What Donald Trump’s Win Means for Abortion

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Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago, 21 states have either tightened restrictions on abortion or banned it in almost all circumstances. Now, in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion, voters decided that they want to reelect the man who has claimed credit for that decision.

Former President and now President-elect Donald Trump has applauded himself for his role in the ruling, since he nominated three of the Supreme Court Justices who voted to overturn Roe in 2022. He called the ensuing flood of state-level restrictions “a beautiful thing to watch.” But when running for a second term amid polling that shows Americans largely support legal abortion, he attempted to soften his stance and said that he would not push for a national abortion ban as President.

“President Trump has long been consistent in supporting the rights of states to make decisions on abortion and has been very clear that he will NOT sign a federal ban when he is back in the White House,” Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign national press secretary, previously said in a statement to TIME.

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Still, Trump has repeatedly refused to say if he would veto a national ban if it crossed his desk as President—a scenario that’s highly unlikely unless Republicans earn significant majorities in both chambers of Congress. The Trump campaign did not answer this question in its statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris argued that Trump would further restrict abortion rights if reelected. Reproductive rights advocates, medical providers, and politicians have sounded the alarm over how abortion restrictions can prevent people from receiving medical care—even in life-threatening situations.

Trump has flip-flopped on where exactly he stands on the issue of abortion over the years. Although he said in a 1999 interview on NBC News’ Meet the Press that he was “very pro-choice,” by 2011, he described himself as “pro-life.” While he was President in 2017, he backed a bill that would have banned abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. In March 2024, Trump suggested that he would support a 15-week national ban, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the pregnant person is at risk.

“He has changed his mind on abortion a few times,” says GOP consultant Barrett Marson. “I don’t think Americans know whether Donald Trump has a solid and settled position on abortion, so predicting what he would do with any potential abortion law, as unlikely as it is to make it to his desk, I don’t think we can predict that.”

Many reproductive rights advocates, medical providers, and politicians believe that Trump will seek to impose a federal ban on abortion despite his recent statements. They cite Trump’s previous support for national restrictions and his connection to Project 2025, a presidential transition and policy proposal led by the right-wing think tank the Heritage Foundation that proposes cracking down on abortion pills. While Trump has distanced himself from the handbook, Project 2025 has ties to Trump and his campaign.

“I wouldn’t base any assessment of what a Trump presidency is likely to look like based on what he happens to say this day,” says Deirdre Schifeling, chief political and advocacy officer for the American Civil Liberties Union. “If you look at what he’s done in the past, he is the reason that we don’t have the same kind of protections and access to abortion today that we did for 50 years.”

Some Trump allies and anti-abortion activists say Trump will stick to his position to now leave abortion policy to the states. Kristan Hawkins, president of the anti-abortion group Students for Life Action, says she “[takes] President Trump at his word” that he “wants to end the federal connection to abortion,” adding that her organization “can work with him on this.”

The President-elect has said that he will be a “protector” of women. His campaign platform said that he and the Republican Party “proudly stand for families and Life” and that states are “free to pass Laws protecting” their rights. It said that he and the GOP “will oppose Late Term Abortion, while supporting mothers and policies that advance Prenatal Care, access to Birth Control, and IVF (fertility treatments).”

Trump’s running mate and soon-to-be Vice President, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, has previously voted against a bill that would have increased access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) and other fertility treatments. Vance has also previously supported banning abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest, but has since aligned himself with Trump’s position that the issue should be left up to the states.

Trump has come under fire for his inflammatory rhetoric and false claims about abortion during this election cycle. He has repeatedly accused Democrats, without evidence, of supporting abortion “after birth” (that is not abortion, but infanticide, which is a crime everywhere in the U.S.). Meanwhile, Harris cast herself as a champion of reproductive rights, pledging to restore the protections that Roe had guaranteed and garnering endorsements from organizations like the Planned Parenthood Action Fund (PPAF).

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Even if Trump doesn’t sign a national ban, he could make other moves as President that could impact abortion. Since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling overturned Roe, state-level abortion restrictions have often been fought in the courts. By the time Trump’s first presidential term ended in 2021, he had appointed 28% of all active federal judges, stocking the bench with conservative jurists who now wield significant power over abortion laws. “Appointing federal judges is a President’s truly lasting legacy that spans decades, at least,” Marson says.

Trump winning the 2024 presidential election will likely have a major effect on abortion policy, which is as unsettled as it has been in nearly 50 years. As Melanie Newman, senior vice president of communications and culture at the PPAF, previously told TIME: “The stakes are really extraordinarily high.”