Those Base-Closing Blues

First, the good news: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week recommended closing far fewer military bases than had been expected. (Despite initial estimates of a military bloated by 20% to 25% in excess capacity, the Pentagon, after factoring in the need to accommodate 70,000 soldiers returning from overseas, determined that only 5% to 10% needs trimming.) But the bad news depends, now more than ever, on where the bases are located. Rumsfeld proposed closing 33 of the Pentagon’s 318 major military bases, along with shuttering or realigning 775 smaller facilities, to save nearly $49 billion over the next 20 years. But what’s “striking” about the base-closing plan, says Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the nonpartisan Lexington Institute think tank in Arlington, Va., is “the geographical migration of the military out of the Frost Belt and into the Sun Belt.” Northern states such as Connecticut, Maine and New Jersey will lose more than 19,000 military and civilian jobs at the facilities on Rumsfeld’s hit list, while three Southern states, Georgia, Alabama and Texas, will have a net gain of 16,237 jobs.

Although Rumsfeld insists the realignments will help transform the military into a “more agile” force, with the armed services operating jointly at more bases, the shift south and west conveniently benefits the G.O.P., which dominates those regions. Even so, some red states are feeling rather blue. South Dakota’s John Thune, who defeated Senate minority leader Tom Daschle last year partly on a promise that his G.O.P. connections would protect Ellsworth Air Force Base, is livid that it is on the closing list. The Base Realignment and Closure Commission has until Sept. 8 to approve or amend Rumsfeld’s list, and Bush and Congress must accept or reject it by the end of the year. Until then, Thune has vowed to lead the congressional fight to delay the closings and may vote against key White House legislation–bringing new meaning to the election-year tactic of playing to your base. –By Douglas Waller