2004 Election: How Bush Pulled It Off

HOW CLOSE WAS IT?

The red states remain rock solid for Bush, giving the President an average victory margin of almost 20 points. Kerry’s wins tend to be closer

POPULAR VOTE

Kerry 48%

Bush 51%

Nader, others: 1%

ELECTORAL VOTE

Kerry 252

Bush 274

Undecided: 12

WISCONSIN Kerry squeezed out a narrow victory with support from young and first-time voters. A majority felt the country is safer from terrorism and approved of the war in Iraq, but also said the war is going badly First-time voters: Kerry 58% Bush 41%

OHIO Even though 55% of Ohio voters said the job situation is worse today than four years ago, more felt Bush could better handle the economy. Kerry made it a close race by doing well in Cleveland Trust to handle the economy: Kerry 38% Bush 43%

PENNSYLVANIA A strong turnout in Philadelphia gave Kerry enough of a boost to overcome Bush’s 2-to-1 lead in rural areas. Kerry gained wide support from young voters but split the over-65 vote with Bush

Voters under 30: Kerry 61% Bush 39% IOWA With a lead of about 15,000 votes, Bush was on the verge of becoming the first Republican to carry Iowa since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but broken voting machines in two counties and uncounted provisional and absentee ballots delayed the official results Voters who see economy as good: Kerry 30% Bush 69% Small-city and rural voters: Kerry 46% Bush 53%

FLORIDA The scene of the election nightmare four years ago was relatively quiet this time, with President Bush scoring a solid 5-point win. Bush increased his showing among Hispanics, blacks and voters younger than 65. Turnout increased by 1.4 million over 2000 Hispanics: Kerry 44% Bush 56% Catholics: Kerry 42% Bush 57%

KERRY states

Electoral votes won

•31 New York •12 Massachusetts •10 Maryland • 4 Rhode Island • 3 Vermont •55 California •21 Pennsylvania •17 Michigan •11 Washington •10 Minnesota •10 Wisconsin • 7 Oregon • 4 New Hampshire •21 Illinois •15 New Jersey • 7 Connecticut • 4 Hawaii • 4 Maine • 3 Delaware • 3 D.C.

BUSH states

Electoral votes won

•34 Texas •11 Missouri •10 Arizona • 9 Colorado • 6 Arkansas • 5 West Virginia •15 North Carolina •15 Georgia •13 Virginia •11 Tennessee •11 Indiana • 9 Alabama • 9 Louisiana • 8 Kentucky • 8 South Carolina • 7 Oklahoma • 6 Kansas • 6 Mississippi • 5 Nebraska • 5 Utah • 4 Idaho • 3 Alaska • 3 Montana • 3 North Dakota • 3 South Dakota • 3 Wyoming •20 Ohio •27 Florida • 5 Nevada Close calls

•5 New Mexico •7 Iowa BREAKING DOWN THE NATIONAL VOTE National exit polls found that the top issue for voters was not Iraq (15%) or the economy (20%) but moral values (22%) WHERE BUSH HAD THE EDGE White males Kerry 38% Bush 61% Married women Kerry 45% Bush 54% Veterans Kerry 42% Bush 57% Once-a-week churchgoers Kerry 41% Bush 58% Those for whom terrorism was the most important issue Bush 86% Kerry 14% Those for whom moral values was the most important issue Bush 79% Kerry 18% WHERE KERRY HAD THE EDGE African Americans Kerry 89% Bush 11% Hispanics Kerry 55% Bush 42% First-time voters Kerry 54% Bush 45% Not married Kerry 59% Bush 40% Those who disapprove of the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq Bush 11% Kerry 87% Those for whom the economy/jobs was most important Bush 18% Kerry 80%

Election results are as of 1 p.m. Nov. 3. Source: AP

Voter demographics are from the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Margin of error is ±3 percentage points for national data and ±4 percentage points for state data