Religion: PAPAL POSSIBILITIES

HE who enters the conclave Pope comes out cardinal,” holds an old Roman proverb, indicating that predictions are as risky in papal elections as in any other. At the conclave which meets in the Vatican Oct. 25, several questions are likely to arise:

1) Italian v. non-Italian Pope. Under Pius XII’s reign, for the first time in 500 years, non-Italian cardinals have come to outnumber the Italians, 37 to 18, but it is still considered probable that the next Pope will be Italian. The last non-Italian Pope was a Dutchman, Adrian VI, 1522-23.

2) Political v. pastoral Pope. In Vatican history the two types have often alternated, and since Pius XII was a diplomat who never had a parish of his own, there may be pressure for a pastoral candidate. This may be offset by the desire of the Vatican’s Curia cardinals to keep tight central control.

3) Compromise candidate. In case of a deadlock, the conclave may decide on an aged cardinal whose reign might be brief, postponing a decision (of the Italian cardinals, only three are under 70, of the whole college only 21).

Among the most widely mentioned “papabile” last week:

Gregory Peter XV Cardinal Agagianian, 63, Patriarch of Cilicia of the Armenians, an Oriental rite communion of the Roman Catholic Church with headquarters near Beirut. Generally considered one of the best brains in the church, Agagianian was appointed by Pope Pius XII to succeed the late Cardinal Stritch as chief of all Catholic missions, is the church’s top expert on the Mideast and Communism. His Russian-Armenian origin, which militates against his choice, in another respect weighs in his favor: his election would greatly impress Russians and other Eastern peoples.

Giuseppe Cardinal Siri, 52, Archbishop of Genoa, once known as the “minestrone cardinal” for his soup-kitchen relief work on his city’s Communist-infested docks, is noted for his administrative talent and a belief in paternalism toward the workers. He also has a reputation for being severe and authoritarian in manner, is the youngest cardinal.

Giacomo Cardinal Lercaro, 66, Archbishop of Bologna, a sailor’s son, is a lusty, genial fighter who organized the “flying priest” squads against the Communists. Deeply concerned with social reform, he has a left-wing reputation.

Giovanni Battista Montini, 61, Archbishop of Milan, is one of the ablest men in the church, served under Pius XII as pro-Secretary of State for ten years. Shifted from the Vatican to the Milan diocese in 1954, he still wears no red hat; not for almost 600 years has a noncardinal been chosen.

Ernesto Cardinal Ruffini, 70, Archbishop of Palermo, is noted for keen interest in science, inexperience in politics, and personal courage. Once when the famed Sicilian bandit Giuliano was terrorizing the countryside near Palermo, Ruffini walked out alone into the hills and cried: “Giuliano, I am your archbishop and I forbid you to kill!”

Angelo Giuseppe Cardinal Roncalli, 77, Patriarch of Venice, is popular, devoted to charitable works, nonpolitical, lives up to his cardinal’s motto: “Obedientia et Pax.”

Alfredo Cardinal Ottaviani, 67, pro-Secretary of the Congregation of the Holy Office (the church’s guardian of dogma), is a stiff-backed expert in canon law and one of the Vatican’s more reactionary figures. He is handicapped by near-blindness in one eye.

Valeric Cardinal Valeri, 75, the Vatican’s top administrator for religious orders and an outstanding theologian.