How Arizona’s Abortion Ballot Measure Could Affect the Presidential Race

Arizona voters will decide in November whether to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution—a move in a key swing state that could have implications for the tumultuous and historic presidential election.

The Arizona secretary of state’s office confirmed to TIME that the measure will appear on the ballot in the November election after it had certified on Monday about 577,971 signatures—far surpassing the number needed to put the initiative on the ballot. Dawn Penich, communications director for the coalition supporting the initiative, Arizona for Abortion Access, says the group turned in the highest number of signatures by a citizens initiative in state history: more than 820,000.

The coalition, which includes reproductive rights organizations like the American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, celebrated the news. “Us moving forward with our ballot initiative and getting as much support as we’ve already gotten shows that Arizonans are tired of seeing their rights subject to the political whims of whoever might be in the legislature or whoever we may be in our courts, and they want to settle this matter once and for all for themselves through this citizens initiative process,” says Chris Love, spokesperson for the coalition’s campaign.

Arizona currently prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. The law, which was signed in 2022, includes exceptions for medical emergencies. The November ballot measure, Proposition 139, would allow abortions until a fetus could survive outside the womb, which is typically around the 24th week of pregnancy. It would also include exceptions after that if the pregnant person’s life is at risk or to protect the individual’s physical or mental health. It would “establish a fundamental right to abortion” in the state constitution and would prevent the state from banning or restricting access to the procedure before viability. States including Michigan and Ohio have previously approved similar measures.

Those who oppose the measure have said it goes too far, arguing that the mental health exception is broad and would allow people to end viable pregnancies. 

Having the abortion initiative on the ballot in November could have political effects beyond reproductive rights in Arizona. In the presidential campaign, it’s a key difference between Vice President Kamala Harris, who was central to the Biden Administration’s messaging on reproductive rights, and former President Donald Trump, who appointed three of the Supreme Court Justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Other Democrats have made it a main focus of their 2024 campaigns, and states including Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota are all set to vote on abortion rights this year.

The issue’s interplay with political races and how it affects turnout could be particularly determinative in Arizona, one of the most crucial battleground states in the 2024 election. 

“Arizona is a swing state; our electoral outcomes typically are razor, razor thin,” says Samara Klar, a political science professor at the University of Arizona. “We are seeing tiny margins of victory in very high-profile elections, and frankly, in local elections as well. So having something on the ballot that is going to mobilize voters to come out is really, really crucial.”

In other abortion ballot initiatives that have come before voters since the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Americans have largely sided with abortion rights and the issue has typically boosted Democrats. “Having abortion on the ballot is helpful for Democrats because it mobilizes the types of people that are going to support Democratic candidates,” Klar says.

Some polls show support for abortion rights among Arizonans. In March, Klar collaborated with YouGov on a survey of 800 registered Arizona voters. More than 40% said abortion decisions should be left up to a woman and her doctor, while about 25% supported a near-total abortion ban. A CBS News poll in May found that 65% of likely Arizona voters said they would vote “yes” on a ballot measure establishing a constitutional right to abortion in the state; 21% said they would vote against it.

Abortion policy in Arizona has been somewhat unsettled since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization two years ago. In April, the Arizona Supreme Court upheld an 1864 law that only allowed abortions to save the pregnant person’s life, with no exceptions for rape or incest. The Republican-controlled legislature then repealed the law, leaving a 2022 statute banning abortions after 15 weeks in place.

“There’s been a lot of confusion about what the status of the law in Arizona has been,” Love says. “Ensuring this right in the constitution gives Arizona voters the certainty that they’ll need to understand what their reproductive rights are and, again, take those matters back into their own hands and make those personal health care decisions with their families and their medical providers.”

And as Arizona voters head to the ballot box, the abortion initiative “absolutely could make a difference” in the presidential race, Klar says. “This is a tight state, a salient issue, and a very mobilizing issue.”