Torrential rains, international intrigue, civil war, witchcraft — and who knows what else in the lush jungles of West Africa and Brazil — are leaving their mark on the tons of chocolate candy that Americans will consume over the holidays. As a result of hikes in the price of one of the world’s most erratic commodities, cocoa, U.S. candymakers are thinning their chocolate coatings and shaving the weight of their chocolate bars.
Earlier this month, the price of cocoa futures on the New York Cocoa Ex change hit a ten-year high of 47¢ a lb., up about 75% from June. Anyone who bought a heavily margined cocoa futures contract in June and held on to it could have made a profit of up to 600%. Anyone who went into the market earlier this month could have doubled his money.
Barely Enough. The reason for the rise is an international shortage of the basic ingredient in almost everyone’s favorite confection. Accurate reports on crop conditions in war-torn Nigeria and Ghana, where most of the cocoa grows, are almost as difficult to find as Dr. Livingstone. But everyone involved in the delicate cocoa forecasting game agrees that 1969 production will not begin to satisfy demand. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization predicts a “deficit” of 107,720 tons, measured against next year’s estimated demand of about 1,400,000 tons.
Cocoa consumption has outstripped production for three years. Huge stocks accumulated by major buyers between 1960 and 1965, when prices fell below 25¢ a lb., cushioned the blow. Low prices helped bring about a decline in plantings and general neglect of cocoa trees. Now reserves are running out. World cocoa inventories are at a nine-year low of about 245,000 tons, barely enough to satisfy three months’ demand.
Hershey Foods Corp., the largest U.S. buyer of cocoa (100,000 tons a year), has already chopped one-eighth of an ounce off its standard seven-eighths-ounce chocolate bars which cost 5¢. Hershey “Kisses” have not been cut, but are expected to cost more soon.
Switch to Substitutes. This year the U.S. will consume about 20% of the world’s cocoa production and will spend $2.7 billion on candies of all kinds. Manufacturers are doing everything they can to save on chocolate. Besides thinning it out on candy-bar coatings, they are pushing such substitutes as toasted-coconut-covered bars and hard candy. The question, of course, is whether a true chocolate-fancier will ever be happy with less than the real thing. Asking him to be would be like asking the Chocolate Soldier to switch to marzipan.
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