Nation: HOW THE STATES WILL GO

A state-by-state presidential countdown, as reported by TIME correspondents ten days before election.

Alabama (10 electoral votes): Lyndon Johnson’s name is not even on the ballot. A cinch for Goldwater.

Alaska (3): The state’s economy is based on federal spending, and Alaskans are banking on help from Washington to rebuild after last March’s earthquake. Given Goldwater’s dim view of big federal spending, a Johnson victory.

Arizona (5): Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 325,000 to 180,000, and Goldwater will need help from a strong state ticket to carry his own state.

Arkansas (6): The state G.O.P. organization is run by Gubernatorial Candidate Winthrop Rockefeller, who scrupulously avoids mentioning Barry’s name in public. There is strong segregationist sentiment, but Johnson is narrowly favored.

California (40): Despite saturation TV exposure and hordes of tireless volunteer workers, polls show that Goldwater is way behind. Democrats have signed up seven new voters for every three newly-registered Republicans, now hold a 3-to-2 lead in total registration. For Lyndon.

Colorado (6): This was solid Goldwater country until the campaign began in earnest. Then a split in the state G.O.P. and Barry’s speeches on social security and nuclear control softened it up for Johnson, who now leads.

Connecticut (8): A landslide for Johnson.

Delaware (3): Easily Lyndon’s.

District of Columbia (3): With a 50% Negro vote, Johnson is an overwhelming favorite to win when Washington residents cast their first presidential ballot.

Florida (14): Goldwater looked like an easy winner. Then he criticized social security in a state full of retired people, derided the moon race despite heavy U.S. space-spending in Florida. Democratic Senator Spessard Holland, up for reelection, is working hard for Johnson. That, plus a 283,000 Negro registration, up 115,000 from 1960, should give L.B.J. a slim lead.

Georgia (12): The Jenkins case cut hard in Georgia. Still, the state Democratic organization has performed well for Johnson, and Georgia has never failed to go Democratic. Unless too many apathetic voters stay home, Johnson should eke out a win.

Hawaii (4): A tidal wave for L.B.J.

Idako (4): The G.O.P. is split, and a great deal of normally Republican business and newspaper support has come to Johnson, who has a slight edge.

Illinois (26): Goldwater named Illinois as a state he had to have “to win this thing,” but his campaign, hurt by his stances on farm supports and nuclear control, has steadily deteriorated, and some observers now place Johnson’s margin at more than 500,000, which could spell disaster for Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Charles Percy.

Indiana (13): This is Peggy Goldwater’s home state, and it is usually staunchly Republican in presidential elections. But Goldwater, hindered by a sparkless G.O.P. organization and by his own campaign, now seems to be trailing in a tight race.

Iowa (9): Farmers fear Goldwater’s farm policy; old folks don’t like his views on social security. Johnson is well ahead.

Kansas (7): Another Republican stronghold now leaning to Lyndon.

Kentucky (9): Civil rights is the big issue, and a heavy backlash vote could throw it to Barry. But Goldwater’s TVA stand hurts him in western Kentucky, and Johnson’s anti-poverty program is popular, giving Lyndon a minuscule lead.

Louisiana (10): Barry has been slipping, but the big segregationist vote north of New Orleans should put him over.

Maine (4): The Jenkins case could still hurt Johnson. But Lyndon holds a meager lead, thanks to popular Democratic Senator Edmund Muskie’s reelection campaign and Republican Senator Margaret Chase Smith’s tepid backing of Barry.

Maryland (10): An inept campaign and bitter animosity from strong minority groups make Barry’s cause hopeless.

Massachusetts (14): For Lyndon.

Michigan (21): Such diverse types as Republican Henry Ford II, Democrat Walter Reuther, and Independent Jimmy Hoffa are for Lyndon. G.O.P. Governor George Romney ignores Goldwater whenever he can. Backlash among the state’s powerful Polish bloc might have helped Goldwater, but he lost the bloc this month when he denounced “minority pressure groups.” Easy win for Johnson.

Minnesota (10): Even without Hubert Humphrey, all the way with L.B.J.

Mississippi (7): Barry’s anti-civil rights vote makes him an all but certain winner.

Missouri (12): Kennedy carried the state by just under 10,000 votes in 1960. Johnson will do much better.

