THE FAR EAST: Signs of Progress

Three years ago the echoes of the Communist cannon that conquered Dienbienphu still rumbled over the vast rimland of non-Communist Asia. Flushed with victory. Mao Tse-tung in Peking and Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi boasted that the rest of Indo-China was theirs for the asking, and looked past Indo-China to Malaya, Thailand and Burma. But last week, almost three years since North Viet Nam was formally surrendered to Communism, the heady Communist visions had not materialized.

The guns of Communist China fire only fitfully these days across the Formosa Strait. Southeast Asia’s Communist guerrillas are in retreat. Red China, racked by agrarian unrest, by industrial and political upheaval, by flood and famine, has turned its attention inward. Throughout the Asian rimland there are signs—some faint, some clearly visible—that peace and order have begun to creep into the ascendant. Politically, only one nation—Indonesia —still thrashes in chaos. Economically, inflation has hurt eastern Asia less than some others; several nations, led by Japan, are surging toward prosperity.

Japan. Shocked into numbed inferiority by World War II’s defeat, the country is finally finding its feet under Premier Nobusuke Kishi, who has given Japan its strongest government since 1945. By uniting the conservative factions, Kishi decisively reduced any chance that the Socialists, who had their brief try in 1947-48, may gain power in the foreseeable future. Though Communists have infiltrated some trade unions, their influence in the country has been contained. Economically, Japan’s resurgence is comparable to West Germany’s; e.g., the gross national product has doubled since 1950.

South Korea. At 82, Syngman Rhee still holds the country under his thumb. Last year the country picked its Vice President from the opposition, suggesting progress toward a two-party system. But after two attempts on his life, Vice President John M. Chang has stayed at home under heavy personal guard, consulting with his party’s members behind barricaded walls. Though the North Korean Communists have kept building up their military strength, the South has been making something of an economic comeback with the help of about $300 million yearly in U.S. aid, but there is danger that the handout mentality is becoming endemic.

Laos. The Communist Pathet Lao, controlling two of the twelve provinces, has joined the central government, whose authority is thereby extended to all of the little jungle kingdom (pop. 1,400,000 to 2,500,000). Though not seriously alarmed as yet, U.S. officials watch anxiously as Communist troops take their place in the royal army, and a Communist Minister of Planning helps decide how U.S. funds ($43 million this year) are to be spent.

Cambodia. Prince Sihanouk, who really runs the country even when he is not officially Premier, intended originally to steer a noncommittally neutral course between East and West. He still may, but lately, possibly because the U.S. and France have been delivering their $55 million in development aid on schedule while the Chinese Communists have made good on just a fraction of the $22.9 million worth of cement, steel and textile shipments promised for 1957, his press has been outspokenly antiCommunist, and Cambodia has been voting more and more with the U.S. in the U.N.

South Viet Nam. Dynamic President Diem has created a stable regime, emerged as one of the East’s strongest statesmen. Though Saigon’s recent bombings show that Communists can still break the peace, Diem has the threat to internal security under control. With an annual per capita income of $144, Viet Nam trails only Japan, Malaya and the Philippines in the area. Diem has built 1,000 miles of roads, reclaimed thousands of acres of rice land, and opened two universities and a technical school this year. U.S. aid ($250 million this year) keeps his army in the pink and his budget in the black.

Thailand. Elections ordered by the new strongman, Marshal Sarit, were completed last week. Fellow travelers are reeling backward, deprived of the support of Pibulsonggram, whom Sarit ousted in last September’s coup. Rice is cheap and plentiful. Sarit and all major parties back Thailand’s past SEATO commitments, and prospects are that the country will continue prosperous and stable.

Indonesia. President Sukarno last week prepared to leave his revolt and dissent-torn country for a prolonged rest. Both he and the country needed it. Sukarno, in a wild bid to whip up enthusiasm for Indonesia’s claim to Dutch New Guinea, has brought the country’s economy almost to a standstill with his reckless and illegal seizures of Dutch commercial and agricultural properties. Whether the country’s well-organized Communist Party may make a bid for power, or whether it will be effectively countered by the anti-Communist officers of the army, is still in doubt.

Burma. U Nu, a true neutral in East-West affairs, has no illusions about Communists at home. His army has killed thousands of Communist insurgents in nine years’ fighting, and recently stepped-up campaigns have resulted in mass surrender of rebels. Citizens may now travel, safe from guerrilla raids, in all but the most mountainous parts of the country. Strapped for foreign exchange as a result of a slump in rice exports and now-regretted barter deals with Communist countries, Burma has lately made some gains with its economic expansion program, though it still suffers direly from severe inflation (a 200% increase in the cost of living since 1948).

Malaya. Southeast Asia’s newest independent country is politically and economically its healthiest. Conservatively governed Malaya has squelched its Communist guerrillas; surviving Communists are now taking Abdul Rahman’s amnesty offer in heartening numbers. The fact that 40% of the population is Chinese is a potential source of conflict, but both sides are currently cooperating eagerly to consolidate the new state. Tin and rubber keep Malaya in dollars.

Formosa. Though only 20% of the land is arable, the island not only feeds 9,000,000 civilians and 500,000 soldiers, but exports food as well. The U.S., which has come through with $2 billion in aid since 1951, provides the military hardware and meets half the military payroll. The press is effectively controlled, and any threat of internal subversion by the Chinese Communists is kept well in hand by the zealous (some say too zealous) security police called the Peace Preservation Corps. Stern and 70, Chiang Kai-shek rules party, army and people as firmly as ever.

The Philippines. Magsaysay is missed, but last month’s elections, returning President Garcia to office while installing the opposition Liberals’ Diosdado Macapagal as his Vice President, argue stability and democratic progress. The Communist Huks are almost extinct. Though the economy could be strong and prosperous, the Philippines are now in the throes of a crisis. Dollar reserves are down 30% since January, and President Garcia has called on Filipinos to “retrench,” asked the U.S. for a $100 million loan. Fortnight ago he sharply restricted imports and dollar credits, announced a new austerity program designed to stop the drain on foreign exchange and boost local production.