--- description: New surveys make clear the border is the clear top issue for voters, particularly in key swing states, where most don't trust Biden on the issue. title: Welcome to the Immigration Election image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7ef796b1bba4f572/698a5568e6e84a5bec2b2c8e/GettyImages-2133633275.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Politics](/section/politics/) ## Politics Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Immigration](/tag/immigration/) ## Immigration Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Welcome to the Immigration Election  by [Philip Elliott](/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Senior Correspondent Updated: Jan 19, 2026 10:52 AM CUTPublished: Apr 5, 2024 7:36 PM CUT  Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event focused on "Biden's Border Bloodbath" on April 02, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event focused on "Biden's Border Bloodbath" on April 02, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.Spencer Platt—Getty Images  by [Philip Elliott](/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Senior Correspondent Updated: Jan 19, 2026 10:52 AM CUTPublished: Apr 5, 2024 7:36 PM CUT _This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up_ [_here_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite "undefined") _to get stories like this sent to your inbox._ This could well be known among future historians as the Immigration Election. The issue has overtaken all others as the top concern among voters, both in national polls and among those in the handful of states that are truly competitive battlegrounds. And among the up-for-grabs voters, President Joe Biden is at a pronounced disadvantage, according to new surveys released this week. As fears of migrant crime and overwhelmed communities dominate the zeitgeist in parts of this very divided country, former President Donald Trump finds himself better positioned. The Wall Street _Journal_ on Wednesday released a massive set of [surveys](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-ad594acb "undefined") from seven swing states and found very few reasons for Team Biden to feel upbeat. The Democratic coalition is visibly fraying, with substantial bleeding among Black and Latino voters, and younger voters. The gender gap, too, is [showing](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-trump-polls-swing-state-takeaways-42e42d41 "undefined") a more suspicious audience among men in those swing states. Biden’s biggest [drag](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ%5FSwing%5FStates%5FPartial%5FMarch%5F2024.pdf "undefined")? The [border](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/election-2024-immigration-issue-voters-84916a17 "undefined"). As the number of people detained by U.S. border patrol has soared—most of them [voluntarily surrendering](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-20/illegal-us-border-crossings-aren-t-really-breaking-records?embedded-checkout=true "undefined") rather than being apprehended—surveys now [show](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/election-2024-immigration-issue-voters-84916a17 "undefined") immigration and border security as the most important topic that will [decide](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/04/03/trump-biden-abortion-border-2024-election/ "undefined") the outcome of Election Day, topping the improving post-pandemic economy. **Read more**: [_Operation Save Biden_](https://time.com/6958784/biden-campaign-strategy-problems-2024/ "undefined") This, of course, didn’t just happen overnight. Trump has steadily banged the drum on immigration dating to his first days as a candidate in 2015, seeking to sow fear by linking migration and crime, desipte native-born Americans actually having higher [statistical](https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21746/the-integration-of-immigrants-into-american-society "undefined") rates of crime. Hardly a day goes by when Trump isn’t lashing out at migrants who come into the United States illegally. In February, about 140,000 did so, according to officials, and Trump has been all too happy to cite those newcomers, often in dehumanizing terms, as an explanation for all that ails America. "They're not humans. They're animals," Trump [said](https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1775237818769436843?s=20 "undefined") this week in Michigan. Biden’s boosters rightly argue that while Trump may have advantages in six of the seven states’ polls, the former President is statistically leading in just two given the surveys’ margin of error. In fact, North Carolina and Arizona are the only places where Trump’s numbers are outside of the gray area, while Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain plausible toss-ups. While immigrations has influenced the outcome of past elections, it could be uniquely determinative in 2024\. And the fact remains that a majority of voters simply do not trust Biden’s approach to immigration and the border and, at least in those states, are looking at Trump’s tough-guy image as a viable alternative. By a margin of roughly 20 points, voters in those swing states give Trump the advantage on the issue. And it’s not just limited to immigration, either; Trump is notably ahead when voters are asked about inflation, the economy, mental and physical fitness to hold office, and to lesser degrees foreign policy. Only when voters are asked about abortion and broader threats to democracy does Biden rebound. Still, immigration remains a top issue—if not _the_ most important topic—in this campaign. And when voters are asked to grade Biden’s handling, it’s a big red F; at least 72% of those polled in the swing states are saying immigration and border policies are going the wrong way. Put another way: Biden is flunking on the topic that is, at least in this moment, defining this election year. _Make sense of what matters in Washington._ [_Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/signup?nln=dc-brief&source=dc%5Fonsite "undefined")_._ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6964104/immigration-illegal-election-trump-biden/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6964104/immigration-illegal-election-trump-biden/"},"headline":"Welcome to the Immigration Election","datePublished":"2024-04-05T19:36:30.000Z","dateModified":"2026-01-19T10:52:36.000Z","description":"Most voters in key swing states don't trust Biden on the issue.","url":"https://time.com/6964104/immigration-illegal-election-trump-biden/","keywords":["Immigration","Donald Trump"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7ef796b1bba4f572/698a5568e6e84a5bec2b2c8e/GettyImages-2133633275.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Philip Elliott","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt7ef796b1bba4f572/698a5568e6e84a5bec2b2c8e/GettyImages-2133633275.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Former President Trump Holds A Campaign Rally In Grand Rapids, Michigan","caption":"Former President Trump Holds A Campaign Rally In Grand Rapids, Michigan","creditText":"Spencer Platt—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/immigration/","name":"Immigration"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6964104/immigration-illegal-election-trump-biden/","name":"Welcome to the Immigration Election"}}]}] ```