Montana (4): Labor is big for Lyndon, and Barry’s federal budget-cutting promises have soured many in Montana, where U.S. cash for military payrolls and developing natural resources is an economic cornerstone. L.B.J.

Nebraska (5): Republican Nebraska gave Nixon his biggest margin (62.1%) in 1960, but registration figures indicate Johnson will win Douglas County (Omaha) by 20,000, hold on in the rest of the state. A Nixon speaking trip last week helped Goldwater, but probably not enough.

Nevada (3): Lyndon is odds-on with the smart money.

New Hampshire (4): Republicans outnumber Democrats 5 to 3, but because of his statements on social security, Barry canceled out much of that advantage. Johnson, riding the coattails of popular Democratic Governor John King, rates a fragile favorite.

New Jersey (17): A big win for Johnson.

New Mexico (4): Texas Neighbor Johnson over Arizona Neighbor Goldwater.

New York (43): State Republican candidates are running away from Goldwater, not with him. Lyndon by a million, and perhaps much more.

Nortk Carolina (13): Goldwater’s farm views helped kill his early lead. Johnson is a slight favorite.

Nortk Dakota (4): The G.O.P. is bitterly split over Goldwater. Johnson, in a close one.

Okio (26): Republican Chairman Ray Bliss has a strong machine working for Goldwater, while the Democratic organization is woefully weak. But not even the presence of young Bob Taft on the Republican ticket will prevent Johnson from carrying Ohio comfortably.

Oklakoma (8): Democrats are united and working hard for Johnson. Oklahomans are skittish about Barry and the bomb and-shades of 1960-about Bill Miller’s Catholicism. Goldwater would have to win big in Tulsa to have a chance; indications are he is merely leading there. For Johnson.

Oregon (6): With only cool campaign support from Republican Governor Mark Hatfield, keynote speaker at the G.O.P. convention, Goldwater lags behind Lyndon.

Pennsylvania (29): Republican Governor Bill Scranton is loyally working for Goldwater, but concentrates most of his energy on retaining G.O.P. control of the legislature. Voter apathy could diminish Johnson’s total, but Goldwater isn’t even close.

Rkode Island (4): A sweeping A.F.L.-C.I.O. get-out-the-vote drive will help Johnson carry Rhode Island easily.

Soutk Carolina (8): Barry’s farm views hurt him almost as much as his civil rights view helps. But hard-working Republicans are likely to get out a higher percentage of voters than the Democrats. Goldwater by an inch.

Soutk Dakota (4): This is a strongly Republican state, the Jenkins case has hurt Johnson, and Republican Senator Karl Mundt is going all out for Goldwater. But polls show Johnson with 56% of the votes, and he will probably win.

Tennessee (11): TVA is not for sale. Johnson comfortably.

Texas (25): The L.B.J. brand won’t rub off. Indelibly Johnson.

Utak (4): The morality issue could move some Mormons back to Barry, but Johnson is in front.

Vermont (3): The state has always voted Republican in presidential elections, and the habit may be unbreakable. But habit is about all Goldwater has going for him, and Johnson is narrowly favored.

Virginia (12): As usual, Democratic Senator Harry Byrd is sitting this one out. Abolition of the poll tax has resulted in nearly 100,000 new names being added to the registration rolls, most of them Negroes. Nearly all of them will cast their votes for Lyndon Johnson, making him a precarious favorite.

Waskington (9): Buoyed a bit by the coattails of attractive G.O.P. Gubernatorial Candidate Daniel Evans and favored by normally Democratic wheat farmers who dislike federal farm controls, Goldwater has a chance. But most city voters, including many Republicans, like Lyndon, and he is ahead.

West Virginia (7): The New Deal was ideal 30 years ago, and Lyndon’s deal sounds just as good. Big for L.B.J.

Wisconsin (12): In heavily Democratic Milwaukee, registration is down, and the unpredictable backlash vote could give Goldwater a boost. Democratic Governor John Reynolds is in trouble too. But Johnson is strong in usually Republican rural areas because of Barry’s farm policy and Hubert Humphrey’s popularity. A close one, but Lyndon leads.

Wyoming (3): Barry had it sewed up when he started, but it is rapidly becoming unstitched. Still Goldwater, by the thinnest margin.

There are 538 electoral votes, and it takes 270 to win. If these findings hold firm through Nov. 3, Lyndon Johnson will beat Barry Goldwater by 495 electoral votes to 43.