Can Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump? Here’s What Polls Show

The Democratic Party appears to be injected with new energy following President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday to drop out from the race and endorse Kamala Harris. She raised a record-breaking $81 million within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy, and as of Monday night, Harris has secured enough support from delegates at the Democratic National Convention to clinch the Democratic nomination.

But even if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee at the convention in August, concerns remain about her ability to compete in a general election against former President Donald Trump.

A slight majority of Americans have a negative opinion of Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight polling, citing polls conducted before Biden dropped out. Some 51% of Americans disapprove of Harris to 38% who approve. Trump has a higher disapproval rating at 53%, but 39% of Americans approve of him.

Aggregated election polls show Harris lagging behind the former President by a small, but not insurmountable margin of 1.5 percentage points on average, according to an analysis done by the Washington Post of 11 different pollsters. These figures are only a slight improvement on President Joe Biden, who trails Trump by 1.9 percentage points. However, all of these polls were conducted before Biden’s drop-out announcement, and surveys about the potential performance of hypothetical candidates are often inaccurate.

With those caveats, here are what some of the most respected polls show:

ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos

ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos conducted a poll from July 6 to July 9 interviewing 2,431 U.S. registered voters via phone. ABC News/The Washington Post polls are ranked second in FiveThirtyEight’s list of best pollsters after the New York Times/Siena College, which has yet to release a national survey on a Harris vs. Trump matchup.

Their survey found that Harris outperformed Trump by 2 percentage points. That was slightly better than Biden, who in the same poll, performed  exactly the same as Trump. However, this poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, which means that Trump and Harris were neck and neck.  

The Economist/YouGov

In a poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov from July 13 to July 16 that questioned 1,404 U.S. registered voters, Harris trailed behind Trump by 5 percentage points, performing worse than Biden, who trailed Trump by 2 percentage points. The margin of error on this poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos

Reuters and Ipsos conducted a poll on July 16 surveying 1,202 adults living in the U.S. in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump. The survey found that the former U.S. President narrowly edged out Harris by 1 percentage point. The same poll showed Trump outperforming Biden by 3 percentage points. The margin of error on these questions was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning that Trump and Harris—as well as Trump and Biden—were neck and neck in this poll. 

Yahoo! News/YouGov

Yahoo! News and YouGov conducted a poll from June 28 to July 1, after Biden’s botched debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump. The poll showed Trump outperforming Harris by 2 percentage points, the same figure he outperformed Biden by.

The poll also found that while 38% of voters who lean Democrat preferred Harris as the replacement for Biden, 42% believed that someone else would be a better fit for the nomination. The survey polled 1,754 American adults.

The New York Times/Siena College

The New York Times/Siena College poll is considered the most accurate in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight’s rankings. While they have yet to release a national survey on Harris vs. Trump, polls in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Virginia from July 9 to July 12 found that Trump led Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, within the margin of error of 3.7. Harris outperformed Trump by 5 percentage points in Virginia, where the margin of error was 4.2.