COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

This year, the U.S. may get the gift of a relatively light COVID-19 holiday season.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has followed a predictable pattern over the last few years: after a fall lull, it begins to spread more widely in November, and infection rates peak in late December or early January. This year, however, has “been weird,” says Katelyn Jetelina, who writes the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter.

COVID-19 activity was minimal throughout November. And as of the week ending Dec. 7, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 virus detected in U.S. wastewater was still considered “low,” according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Levels have begun to tick upward but are still well below those of past Decembers.

Projections by Jay Weiland, a data scientist and infectious disease-modeler who tracks COVID-19, suggest that roughly three times fewer people in the U.S. will catch COVID-19 during this holiday season compared to those of previous years, although some regions will likely be hit harder than others. By Weiland’s estimates, up to 300,000 people in the U.S. are currently getting sick with COVID-19 each day, compared to around 1 million cases per day around this time in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of infections per day is not nothing, of course, but “that’s not a bad place to be for December numbers,” Weiland says.

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This season’s lower numbers are probably because of the long-lasting COVID-19 wave the U.S. endured this past summer. An unusually large segment of the U.S. population—around 25% or possibly even more, by Weiland’s estimates—got sick over the summer. That sizable group still has relatively fresh immunity, meaning fewer people than usual are susceptible to infection right now. And as an added bonus, there haven’t been many worrisome new variants—which could potentially evade that immunity—in recent months, Weiland says.

There’s still likely to be an uptick in cases this winter, fueled by holiday travel and gatherings and colder weather forcing people indoors. But current data suggest the wave will peak later than in previous years, and will perhaps be smaller overall. “There’s a good chance that this wave will be more mild than in previous winters,” Jetelina says.

There are, however, other respiratory illnesses to consider this holiday season. Influenza and RSV are both on the rise, and the common cold is everywhere too. “There are a lot of reasons to take precautions even beyond COVID,” Jetelina says. Wearing a mask, especially in crowded indoor areas, can help minimize transmission of not just SARS-CoV-2, but all respiratory viruses. Regular hand-washing also remains important, as does staying home if you’re not feeling well.

And if you haven’t gotten your updated COVID-19 shot, Jetelina says now is a great time to do so. COVID-19 vaccines are better at preventing severe disease and death than they are at blocking infections—but they do offer some protection against infection, especially in the first few months after receiving a dose. With viral spread likely to increase at least a bit as the winter goes on, “getting a vaccine right now is actually the ultimate timing,” Jetelina says.