Trump Should Rule Out Israel Annexing the West Bank

Will the second Trump Administration greenlight Israeli annexation of the West Bank? Several of the President-elect’s recent appointments have suggested at least a friendliness to the idea. Donald Trump’s choice for U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who has said in the past that “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian,” has told Israel’s Army Radio that “of course” Israeli annexation is a possibility, though nothing has been decided. Pro-annexation Israeli hardliners, seemingly bolstered by Trump’s picks, are pushing the idea with new verve.

Whether Trump intended to signal support for annexation is unclear, but if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu interprets it that way, tragedy is the likely result. If Israel absorbed the West Bank, it would erase any hope of a Palestinian state, cause enormous damage to U.S. global standing, and plunge a region where over 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed into the worst chaos it has seen since at least the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. It would be disastrous for U.S. interests and the Trump Administration should vigorously discourage it.

Israeli annexation of the heartland of a future Palestinian state would unleash massive unrest that could spur new waves of terrorism directed not only at Israel but the U.S. as well. Washington’s support for Tel Aviv was one of Osama bin Laden’s three stated rationales for declaring jihad against the U.S. Already, U.S. officials have testified to Congress that U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza could motivate future anti-American terrorism, given that Washington is the main arms supplier to Tel Aviv, possibly with “generational” impacts.  

Terrorism is not an existential threat. But terrorist attacks have repeatedly provoked Washington into actions that undermine U.S. security—including the 20-plus-year occupation of Afghanistan, the still-ongoing anti-ISIS campaign in Iraq and Syria, and other misadventures from the Global War on Terrorism. These self-inflicted wounds are a major reason the U.S. keeps getting sucked back into the Middle East, despite widespread agreement among foreign policy experts that Washington should focus its limited resources on a rising China and pressing issues at home. 

Additional dangers of U.S. embroilment exist beyond terrorism. Annexation of the West Bank could spur attacks from Israel’s enemies, particularly Iran, which could draw in U.S. forces. Though Tehran’s position has been weakened—with its ally Hezbollah decapitated and the friendly Assad regime deposed—Iran can still target Israel with drones and missiles.

The U.S. has already intervened multiple times this year to directly defend Israel from such attacks. Doing so puts the lives of U.S. troops at risk, which in turn raises the risk of all-out war between the U.S. and Iran.

Escalation risks are especially high now that U.S. personnel have been deployed to Israel to operate the THAAD missile defense system provided to Tel Aviv. Those soldiers—along with U.S. forces based nearby in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan—are obvious targets for reprisals by Tehran. Should an Iranian military strike injure or kill U.S. personnel, the pressure on Washington to respond militarily would be immense, even though a war with Iran would harm U.S. interests.

West Bank annexation could also undermine Israeli alliances with Egypt and Jordan and alienate European military partners who have assisted U.S. missile defense efforts, leaving Washington alone to shoulder the burden.

The ramifications for Jordan are especially troubling. Not only might Jordan refuse to participate in future missile defense, but West Bank annexation could jeopardize the survival of the friendly Jordanian regime. Serious tensions already exist between non-Palestinian East Jordanians and the 2.3 million Palestinian refugees, representing 20% of the country’s population, given sanctuary there. An annexation crisis in the West Bank could spur enormous refugee flows into Jordan that might destabilize the Hashemite kingdom for good. The last thing the U.S. needs is another failed state in the Middle East, especially with ongoing tumult in Syria.

On top of that, annexation would also likely unravel the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states in 2020, and which Trump has touted as one of his major foreign policy successes.

Unfortunately, recent personnel decisions by Netanyahu suggest an eagerness to interpret Trump’s signals as annexation greenlights. Immediately after Trump’s presidential victory, Netanyahu appointed Yechiel Leitner, a hard-right settlements advocate who favors Israeli “sovereignty” over the West Bank, as Israel’s ambassador to the U.S.

Encouraging Israeli annexation of the West Bank would be a terrible mistake, and Trump should signal unequivocal U.S. opposition to it. This would not be a rerun of when Trump recognized Israel’s 1981 Golan Heights annexation, which prompted little pushback. It is also far more dangerous than if Israel attempts to make its recent capture of Syrian territory in Mount Hermon and Quneitra province permanent.

An Israeli takeover of the West Bank would dramatically upend the status quo, trigger chaos, and further entangle the U.S. in the Middle East against its strategic interests.