Defense: Top Hand at Rand

Of all the behind-the-scenes forces that have molded America’s military muscle, none have been more influential—and few more mysterious—than California’s Rand Corp., a private, nonprofit “think tank” located in a plain white building in Santa Monica. And of all the high-powered highbrows who have helped build Rand (for Research and Development), no one has been more effective than silver-haired, rough-featured Franklin R. Collbohm, 59, head of the organization since it was created under the patronage of Army Air Forces General Henry H. (“Hap”) Arnold 20 years ago.

Sinology to Space. Under the hard-boiled intelligence of Engineer Collbohm, a top War Department consultant during World War II, Rand has attracted a staff of nearly 1,200—including ranking authorities on subjects ranging from Sinology to outer space. The organization’s first report in 1946 was a carefully reasoned study that demonstrated the feasibility of employing spaceships in weather forecasting and military reconnaissance. In June 1957, Rand warned the Air Force that the Russians would orbit their first satellite around Sept. 17, 1957. Sputnik went up on Oct. 4 of that year.

Collbohm channeled 95% of Rand brainpower into pure military research. The U.S. launched a successful intercontinental ballistic-missile program after Rand men argued that hard-to-deliver bombs would be less effective than small missile-mounted nuclear warheads. When another Rand study warned that existing intermediate Russian missiles could easily destroy U.S. SAC bases overseas, the Pentagon abandoned them at a saving of $1 billion a year. Currently, Rand experts are studying counterinsurgency techniques; its teams have served in Viet Nam for five years.

Defense to Welfare. Beyond that, Collbohm-trained Rand alumni catalyzed Robert McNamara’s management revolution in the Pentagon. A Rand specialty is a sophisticated application of “systems analysis,” approaching highly complex projects by interrelating each constituent factor. In Pentagon terms, for example, it means considering an Air Force demand for planes in terms of everything from the cost to the taxpayer to the labor skills involved to the amount of aluminum available. It has proved so successful that the “Rand way of thinking” has become a major operating influence throughout the Government.

Last week Frank Collbohm, the man behind that influence, announced that he would retire at year’s end. His successor, Henry S. Rowen, 41, an M.I.T.-educated engineer-turned-economist and defense specialist, is a Rand veteran who has spent the past 51 years in Washington—first as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and currently as Assistant Director of the Bureau of the Budget. His appointment heightens speculation that Rand may focus increasingly on social problems. Though Rowen insists that Rand will continue to be a key factor in U.S. defense planning, he said last week: “There is a great need to get much better analysis done in public-policy issues. Rand can do it.”