How the Economy Is Doing in the Swing States

As always, the economy is on voters’ minds. A recent Gallup poll found that it’s the most important issue for many registered voters when considering the presidential candidates. Most of the data suggests that the U.S. economy is doing pretty well—employers added a surprising 254,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate fell slightly, to 4.1%.

But the United States is a vast place, and certain regions are faring better than others. This matters because some of the places doing especially well—and especially poorly—include some of the seven swing states expected to determine the election. Nevada and Michigan both have unemployment rates higher than the national average, for instance, while Pennsylvania's and Wisconsin’s economies are booming.

Studies suggest that how well a local economy is doing can influence voters’ perceptions of how the country is doing as a whole. So TIME broke down the economic data in each of the seven top swing states to examine how it could influence the tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Here they are, from worst to best:

Nevada – 5.6% unemployment rate

Nevada had the highest unemployment rate of any of the 50 states in September, at 5.6%. The figure is higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic and has been creeping up since May.

Nevada was hit particularly hard by the pandemic because the state’s economy is so dependent on gambling and hospitality, says Andrew Fieldhouse, a visiting assistant professor of finance at Texas A&M University. The state unemployment spiked to a whopping 30% in April 2020; the U.S. unemployment rate, by contrast, topped out at 14.8%.

Nevada recovered, but extremely slowly—the unemployment rate is still one-and-a-half percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. That’s because Nevada’s economy isn’t very diversified, with about one-quarter of its jobs being in the leisure and hospitality sector. “Nevada is really an outlier,” says Fieldhouse.

What’s more, the high costs of housing in the state may be making even employed Nevadans pessimistic about the economy. The average home value in Las Vegas is around $425,000, up about 50% since 2019.

Michigan - 4.5% unemployment rate

Michigan has long struggled with industrial decline as auto plants and other manufacturers closed their doors. Though the job losses have slowed from the mid-2000s, when Michigan lost around 300,000 manufacturing jobs, current economic conditions are hampering the industry. High interest rates keep consumers and companies alike from investing in cars or other vehicles, creating challenging times for some automakers. Stellantis—formerly known as Chrysler—said in August that it would lay off around 2,400 workers, or 60% of its employees, at a truck assembly plant in Warren, Mich., as it works to cut costs amid declining sales.

Auto manufacturing isn’t the only industry in Michigan, but other sectors are weak too. Rite Aid said in August it would close all its stores in the state. A forecast from the University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantum Economics predicts that non-automotive manufacturing will decline this year. What’s more, Michigan's professional and business sector is closely tied to its auto sector, so the forecast predicts more job loss there. “Cracks have started to show recently in the foundation of Michigan’s previously vigorous economic recovery,” the forecasters write.

North Carolina - 3.8% unemployment rate

North Carolina’s unemployment rate may be rising, but that’s not necessarily bad news, says Michael Walden, an emeritus professor of economics at North Carolina State University. Instead, it may be a sign of strength: More and more people are moving to the state faster than employers can create jobs. The state has about 260,000 more people in the labor force—working or looking for work—than it did in 2019.

North Carolina struggled in the past when its tobacco, textiles, and furniture industries declined, but it has remade its economy around technology, pharmaceuticals, and finance, Walden says. This shift has benefited urban and rural counties, as the state has developed a renewable energy corridor around a battery maker and a chipmaker, Walden says.

“The North Carolina economy is strong,” he says. “It shows signs of slowing just like the national economy, but there’s no worry of a recession.”

Georgia - 3.6% unemployment rate

Like North Carolina, Georgia has seen an influx of transplants from other regions of the country, growing its labor force to all-time highs. That may be one reason the unemployment rate in the state is climbing, from 3.1% earlier in the year to 3.6% in September. But economists at the University of Georgia are still optimistic about the state's economy—there are a "substantial" number of economic development projects in the pipeline, and its expanding role as a logistics center is bound to continue to create jobs, according to a forecast by Jeffrey M. Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business.

Arizona - 3.5% unemployment rate

Arizona shows how a strong job market doesn’t always mean voters feel good about the economy. The state’s unemployment rate is relatively low, at 3.5%, and its overall 2024 unemployment rate is the lowest since 2007. It has benefited from the expansion of chip makers like TSMC and Intel, the latter of which received $8.5 billion in CHIPS and Science Act funding.

But voters have told reporters that high housing costs and inflation in areas like grocery prices has meant that even solidly employed residents are struggling to achieve the milestones their parents did, like homeownership. The cost of a house in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, has doubled since 2019. Still, the state has seen a bump in homeownership since the pandemic, suggesting some people have benefited from the strong economy. Arizona’s homeownership rate is now 70%, according to Census Bureau data collected by Moneywise, up from 64% in 2020.

Pennsylvania - 3.4% unemployment rate

Pennsylvania’s economy is among the best of all the swing states. The unemployment rate has held steady at 3.4% in 2024. At no time between 1976 and 2020 did it get that low, according to government data. Even wage growth has been strong, outpacing inflation across most occupations, according to the Keystone Research Center in Pennsylvania, which analyzes the state’s economy.

“It really is the strongest economy in 50 years from a workers’ perspective in terms of their bargaining power with employers,” says Stephen Herzenberg, the executive director of the Keystone Research Center. Herzenberg has calculated that every county in Pennsylvania has a lower unemployment rate than it did before the pandemic. Many of the strongest job gains have come from rural and western parts of the state, which typically lag behind. Black and Latino workers have also made strides in the job market.

Much of the state’s recovery is being driven by American Rescue Plan money and other federal spending, Herzenberg says. But the private sector is doing well, too, with the state even gaining manufacturing jobs since 2023.  

Wisconsin- 2.9% unemployment rate

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the country, and has declined from the beginning of the year. In September, Wisconsin boasted the most jobs it’s ever had, which is actually providing a challenge for some employers in an aging state where waves of workers are starting to retire. That’s helped keep the unemployment rate low, but could prove a problem in the future if employers choose not to locate in the state because there aren’t enough workers, according to the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

Still, many Wisconsinites probably feel pretty good about the economy right now—the state is one of the few where wage growth has outpaced inflation. In July, the state ranked first in the nation for inflation-adjusted hourly earnings growth. Wisconsin’s average hourly earnings in September were $33.77, lower than the national average, but a big step up from 2019, when earnings were $26.77.