ITALY: Poor and Reluctant

If Germany-Italy were one country and if it should attack Poland—then any amateur war-gamer would know what Britain-France must do. Britain-France must destroy Italy. Thus they would deliver a shattering wound to Germany-Italy, become masters of the Mediterranean from end to end and able to bring help to Poland and to the entire Eastern Front.

But Germany-Italy is not one country. Suppose Germany attacked Poland and Italy stayed out. Britain-France could not then beat Germany by hurting Italy, and Britain-France could not be sure of being masters of the Mediterranean because Italy would always be a potential threat. All this added up to the most curious proposition of last week: that Britain-France would be better off if Italy fought with Germany than if Italy stayed neutral.

But everything about Italy last week was curious. When the German-Soviet Pact was announced to the people, some editors elaborately explained that after all Fascism was a proletarian doctrine, so why shouldn’t it march with Russia? The newspaper of Party Secretary General Achille (“the Panther Man”) Starace called the deal “pure Machiavellianism” (much admired by Fascists) and hinted that Italy had thought it up.

After Mussolini perceived how firm the Allies were, after the Pope’s and Franklin Roosevelt’s messages had accentuated the religious issue, and after Catholic Spain’s new coolness became apparent, B. Mussolini began exchanging telephone messages with A. Hitler through the latter’s Ambassador Hans-Georg von Mackensen. The official Fascist press began to boast about fresh plums which Italy might expect from the Axis arrangement (Djibouti, Tunisia, Suez). And an honest reflection of the Anglo-French determination was at last made public. If all this added up to anything, it meant clearing the road for B. Mussolini to slow A. Hitler down—if he could—perhaps to hang back if he couldn’t.

B. Mussolini, less than any other major head-of-State in Europe, could not afford big war right now. Italy is poor. Gasoline went to 95¢ per gallon last week. Coffee above $1 per Ib. — i. e., did not exist. Italy is peace-willing (General Italo Balbo spoke for other Army men when he urged that Il Duce try to carry out President Roosevelt’s peace suggestion). And Italy was scared.

Just above Italy’s vulnerable northern plain, at his Cisalpine summer home in Santianna di Valdieri, U. S. Ambassador William Phillips found small King Vittorio Emmanuele III when he went to deliver Fisherman Franklin Roosevelt’s peace appeal last week. Personally insignificant but institutionally of as great importance to Italians as George VI is to Britons, King Vittorio Emmanuele thanked Mr. Roosevelt for his idea, promised to convey it to his Government. He had not far to go. Northward on the same train with Mr. Phillips had traveled Son-in-Law Ciano, ostensibly just to get a Collar of the Annunciata from His Majesty for his “brilliant” work as Foreign Minister. The Count also returned to Rome on Mr. Phillips’ heels, and before week’s end the deep concern of Mussolini, Ciano & Co. to delay real fighting was clearly apparent. This week talk increased about Mussolini as a catalyst to resolve the impasse.