Foreign News: MIDDLE EAST LOYALTIES

“Russia is now the dominant power in the Middle East,” was a phrase heard often in high places last week and echoed by pundits and editorial writers. But though the worry over Russia’s Middle East ambitions is real, a country-by-country survey shows that the Soviet Union is as yet far from dominant. The lineup:

Turkey (pop. 24,110,000). Hates and fears Russia, whether Russia is Communist or not. A secularized Mos lem state, very friendly to the U.S., Turkey is the eastern anchor of NATO. Its 500,000-man army is the area’s best. Sides with Britain over Cyprus. Turks dislike Nasser, chiefly because he opened the door to the Russians in the Middle East.

Iran (pop. 21,146,000). Like Turkey, a Moslem—but not an Arab—state. Three years ago the country was falling into anarchy after Britain’s failure to negotiate a fair Anglo-Iranian oil deal. A weepy Mossadegh (TIME, Jan. 7, 1952) tried to rule from a hospital cot, and Iran was in danger of a Communist coup. That danger is safely past. Iran’s Premier is a former ambassador to, and a good friend of, the U.S. The 37-year-old Shah now has firm control of his country, and on a recent trip to Moscow ably defended his country’s membership in the anti-Communist Baghdad Pact. Americans help train the army, advise many government departments. Iran usually sides with the Arabs, but disliked Nasser’s seizure of the Suez Canal Company.

Iraq (pop. 5,200,000) is the only Arab member of the anti-Communist Baghdad Pact. Egypt’s chief rival for Arab leadership, Iraq was until recently counted a British preserve. Tough old Nuri es-Said, Iraq’s strongman, is Britain’s best Arab friend in the area, but under pressure of nationalists 1) announced publicly, after the Suez invasion, that Iraq will boycott all Baghdad Pact meetings attended by Britain, 2) told the U.S. privately that if he is to survive he must disengage from the British. Rich oil reserves, well spent on long-range development programs, give Iraq a good prospect of stability after Nuri.

Lebanon (pop. 1,425,000). Smallest Arab country, officially half Christian and half Moslem, the cultural and commercial center of the Arab Levant. Pro-U.S., and less hostile to Israel than any other neighboring state, Lebanon alone among the Arabs has so far refused to break diplomatic relations with Britain or France.

Saudi Arabia (pop. 7,000,000). King Saud, world’s most absolute ruler, is strongly antiCommunist. He is pro-U.S., relying for nearly 90% of his revenues on oil from the U.S.-owned Arabian American Oil Co.’s fields. A Nasser ally, he has fought with British over control of neighboring oil sheikdoms. Saud fears that recently Nasser has gone too far, thinks his nationalizing the canal has endangered the King’s oil profits. Violently anti-Israeli, Saud is obviously disturbed by Egypt’s poor military performance against Israel, also dislikes Nasser’s playing with the Russians.

Israel (pop. 1,748,000). Dependent on U.S. private and public funds for one-third of its government expenditures. At the moment France is its closest ally, linked by equal dislike of the Arabs. Israel has most stable and most democratic government in the area, a victory-flushed army probably capable of defeating all Arab nations together. Last week, having withdrawn their ambassador, the Russians sent Israel a stiff note questioning its “existence” as a state. Without formal allies, Israel now finds it necessary to stand as close as it can get to the U.S.

Egypt (pop. 22,500,000). The vast ant heap of Soviet equipment received by Nasser surprised the Israelis, the English and French. Nasser believed that he could take Russian help without becoming a prisoner of the Communists, was obviously too cocksure. But signs persist that he is still nervous about becoming too dependent on the Russians.

Syria (pop. 3,806,000). One state where the Russians are out ahead. Known as the “running sore of the Middle East,” Syria is the most Communist-infiltrated state in the Middle East. Likeliest site of a Russian base in the area, already stocked, according to the British, with $56 million worth of Soviet arms. President Shukri el Kuwatly, just back from a big Moscow welcome, bows to pressure of young leftist army elements led by a Commie-lining security chief. Nasser’s closest ally, Syria broke off diplomatic relations with Britain and France.

Jordan (pop. 1,500,000, one-third Palestinian refugees). Has broken off relations with France, and London has announced “temporary withdrawal” of its military mission, foreshadowing the end of the $25 million British subsidy. Its Harrow-educated King Hussein, 21, is pro-British; its newly elected parliament is rabidly nationalist and leftist; its youthful, pro-Nasser army boss made a military pact with Egypt and Syria just before the invasion of Egypt. But the Arab Legion, now called the Jordanian army, is no longer the trim fighting force British commanders once made of it. Chaotic Jordan may turn out to be the next land fought over. Today, it is anybody’s pigeon (except Britain’s).