vote margin in 1942, and could very easily be beaten this time by politically unknown Attorney Tom J. (for Thomas Jefferson) Davis.

There were some other longer shots. There was a chance—but just a chance-to knock off that veteran isolationist Ed Johnson in Colorado. In New Mexico, Pat Hurley was running 50-50 with ex-Secretary of Agriculture Clint Anderson. And some optimistic Republicans thought that ex-National Chairman Carroll Reece might upset smart, liberal Representative Estes Kefauver in Tennessee.

In the long run it all depended on Tom Dewey. If he piled up a big enough vote in the crucial states, even the shakiest Republican Senators might ride in on his coattails. In states where Dewey would have a close fight on his own hands, the Republicans seemed almost sure to lose some nip & tuck Senate races.

*: Not including one ticketed for Louisiana’s Russell Long (TIME, Sept. 13), who will fill the unexpired term of the late Senator John H. Overton.