--- title: Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule description: Trump has the levers to force Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure. canonical: https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/ author: Jeffrey Sonnenfeld article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2025-01-21T13:30:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:44:42.395Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule og:description: Trump has the levers to force Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure. og:url: https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65628cb429034432/6998b29ff1b08288f76ef144/trump-putin.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-US-POLITICS og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule twitter:description: Trump has the levers to force Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65628cb429034432/6998b29ff1b08288f76ef144/trump-putin.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Donald Trump Can Bring the End of Vladimir Putin’s Rule > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=61061de0-0004-47f0-a1dd-99268790e2e4&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1 [Watch (HLS stream): Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/GxXJnNk4.m3u8) (3:50)  _Published 2025-01-21. President Trump on Monday issued a barrage of executive orders, kicking off his presidency with a muscular use of power intended to signal a sharp reversal from existing policies on issues including immigration, the environment and diversity initiatives._ by [Jeffrey Sonnenfeld](https://time.com/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/) and [Steven Tian](https://time.com/author/steven-tian/) Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is the Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice at the Yale School of Management. Jan 21, 2025 1:30 PM UTC  Traditional Russian wooden nesting dolls depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are displayed for sale at a gift shop on the touristic Arbat street in downtown Moscow on Jan. 20, 2025. Traditional Russian wooden nesting dolls depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are displayed for sale at a gift shop on the touristic Arbat street in downtown Moscow on Jan. 20, 2025. Alexander Nemenov—AFP/Getty Images by [Jeffrey Sonnenfeld](https://time.com/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/) and [Steven Tian](https://time.com/author/steven-tian/) Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is the Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice at the Yale School of Management. Jan 21, 2025 1:30 PM UTC President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our [new, original economic analysis](https://yale.box.com/s/tarci24pfo7j5goyxhal8d55ss928fbe), Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure. On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his [Oval Office press conference](https://nypost.com/2025/01/20/us-news/trump-inauguration-day-2025-live-updates-from-ceremonies-performances-events/#34614719). “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.” Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture. Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter. That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness [to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts](https://time.com/7207884/ceo-business-leaders-trump/), it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just [how weak](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-moscow-sanctions-jeffrey-sonnenfeld-steven-tian-yale-2024-5) the Russian economy really is. Simply put, the Russian [economy is imploding](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/)—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been [propping him up](https://fortune.com/europe/2023/02/20/russia-economy-self-immolated-one-year-putin-invaded-ukraine-sanctions-energy-finance-europe-sonnenfeld-tian/) the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already [drawn down](https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo) Russia’s rainy day funds [by depleting](https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo) its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and [nobody is willing to fund](https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo) Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even [China is dumping](https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo), the Russian central bank has [run out](https://yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo) of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he [defunds his own expensive](https://fortune.com/europe/2023/02/20/russia-economy-self-immolated-one-year-putin-invaded-ukraine-sanctions-energy-finance-europe-sonnenfeld-tian/) war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe [finally moving away](https://www.ft.com/content/be331b8e-3a24-4941-b6d0-aa3041f789cf) from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports. Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling [at or below breakeven prices](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/06/russia-oil-price-cap-g7-sanctions/). According to [Saudi Aramco](https://www.aramco.com/-/media/images/investors/saudi-aramco-prospectus-en-051219.pdf%E2%80%9D), the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic. So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which [we estimate](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/the-russian-oil-price-cap-can-work-again) to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin [will be losing money](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/06/russia-oil-price-cap-g7-sanctions/) when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for [during his confirmation hearing](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-treasury-pick-bessent-calls-stronger-sanctions-russia-over-ukraine-war-2025-01-16/), then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled. History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so. ## Transcript First, we have a list of pardons and commutations relating to events that occurred on January 6th, 2021. Okay. And how many people have this? I think this order will apply to approximately 1500 people, sir. So this is January 6th, and these are the hostages. Approximately 1500 for a pardon. Full pardon. Full pardon or commutation. Full pardon. We have about six commutations in there where we're doing further research. Okay. Nice to see you again, sir. So this is a big one. Anything you want to explain about this? We hope they get them. We hope they come out tonight, frankly. This is a proclamation guaranteeing the state's protection against invasion based on the current crisis at the southern border. It invokes various executive powers relating to the ongoing invasion at the southern border. Sir, this is an executive order realigning the United States Refugee Admission Program to better align with American principles and American interests. This next executive order. Is about protecting America from foreign terrorists and other national security and public safety threats. Again, crisis at the border. But it goes beyond that. And it implicates other executive powers as well. Yeah. So President Trump, if the cartels are now going to be seen as foreign terror organizations, would you think about ordering U.S. special forces into Mexico to take them out? Could happen. Stranger things have happened. Can we expect Ice raids in major cities? I don't want to say when, but it's going to happen. It has to happen. Or we're not going to have a country left. This is actually an executive order designating the cartels and other organizations to be foreign terrorist organizations. That's a big one. Yes, sir. People have wanted to do this for years. So they are now designated as terrorist organizations. Foreign and. uh, Mexico probably doesn't want that. But we have to do what's right. So we paid $500 million to World Health when I was here, and I terminated it. China with 1.4 billion people. We have 350. We have. Nobody knows what we have because so many people came in illegally. But let's say we have 325. They had 1.4 billion. They were paying 39 million. We were paying 500 million. It seemed a little unfair to me. So that wasn't the reason, but I dropped out. They offered me to come back for 39 million. In theory, it should be less than that. But, you know, uh, and when Biden came back, they came back for 500 million. He knew that you could have come back for 39 million. They wanted us back so badly. So we'll see what happens. Mr. president, pretty sad, though. Think of it. China pays 39 million and we pay 500 million. And China is a bigger country. Don't you see the importance of organization like that to coordinate a global response? Sure I do, but not when you're being ripped off like we are by the world health. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/"},"headline":"Donald Trump Can Bring the End of Vladimir Putin’s Rule","datePublished":"2025-01-21T13:30:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:44:42.395Z","description":"Trump has the levers to force Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.","url":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/","keywords":["world affairs"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65628cb429034432/6998b29ff1b08288f76ef144/trump-putin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jeffrey Sonnenfeld","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/jeffrey-sonnenfeld/"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Steven Tian","jobTitle":"Contributor","url":"https://time.com/author/steven-tian/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt65628cb429034432/6998b29ff1b08288f76ef144/trump-putin.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-US-POLITICS","caption":"TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-US-POLITICS","creditText":"Alexander Nemenov—AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/","name":"Donald Trump Can Bring the End of Vladimir Putin’s Rule"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1","description":"President Trump on Monday issued a barrage of executive orders, kicking off his presidency with a muscular use of power intended to signal a sharp reversal from existing policies on issues including immigration, the environment and diversity initiatives.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/GxXJnNk4/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2025-01-21T17:58:30.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/GxXJnNk4.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/","duration":"PT3M50S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/7208695/trump-end-putin-rule/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```