Speaker Foley’s Folly

To many voters in the state of Washington, Thomas Foley’s candidacy is not just unseemly — it’s downright disrespectful. In 1992, 60% of those voters gave a thumbs up to Initiative 573, a state referendum that imposes term limits on holders of state and federal offices. For Congressmen, the limit is three two-year terms over a 12-year period. Foley so vehemently disagrees with his constituents that he is not only seeking a 16th consecutive term in the House but has also filed a lawsuit challenging such limits on federal officeholders as unconstitutional. Thus far, the federal courts think Foley has a good case. Washington voters, however, may just take matters into their own hands — in the voting booths. According to polls, they are defecting in droves to George Nethercutt, 49, a Republican challenger who vows that, if elected, he — unlike the 65-year-old incumbent — will serve no more than three terms. In a particularly stinging TV ad, Nethercutt sniffs, “I would never sue my constituents to save my job.”

Foley’s prickly challenge to term limits is precisely why his 30-year lock on a House seat is now in jeopardy. “People are saying that he’s become too big for his britches and that he’s just out of touch,” says Randy Pepple, a Seattle G.O.P. consultant. Flapping hard from the lofty perch of House Speaker, Foley’s venerability is his greatest vulnerability. Nethercutt, a youngish Republican lawyer with boundless energy and a ready smile, punches out the message that Foley has succumbed to Beltway-think. “Mr. Foley is a nice man, but he personifies Congress’s reputation,” he says. Nethercutt’s point is coming through loud and clear. In the state’s open primary two weeks ago, five Republican and Democratic candidates split the vote so badly that Foley squeaked by with just 35% of the vote, his weakest showing ever. Last week there was worse news for the top House Democrat: a newly released poll shows Foley trailing Nethercutt by 14 points.

Ironically, Nethercutt’s strategy is precisely the same one that took Foley from the rainy state of Washington to the humid city of Washington in the first place. In 1964 Foley was a politically inexperienced Spokane lawyer with boundless energy and a shy smile, who set out to unseat a 22-year Republican House veteran. While the incumbent trumpeted his track record, battle scars and hard-earned seniority, Foley exploited a prevailing mood of anti- incumbency in the electorate. The upstart triumphed.

Now Foley is a pol who seems to have overstayed his welcome. Beyond the contentious issue of term limits, Foley is a highly visible spear carrier for an unpopular President. He is closely — though sometimes unfairly — identified in voters’ minds with the Administration’s controversial agenda, particularly with gun control. Through 15 terms in Congress, Foley has consistently resisted gun-control legislation. In August, however, he voted for Clinton’s crime bill, which included a ban on 19 kinds of assault weapons. As a result, Foley incurred the wrath of the National Rifle Association, which responded with a massive mailing on Nethercutt’s behalf.

Though Foley is hardly the only House Democrat on the chopping block, Republicans find the prospect of knocking down a standing House Speaker a particularly giddy prospect. The last time voters dealt an electoral defeat to a Speaker was in 1860, when William Pennington of New Jersey was bounced for his alliance with a hapless Republican Administration. When a group based in Spokane called De-Foley-Ate Congress posted notices on the Internet seeking contributions for the Nethercutt campaign, money flooded in from all over the country.

Foley refuses to see some cosmic anti-Beltway message in all this. He attributes his poor primary showing to the spirited G.O.P. contest, which made for a high Republican turnout. He also recognizes that the moderate Nethercutt is an attractive departure from the conservatives usually fielded by the state G.O.P. Ever unflappable, Foley insists, “I’m going to win this election.” That’s still a possibility, but it looks like an increasingly long shot.