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World War, STRATEGY: Britain’s Guess

2 minute read
TIME

Having had German day bombing pretty well under control for several months, Britain last week took hope of mastering night bombers. (Her new secret defense one night last week shot down six German planes, another night two, another night two more—not many, but an improvement.) Meanwhile, not only were British night bombers at work as usual—chiefly on the submarine base at Wilhelmshaven—but British bombers continued their sporadic day raids begun fortnight ago, blasting invasion ports, airdromes in France, German coastal shipping wherever it was found.

Adequate reason for these new British efforts were estimates which the British made of German manpower and its disposition. British guessers put Germany’s mobilizable strength at 4,400,000 (35% of Germany’s man power between the ages of 18 and 40); 550,000 were estimated to be in the Luftwaffe and anti-aircraft arms; 200,000 in the Navy, 20,000 in coast artillery, 200,000 in the Gestapo, 400,000 on service as armies of occupation.

Biggest concentration of German power was thought to be in a 2,000,000-man army of defense. Frontier forces were known to be along the borders of Russia, Italy and the Balkans. More were gathered in troop pools behind a scouting screen on Europe’s west coast, lest Britain attempt a nuisance invasion of her own to upset Axis plans.

The army of attack was placed at 1,000,000, including 100,000 from the twelve Panzer divisions, 200,000 newly trained parachute and airborne troops; 700,000, including an unknown number of SS divisions, were calculated on hand for the drive across the Channel by sea.

But more interesting than numbers alone was Britain’s speculative distribution of the German Armies. Surprising was the strength to the northeast (50 divisions in Poland, four in Moravia), the relative weakness of the Balkan front (five in Rumania, 25 pooled in Austria). Most significant was the concentration along the western front: all attack troops, nearly two-thirds of Germany’s total 224 divisions massed in Norway, western Germany, the Lowlands and France. If the British had guessed right, it could mean only one thing: a full-out attack across the Channel.

. . .

The number of men in Britain’s armed forces last week reached the 3,000,000 mark. But some were still raw recruits. Others were Home Guardsmen, mostly amateurs, not fully trained.

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