Donald Trump’s Nomination of Pete Hegseth Is on Shaky Ground

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First came the raw shock of the nomination. A weekend host of a Fox News morning show to lead the Department of Defense, the largest employer in the United States? Really?

Then came a reminder that Pete Hegseth doesn’t think women should be in combat roles. And then a nudge to recall that the former National Guardsman thinks diversity and inclusion programs at the Pentagon spawn “wokeness” in the ranks. Then there were the stories about his past advocacy for people accused of war crimes despite opposition from those leading the Department of Defense at the time. And then the stories about his unit’s alleged involvement with war crimes. And his anti-Muslim rhetoric. And maybe a white-Christian-nationalism tattoo. And a flag based on that tattoo to his higher-ups in the military that he could be an “insider threat” who shouldn’t be let near high-pressure environments.

Fine, said the crew down at Mar-a-Lago, the de facto White House-in-waiting. Republicans close to the incoming Donald Trump Administration say the team heading back to Washington knew all of this before they nominated Hegseth as their pick to become the next Secretary of Defense and sixth in line for the presidency itself. Republicans in the Senate held steady, even if behind closed doors there was a sinking feeling that they were on a familiar rollercoaster.

But what caught the Trump team by surprise were the stories that came next. Hegseth is alleged to have sexually assaulted a woman at a Republican women’s conference in California. There is a police report. And there is a hush-money settlement. (Hegseth has denied the assault allegations, arguing the encounter was consensual, and noting the police did not charge him. He also has stood by both his political stances and the tattoo, which Hegseth said disqualified him from guarding President Joe Biden’s Inauguration despite being “just a Christian symbol.”) 

Each story came out in recent days before reports surfaced that his own mother sent him a poison-pen email accusing him of being a serial abuser of women and something of a cad. And then there was the one about him as a bad steward of money raised by the powerful Koch network, a sexist bully, and a drunkard on the job who got canned. And the one that said he billed his wife’s credit card for hotel hookup venues. And the one that claimed his former Fox colleagues worried about his alcohol consumption.

All of which would probably block any other incoming administration’s pick for a receptionist—let alone a Secretary of Defense—from creeping forward. But this is Trump, and he likes to provoke. His top aides doubled-down on Tuesday despite some grumbling that this mightn’t be the best use of their political capital. 

But here’s the thing about Trump: he’s loyal until he isn’t. Late Tuesday afternoon, it became clear the nomination was going wobbly in a big way. Hegseth can afford to lose three Republican Senators, and it looks like there may be a few more doubters than that. While plenty of lawmakers have taken the pro-Trump line, some like Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are signaling a “difficult” path ahead. Sen. Joni Ernst, a retired Army Reservist from Iowa who serves on the Armed Services Committee, says she plans a “frank” conversation with Hegseth. The Chairman of that committee, Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, said Hegseth will have to answer questions from his panel if he is going to weather the drip of negative stories. Some Republicans who have been inconsistent allies to Trump could break the nomination; many are watching Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Others are bracing for a whistleblower report and audit from Hegseth’s time running the Koch-backed veterans’ group.

Privately, Hill staffers are watching the nomination closely and with little certainty. Even as Trump’s team projected confidence, GOP leadership aides are increasingly skeptical. At least a half-dozen Republican Senators are seen as in play, according to three Hill aides.

This wouldn’t be Trump’s first Cabinet pick to go down. Trump really liked the idea of former Rep. Matt Gaetz to run the Department of Justice until it became clear he was going to be too much of a headache. The drip of bad news about Gaetz’s alleged sexual encounters with minors, drug use, and more—plus its dominance in the new cycle—proved too much for the President-elect. Trump can stand by someone as long as it doesn’t make him appear foolish; bad news is fine as long as it’s not new news to Number One. Crowding Trump off the front page is a fireable offense.

Gaetz’s downfall was the quickest exit of a Cabinet nomination in history so close to Election Day, rivaling a similar eight-day window that George W. Bush’s pick at Labor saw in 2000.

So far, Republicans who will control the confirmation—or not—of Trump’s Cabinet picks have largely held the line on Hegseth in a way they did not for Gaetz. But there are sufficient grumblings about moving forward with someone who has never before run something even comparable to the Pentagon to put the nomination in doubt. Senate Republicans fear Trump and his followers, but they also have to take a close eye on the person that will have Trump’s ear on major military action. There is a fine line between messy and untenable; Trump is testing it with Hegseth.

Democrats have, to this point, stepped aside and allowed Republicans to make trouble themselves. A favorite gif on the Hill since the nominations started has been some variation of someone watching with fascination as they toss popcorn in their mouths. Although Democrats won’t have a veto over Trump’s picks, they’re also not certain that they’re all going to get through. The chaos has already claimed Gaetz, and it, might soon be a fate shared by Hegseth or even Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick as the nation’s top spy master. Another pick raising eyebrows is Kash Patel, a former Hill hand who rose to become the Pentagon’s top aide during the first Trump term and is on deck to head the FBI. And of course there’s anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to head the Department of Health and Human Services.

For now, Trump’s team is telling allies to hold steady on the rest of the slate. Hegseth is on his version of a charm offensive with Hill offices, and many of the Republicans up there are signaling their fealty. “My position is what President Trump decides to do is what I will support,” Sen. Mike Crapo said when asked about the nominees going forward without so much as an FBI background check. (Since Crapo, an Idaho Republican, said this, the Trump campaign announced it would work with the feds on such vetting.)

And it’s worth remembering that for every moment of suspense when someone like Collins or Murkowski seems to balk at one of Trump’s moves, they were still more likely to side with Trump than not. Yet despite Trump’s strong support among the Senate’s rank and file, Hegseth still might be in trouble. Tuesday’s latest—that Hegseth billed hotels to his then-wife’s credit card while carrying out five affairs—further loosens his hold on the nomination. Trump loves to throw a surprise at his audience. He doesn’t like it the other way. Which may explain why some of his allies at the Capitol are not really investing their time preparing for Hegseth’s potential nomination hearing. Given just how messy the announced pick has been so far, that could be a waste of time. Washington is just watching for Trump to tire of this and move on to a different pick. Welcome to the Waiting Game, Trump’s Version.

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