Indonesia’s New Capital—and Its Outgoing President’s Legacy—Is in Limbo

As Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, closes the curtains on his decade-long presidency, with his successor’s inauguration set for Oct. 20, he’s racing to raise the curtain on Nusantara, the country’s future capital and his pet project that has found itself in peril. 

Indonesia’s Independence Day on Aug. 17 was supposed to mark the inauguration of the new high-tech and green capital. But when the day arrived, only a scaled-back celebration was held at the presidential palace in Nusantara, with just 1,300 of the of the initially planned 8,000 attendees, surrounded by half-completed buildings. (Another ceremony took place simultaneously hundreds of miles away in Jakarta, the current capital.) While 12,000 civil servants were scheduled to move in by September, only a fraction of their designated apartments have been built; water and electricity supplies were only recently made available; and investment flows to the project remain dry.

Plagued by construction delays, the future of the $30 billion project is up in the air. And it will soon be left in the hands of President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who has said he supports the idea but has shown little interest in prioritizing it—a worrying sign for Jokowi, who has in recent weeks stepped up efforts to fast track the construction of Nusantara. 

“This is the last attempt of Joko Widodo to reassert his authority, to ensure his legacy,” Vishnu Juwono, associate professor in public governance at the University of Indonesia, tells TIME.

In his quest to prove that the development of Nusantara is going well, Jokowi spent his first night in the new capital in July—he didn’t sleep well, he said the next morning—held his first cabinet meeting earlier this month, and has been inviting influencers to tour the site and post about it.

“The new capital Nusantara is a canvas on which we can carve out the future,” Jokowi said as the cabinet meeting commenced on Aug. 12. “Not every country has the opportunity or ability to construct a new capital from zero.”

It remains unclear if Indonesia has that ability either. The challenges that plague Nusantara—from land rights disputes to environmental concerns to an unanticipated lack of private funding—have no quick fixes.

Amid lagging construction progress and a little confidence of financial return, Nusantara remains a hard sell to private and foreign investors, who according to the government’s plan were expected to provide 80% of the project’s funding. (The remaining 20% was to be covered with the Indonesian state budget.) However, of the 100 trillion rupiah or over $6.4 billion it had expected from investments by the end of 2024, Nusantara has only received about $3.5 billion—all from domestic companies and state-owned institutions.

While over 400 foreign companies have expressed interest in investing, no concrete deals have emerged, even as Jokowi embarked on a world tour to persuade foreign governments and businesses. Jokowi is now trying to entice investors with nearly 200-year land permits, which critics have slammed as a “clearance sale” of land that would harm local residents.

Meanwhile, the grand presidential palace built in the shape of a Garuda, the mythical bird-like creature on Indonesia’s national emblem, has been mocked online, and others have pointed to what they believe are signs of shoddy, rushed workmanship in the building.

Read More: Indonesia's New Capital Is a Monument to Its Democratic Decline

Political uncertainty has also cast a dark shadow over the sprawling Nusantara construction site. In June, the resignations of two chiefs overseeing the Nusantara project fueled speculation about its stability. And even if Nusantara stays on the next Administration’s to-do list, it looks to be far from the top of the agenda.

Prabowo told reporters earlier this month, while in Nusantara for the cabinet meeting with Jokowi, that he would “continue, and if possible finish” the project, but many remain skeptical that he will keep to his word. His populist presidential campaign had centered on a free lunch initiative, which is set to take a big bite out of the state budget. Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the incoming Vice President and Jokowi’s eldest son, said he did not plan to move to his official residence in Nusantara but would remain in his own house in Jakarta. 

For his part, Jokowi has acknowledged that the transition to Nusantara shouldn’t be rushed. His plan for now, it seems, is to simply make it impossible for his successors to ignore the 250,000 hectares of capital-in-progress.

“He’s building, developing the capital as much as possible, so that it reaches the so-called point of no return,” Yanuar Nugroho, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former deputy chief of staff to Jokowi, tells TIME. Whoever inherits the Nusantara project, Yanuar says, “wouldn’t want to be seen as someone who jeopardized that.” 

But what Jokowi’s successors could do, instead, is to drag out the construction until it is more politically convenient to give it up. “Nusantara could trundle along, and it could be quite slow,” Ian Wilson, a senior lecturer specializing in Indonesian politics at Australia’s Murdoch University, tells TIME. “If it becomes a white elephant project, if it’s draining too many resources when [Prabowo] has other political priorities, it would be quite easy for him to step away from it. And then that would serve to undermine the Jokowi legacy.”

To be sure, Jokowi has enjoyed widespread public support during his decade in office—even in the final stretch of his presidency, his approval rating hit a new high of 77%. And, to his credit, his attempt at moving the capital has gone further than any of his predecessors, who over the past decades have all in some way planned or tried to execute such a move.

Yet whether Nusantara succeeds or fails, political analysts say, his legacy may have already been written. A decade ago, Jokowi began his presidency being hailed as “Indonesia’s Obama” and “a new hope” for Indonesian democracy. But as his final term draws to a close, Jokowi’s reputation has been tainted by his apparent maneuvers to build a dynasty for himself in Indonesian politics. The political turbulence marking his final months in office, most notably allegations that he’s eroding Indonesia’s burgeoning democracy, have increasingly overshadowed the popularity that undergirded his tenure.

“Certainly, Jokowi will be remembered as someone who … started the building and the development of the new capital city,” says Yanuar. “But he’s also known as someone who destroyed Indonesian democracy.”

Last year, Gibran’s selection as Prabowo’s running mate—despite being under the minimum age required of candidates—was made possible by a ruling from the Constitutional Court, on which Jokowi’s brother-in-law sat as chief justice. Now, he’s trying to secure his influence over Golkar, one of the country’s biggest political parties, by installing himself and his allies in senior positions. And in recent weeks, his allies in Parliament tried to amend election laws, before pressing pause amid widespread protests, to pave the way for Jokowi’s youngest son Kaesang Pangarep to become a candidate for governor.

“I’m afraid that Jokowi, at the moment, even without [the Nusantara project],” says Yanuar, “Jokowi will not be remembered as someone who is wise. He will not be remembered as a statesman.”