Ukraine’s Plan to Survive Trump

Officials in Kyiv have spent months gaming out what Donald Trump’s victory could mean for their war against Russia, and many have come away worried that his history of deference toward autocrats like Vladimir Putin, and his transactional approach to foreign affairs, would add up to disaster for Ukraine. But not all of their predictions are as dire as one might expect.

“The first eight or ten months, basically all of 2025, would be very hard,” a senior Ukrainian official tells TIME, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Trump would be likely to slash aid to Ukraine and push Zelensky to accept a peace deal skewed heavily in Russia’s favor. Like previous U.S. presidents, Trump could also seek a reset in relations with Vladimir Putin at the start of his term.

“But over time he will see that Putin cannot be trusted,” the Ukrainian official says. More important, he adds, Trump will eventually realize “that Putin can’t care less about Trump and his agenda. That’s when we could start to see some advantages from Trump. He will not want to be played by Putin.”

Among Ukraine’s political elites, such hopes for a second Trump term have been gaining traction in recent months. They are partly the result of a tendency among Zelensky’s team to spot opportunities and project confidence no matter how grim their situation. But their outlook on Trump has also been shaped by a simmering frustration in Kyiv with the way President Biden has responded to the war.

On Sunday, after Biden withdrew from the race, Zelensky praised his leadership in defending Ukraine against Russia. “Many strong decisions have been made in recent years and they will be remembered as bold steps taken by President Biden in response to challenging times,” he said in a statement.

Over the past two years, however, Zelensky and his allies have often complained that the U.S. response to the Russian invasion has been too slow under Biden, too hesitant, and too distracted by fears of Russian escalation. A growing number of them believe that if Trump takes power and decides at some point to help Ukraine, U.S. support would become more decisive.

Among those airing this prediction is Boris Johnson, the former British Prime Minister, who recently met with Trump at the Republican National Convention. “Having talked to Donald Trump this week, I am more convinced than ever that he has the strength and the bravery to fix it, to save Ukraine, to bring peace — and to stop the disastrous contagion of conflict,” Johnson wrote in an essay published on Friday in the Daily Mail. “Whatever some other Republicans may have said about Ukraine in the past, I believe that Trump understands the reality: that a defeat for Ukraine would be a massive defeat for America.”

Johnson, whom Zelensky saw as his closest European ally at the start of the invasion in 2022, would not be alone in making such arguments to Trump. A clear majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill have voted for numerous aid packages to Ukraine, most recently in April, when Congress approved an additional $61 billion in aid. Many traditional Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, have been firm in their commitment to helping Ukraine win the war.

In choosing his running mate last week, Trump sided with the more isolationist wing of his party; Senator J.D. Vance has been among the fiercest opponents of American involvement in Ukraine. But some in Kyiv maintain hope that Vance, in the role of vice president, could also be swayed over time. “He’s like a pendulum,” the senior Ukrainian official says. “His position swings from one side to the other,” he added, noting that, in the past, Vance had been one of Trump’s most strident Republican critics.

In trying to win over Trump and Vance, the Ukrainians are also counting on help from their allies in Europe and from the U.S. military industrial complex, which stands to earn enormous profits from the continued production of weapons for Ukraine. “They can explain to [Trump] why this benefits many people in America, especially in red states,” says the senior official. “It creates jobs. It supports the economy.” 

In recent months, as Trump’s standing in the polls has improved, Zelensky and his team have worked to strengthen ties with his allies in Congress and others close to the Trump campaign. “We can’t take sides,” says a second senior Ukrainian official, who has been directly involved in these efforts. “But we need to create more balance between them.”

One potential link to Trump’s circle for the Ukrainians has been Mike Pompeo, who served as the CIA director and Secretary of State during Trump’s first term. Pompeo, who has said he would be open to taking a senior post in government if Trump returns to the White House, has met at least twice this year with Zelensky’s powerful chief-of-staff, Andriy Yermak, once praising him as a “great friend.” Pompeo also took a seat last fall on the board of Kyivstar, a leading Ukrainian telecoms company.

Still, given the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential race, some of Zelensky’s close allies would rather avoid direct outreach to either campaign. The risks of siding with the wrong candidate are far too high. “Nobody knows what’s going to happen,” the second Ukrainian official tells TIME. “We just have to respect the institution, and we have to hope for the best.”