North Korea May Conduct Nuclear Test Near Date of U.S. Presidential Election, South Warns

North Korea may be considering a nuclear test near the time the U.S. presidential election is held to raise its profile, South Korea’s defense minister said, as Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the U.S. and its allies in Asia.

Seoul will reach a deal with Japan and the U.S. to standardize the tracking of missiles fired from North Korea, Shin Wonsik said in an interview Sunday in Tokyo. He was visiting the Japanese capital to sign a deal with the U.S. and Japan to lock in gains in security cooperation that have included joint military training.

“North Korea has completed preparations to conduct a nuclear test when a decision is made,” Shin said. “We cannot rule out the possibility of that decisive moment being right before or after the U.S. presidential election to raise its leverage against the U.S.”

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Pyongyang has a habit of timing its provocations to coincide with major political events. While Kim held three in-person summits with Donald Trump when he was president, North Korean state media rebuffed comments made by Trump on his connection with Kim. The regime has also had harsh words for the Biden administration and ignored its calls to return to long-stalled denuclearization talks.

North Korea last tested a nuclear device in September 2017—its most powerful atomic bomb by far with an estimated yield of between 120-250 kilotons. It is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses said in a paper released in January 2023, adding Kim was looking to have between 100 to 300 over the long term.

Last year, North Korea released photos of Kim inspecting the state’s biggest display of warheads since he took power about a decade ago, showing Pyongyang has made progress in miniaturizing the weapons. This could lead to testing to verify the capabilities of its newest bomb that’s designed to be used on a variety of delivery systems, the Open Nuclear Network said in a June 2023 report. 

The U.S., Japan and South Korea started real-time data sharing since December on missile launches and have come up with standard operating procedures for information sharing, Shin said.

“The three countries have almost reached an agreement on the SOP,” he said, adding he expected a deal to be signed soon.

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North Korea may also be emboldened to try a nuclear test due to cooperation with Russia that the U.S. and South Korea said includes arms transfers to help President Vladimir Putin in his assault on Ukraine. Kim pledged to provide unconditional support to Putin for his military efforts in Ukraine when the Russian president last month made his first visit to North Korea in 24 years.

The two also signed a mutual defense deal, rekindling cooperation that was forged in the Cold War and is now backed by the nuclear arsenals of the two. Putin has indicated Russia is ready to use its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to block any new sanctions on Kim for weapons tests in defiance of resolutions from the global body.

The risks to the world are enormous. A full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula could leave millions dead and cost the global economy $4 trillion in the first year, or 3.9% of GDP—more than double the damage from Russia’s assault on Ukraine, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Shin said North Korea has sent 12,000 shipping containers to Russia that could hold as many as 5.6 million artillery shells. The regime has also sent scores of ballistic missiles to help Putin in his war, Shin said.

“We believe that Russia is providing technical support not just for rockets but for the modernization of conventional weapons that North Korea wants,” Shin said. “We will have to monitor with time how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and lead to changes in its weapons systems.”

Shin’s visit to Japan is the first by a South Korean defense minister in 15 years. Cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul grew after conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office about two years ago and worked to repair ties that frayed due to historical issues. 

That led to the Biden administration stepping up trilateral cooperation, which has brought the Asian nations closer on security issues. The U.S. has positioned tens of thousands of its military personnel in both countries.

Shin lauded the improved relations and said they are in the interests of both countries. 

“Japan is safer when South Korea provides a shield at the frontline,” he said, referring to threats posed by North Korea. “For South Korea’s safety too, we are stronger when we have an assuring backing at the rear, from Japan.”