The Last to Leave

A blue-ribbon United Nations panel assessing the condition of a still unified Yugoslavia back in 1991 called it a state in the “process of dissolution.” Well, it took 10 years of bloodshed, but the job is almost done. The original six Yugoslav republics have been whittled down to two. First Slovenia and Croatia went their own ways, then Bosnia withdrew, triggering the long siege of Sarajevo, then Macedonia managed to get out miraculously without violence. Now, with a seemingly minor election later this week in the small mountain republic of Montenegro, Serbia’s remaining partner in the incredible shrinking federation is set to leave as well. That will close the book on one of the least successful political entities of the 20th century.

The election pits the ruling party of President Milo Djukanovic, a former ally of Slobodan Milosevic who broke with the strongman in 1997, against a pro-Yugoslav opposition with close ties to the democratic leadership in Belgrade. If Djukanovic wins — and polls currently give his coalition 44% of the vote vs. 26% for his nearest rivals — he has vowed to hold a referendum on independence from Serbia as early as June. Various polls peg support for independence at between 47% and 58%, and that is likely to grow once a secessionist campaign begins. Djukanovic, 39, enjoys considerable personal authority, and his government controls much of the media.

Secession, should it take place, will likely trigger a new contest for power in Serbia between disparate members of the 18-party coalition led by Vojislav Kostunica. In the longer term, it could also encourage other breakaway groups, from ethnic Albanians in Macedonia to Croats in Bosnia.

At least it will be peaceful. Less than a year ago, threats by Djukanovic to hold a referendum raised fears of a new Balkan war. But while Yugoslav troops are still stationed in Montenegro, Kostunica affirmed this month that his government would not oppose secession — though he frankly finds it a bad idea. So does the rest of Europe, which fears the precedent in an already unstable region.

The real question about the impending split is why. As long as Milosevic was in power, Montenegrins had ample reason to distance themselves from the regime. But even with Milosevic in prison, Djukanovic insists there are good reasons to get out. One is size. Under a six-nation Yugoslav federation, Montenegro enjoyed equal status with the other republics. Today, says Djukanovic, real power sharing for the 650,000 Montenegrins is “an illusion.” He asks: “How can you have an equal partnership if one partner is 18 times larger than the other?”

Another concern in the capital Podgorica is the loss of Western aid, which under Milosevic flowed only to Montenegro but now has been diverted, in part, to Belgrade. With 40% unemployment and little in the way of industry, that assistance is critical, and Djukanovic may be betting that an independent Montenegro will be in a stronger position to get it.

Not that providers of aid are supportive of independence. Secretary of State Colin Powell refused to meet with Djukanovic when he visited Washington in January, and E.U. external relations Commissioner Chris Patten said this month: “We want to see a democratic Montenegro in a democratic and reformed Yugoslavia. We don’t agree with Djukanovic.”

Independence would probably not make much difference in daily life in Montenegro. It no longer pays taxes into the federal coffers. It has its own police force. And in 1999 it introduced Germany’s deutsche mark as its official currency. Ties with Serbia are so distant that Yugoslavia recently opened a “representative’s” office in Podgorica, like some foreign diplomatic mission. In Serbia, on the other hand, the fallout from secession will be considerable. “If Montenegro goes, Serbia would effectively become a new country,” Kostunica says. Elections might precipitate the breakup of the ruling coalition and, as President of a nonexistent Yugoslavia, Kostunica would be out of a job — though he would likely stay on, perhaps as the next Serbian President.

Absent from the debate so far is any acknowledgment of the economic harm to Montenegro of trying to go it alone at a time when Western Europe is heading in the opposite direction toward greater union. But expectations are low in the Balkans. If Yugoslavia manages to disapear without triggering more death and destruction, no one will seriously object.