THE CAMPAIGN: September Poll

THE CAMPAIGN September Poll

The Gallup poll last week found Dwight Eisenhower pulling ahead of Adlai Stevenson. The pollers asked voters: “If the presidential election were being held today, which political party . . . would you like to see win?” The results:

Republican 51%

Democratic 43%

Undecided 6%

This is a gain of 3% for the Republicans and a loss of 3% for the Democrats since Gallup took the first poll on the question three weeks earlier. The Republican lead, however, is not as great as the lead Gallup gave Tom Dewey at the corresponding point of the 1948 presidential campaign.

In a special analysis of war veterans’ ballots, Gallup found a slightly bigger margin for the Republicans. The veterans’ vote:

Republican 53%

Democratic 40%

Undecided 7%

Probably more significant than either of the “which party” polls were the results of the specific-issue poll reported by Gallup this week. His interviewers asked voters: “Which presidential candidate . . . do you think could handle the Korean situation best?” The results:

Eisenhower 67%

Stevenson 9%

No Difference 5%

No Opinion 19%

George Gallup continued to point out that his average error on election polls has been 3.4 percentage points. And he was careful to note that in 1948 most of the “undecided” voters finally went to the Democratic side. But even after all the rules of caution are observed, the Republicans’ 6% gain in the party poll and Eisenhower’s overwhelming margin on the vital Korean war issue are important straws in the September political wind.