Oranges, Freshly Squeezed

Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko may have overcome Russian political interference and dioxin poisoning to triumph during the 2004 orange revolution, but he’s now at risk of losing his hold on power. On April 2, Yushchenko ordered the dissolution of Ukraine’s single-chamber parliament, the Rada, to make way for early elections in late May. In response, the Rada, which is dominated by his opponents, declared the order unconstitutional, blocked funding for the new election, voted to replace the current election commission with the one that was fired for rigging the 2004 election, and referred the crisis to the Constitutional Court.

Both the instigator and probable beneficiary of the turmoil: Yushchenko’s nemesis, Viktor Yanukovych, whose 2004 defeat was hailed by the West as a victory for democracy. Ironically, Yanukovych has used all the instruments of Ukrainian politics and democracy to undo Yushchenko’s authority.

In a sense he’s had an easy time of it. Since their victory, the liberal, pro-Western orange politicians have squandered their once-enormous political momentum by squabbling and infighting. Yuliya Tymoshenko, leader of the byut party and a prime driver behind the orange revolution, initially became Yushchenko’s Prime Minister but soon fell out with him amid mutual accusations of frustrating the orange ideals.

With the orange forces badly fractured, Yanukovych has forged a remarkable comeback. The metal, coal and chemical magnate hired Paul Manafort, a veteran Washington political consultant who has advised numerous prominent U.S. Republicans, to help shape his image. Yanukovych has emphasized orange revolution failings like administration infighting, sporadic food and fuel shortages, and soaring inflation. The strategy worked: in the 2006 Rada elections, Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions came in first, carrying 32% of the vote.

The election coincided with a political reform that transferred considerable powers from the office of the President to the Rada and made the Prime Minister a Rada-nominated position. After controversial parliamentary maneuvering, Yanukovych became Prime Minister and immediately began to dismantle the President’s already diminishing powers by, for example, purging Yushchenko’s Ministers from his Cabinet. Led by his well-funded and organized party, Yanukovych’s coalition, now boasting 262 Rada votes, has been steadily stealing support from orange factions, which now control just 198 votes.

The U.S., the European Union and Russia have all called for a peaceful solution to the standoff, but its outcome will have broad implications for Ukraine’s role in world politics. Last month the U.S. Senate approved a bill providing support and funding for Ukraine’s candidacy to join nato. Moscow bitterly opposes this and has long been more friendly to the anti-nato Yanukovych. “Yushchenko sees us as a huge log that blocks his path to nato,” a Rada deputy of Yanukovych’s faction told Time. “He also knows that this log is stuffed with cash,” he added, suggesting that money enticed many of the politicians who have changed allegiance.

If Yanukovych’s coalition grows to 300, it will have the power to change the constitution and abolish the presidency, a prospect that encouraged Yushchenko to strike first and dissolve the Rada. Tensions are growing. In a mirror image of the orange fall of 2004, a tent city has rapidly formed around Kiev’s Rada and Cabinet buildings, though this time in pro-Yanukovych blue and white. These colors mix with the red banners of his communist and socialist coalition allies in Independence Square, while orange loyalists have set a defensive tent ring around the President’s office. The Crimean autonomous region in the east passed a resolution supporting Yanukovych; the Lviv region in the west voted to support Yushchenko. Defense Minister Anatoly Gritsenko, one of the two Yushchenko loyalists still in the Cabinet, pledged the armed forces’ obedience to the President; the Rada, on the other hand, controls the police. Meanwhile, all the political forces vow to abide by the court’s ruling, which is expected within days. “That might be one way out of this stalemate,” says Viktor Nebozhenko, Ukraine’s authoritative political analyst. But even the most Solomonic judgment may not be enough to repair the bitter rift between the two democratically elected branches of Ukraine’s fractured government and set the country on a clear and peaceful course.